That’s right, March is coming in like a Lion - a COLD Lion.  Our long-range outlook does show promise of a warmer, drier run of a few days, but in the meantime, What You See Is What You Get.  Best to get your Mug refilled.

Snow and rain/snow mixed is the type of precip ahead for the next few days.  Many ‘sea level’ location Patrons have reported sticking snow at times (remember, our general forecasts cover southern BC down to northern CA).  It melts fast, as the ground is relatively warm.  Afternoon temps will chill down another few degrees this weekend, as the ‘core’ of that cold air mass driving the current on/off showers moves overhead.  One only need to move up in elevation a few hundred feet to get ALL SNOW.  Accumulations above 1,000 ft are already impressive, and will continue to build through Monday evening, Mar 4.  Thus, expect plenty of precip through the weekend and Monday.

We do see a ‘window' of DRY this coming Tue & Wed Mar 5,6 around the PNW, as most of the storm action targets California.  Two days with chilly temps, but at least we may stop the rain/snow for bit.  Frosty, if the sky clears.  By Thu Mar 7, the cold, wet pattern returns - a repeat, if you will - with more cold air pooled in a large trough (Low pressure) over the Gulf of Alaska/eastern Pacific.  Next weekend, Mar 9,10, is trending to mirror the current one, so don’t expect Spring to arrive just yet.  Chilly, with on/off rain or snow/rain showers, and snow above 500-1,000 ft.

The wet pattern continues to start the week of Mar 11-15.  Temps will slowly notch up a few degrees as the week progresses.  Wet Mon, Tue, most of Wed.  Good news, though.  Model runs suggest a relatively WARM ridge of High pressure building over the west coast beginning Thu Mar 14.  The dry, mild period could last past the Ides of March (Fri the 15th) on into St Patty’s Day weekend.  Temps could tease the 60s, esp along the coast.  Let’s hope this break in the wet weather arrives, as the entire west coast will absolutely NEED to dry out.  The snowpack along all the west coast mountain ranges will be exceptional.

The comfortable Spring-like weather has passed.  Time for coats again.  

Cold air is making its way into the PNW.  Lots of low elevation - not surface - snow will be the story for the next couple of weeks, as a cold pattern is modeled to settle in for the extended period.  The colder air is still setting up to arrive later today into Tue, with a short period of slightly warmer temps mid-week until the next, stronger, cold front pushes onshore by Thu.  Plenty of rain, too.  The weekend ahead looks wet and quite chilly, with mix of rain, rain/snow, and snow above 500 -1,000 ft.  

Side Bar: The higher sun angle this time of year, combined with very cold air aloft, will trigger rapid ‘lift’ of air ‘packets’ generating thunder, lightning, rain, snow, small hail, and ’soft balls’ of snow & ice called graupel.  If the storm ‘cell’ is intense enough and lasts a bit, surface air can cool enough to change surface precip to all snow.  Accumulations are not likely to be much above an inch or so, given the above-freezing ground temps, but don’t be surprised to see The White, at times.  

After the coming weekend, models keep cold air over the eastern Pacific & Gulf of Alaska, which will continue to spin-off fronts of rain and/or snow, at times, into the PNW.  Windy, too.  Any travel over the coast range, Siskiyou or Cascade ranges will be treacherous.  The pattern for Mar 4-12 looks quite wet, breezy, and loaded with feet of mountain snowfall.  

Overall, the weather for early March will be the “Lion” of the month.  Hopefully, the “Lamb” and 60 degree wx will show up late March.  In the meantime, grab a coat.

Around the PNW, folks are focused on the chance for low elevation snow next week.  That focus has merit.  Mug up & read.

Today will be spring-like, as will tomorrow, although it will cool off a tad, esp over the Puget Sound.  Enjoy the next 24-48 hrs.  Cold, wet wx is coming.  The cold air mass is still targeting the PNW for early next week, but the Low pressure center is now modeled to track a bit farther north over southern BC, which could drive the coldest air farther north early next week.  HOWEVER, we do see quite chilly temperatures and definitely a rain/snow mix at the surface - if not all snow at times - for many locations west of the Cascades.  Above 500 to 1,000 feet, plenty of The White is probable.  (Lots of areas around the region above 500 ft.)  The warm ground will melt any snow quickly, unless a heavy snow band passes overhead to whiten the grass, etc.  We’ll see.  

Rain and lowering snow levels will push onshore late Saturday (NW WA, Vancouver Is., etc) into Sunday (SW WA & western OR).  By late Sunday night, temps will drop quickly, so don’t be surprised to see snow or snow/rain mix if you are out & about after sunset Sunday.  Monday Feb 26 looks showery with snow showers and/or rain/snow mixed at the surface.  Mountain snow fall will be HEAVY throughout the period, so travel prepared for safety.

Model solutions for mid-to-late next week are trending toward continued chilly temps, with two or three cold fronts passing by.  Southerly winds will hold snow levels “up” off the valley floor.  We could get a decent WIND event overnight Wed or Thu morning, with surface rain and rain/snow mixed at times until Saturday March 2.  Cold air may again settle in after the Fri night (Mar 1) storm, ushering in showers of snow or rain/snow mixed for BC, WA & OR. Snow east side and over ID.  Frosty morning possible Sunday Mar 3.

The first full week of March 2024 looks quite chilly and WET.  On/off rain bands are charting for the whole week.  Intense showers, maybe small hail, as the air mass overhead will be cold, and sun breaks will cause ‘lift’ to set off heavy showers.  Typical early March pattern for the great PNW.

Bottom line:  current mild temps will yield to colder, wetter conditions for several days.  Low snow levels will generate plenty of informal conversations amongst residents of the PNW.  Bundle up and keep that Mug hot.

Well, there is an interesting development in the long-range forecast involving ‘The White’.  Before that, let’s cover the week ahead.  Mug ☕️ time.

Cool & damp for the next 2+ days, as a Low pressure cell moves north off the OR coast while 'filling in' (weakening, as the center pressure rises).  Moisture will essentially move into the PNW from the south-southwest.  All of California will continue to get rain bands through Tue evening from the same Low.  

There is general model agreement as to a short dry spell late Wed through most of Saturday, Feb 21-24.  Temperatures will warm just a little - think 50s in most locations.  Straight sunshine may be a challenge, as cloud cover will vary across the PNW.  Late Saturday begins another interesting ‘winter’ event for the entire PNW and portions of California.

As noted in our last discussion, late Saturday evening a cold front will drop into the region from the NW, with very cold air trailing behind the front.  Indeed, the air mass is modeled to be the coldest since our last winter episode.  This time, though, it will arrive from off the eastern Pacific carrying enough moisture for lowering SNOW LEVELS by early Sunday.  Timing is variable, per usual, however, there is a high probability for SNOW at the surface for western WA & OR late Sunday on into early Tue.  Rain turning to snow - from N to S - is our call for sometime Sunday Feb 25.  The coldest air may not arrive until after sunset Sunday, but that doesn’t eliminate the best chance we have had for snowfall in several weeks.  Monday Feb 26 could easily be a ‘snow day’ for regional schools - keep that in mind & prepare, just in case.  We do not see an ice storm type of event.  We’ll update, of course, in our next discussion this Friday Feb 23

The snow event, should it develop, will be short-lived, lasting a day or two. This time, though, the ground will be warm, so melting will take place rather rapidly at first.  We believe the moisture will continue to move onshore long enough for accumulation.   A couple inches of snow on valley floors is not out of the question. 

The air mass will dry down late Tue into Wed Feb 27,28 and is likely to REMAIN dry on through Fri March 1.  ICY roads Wed morning.  Sip your commute ☕️ with caution.

The month of March is trending to start with cool days & the chance for showers during the weekend of Mar 2,3.  That said, models also indicate that moisture that weekend may follow the 'El Niño Path’ into California instead of the PNW.  If so, the weekend of Mar 2,3 may remain dry around the PNW.  So, too, could most of the following week of Mar 4-8.  We’ll see.

Bottom line: one more shot of The White on valley floors is looking possible in a week.  A lot can change, but that is why you are reading this —> to know the possible & plan ahead, just in case.

Wind. Rain. Showers. Sun. Low elevation snow.  That’s the basic wx prognosis for the rest of February.  Details require a full Mug.  Set?

A STRONG east wind is setting up for both western WA & OR today & Saturday.  An impressive storm system off the coast will slowly moving onshore across the entire west coast this weekend. At the same time, high pressure to the east will build for a day or two, literally shoving air towards that Low of the coast; hence, the strong winds.  The rain field from said storm will be stretched out south-to-north, with most of the heavier rainfall is modeled to target northern CA this weekend.  The PNW will pick up some precip, esp on Sat for western OR, SW WA.  Frozen precip will remain possible the farther east once travels over mountains or “through the Gaps.”

Next week, the PNW will not be completely dry as ‘wrap-around’ moisture from the California system will work its way north.  Cool temps.  However, by the end of the week, models do build a relatively warm, dry ridge into the PNW for a decent sunny Fri & Sat, Feb 23,24.  The 2nd half of the final weekend of February will turn cooler & DAMP on Sunday, Feb 25, with a winter cold air mass beginning to work into the region from the NW.  The freezing level will drop rapidly Sunday, when that colder air moves inland.  Rain, with a rain/snow mix at the surface - mainly over the Puget Sound - is possible.  Good addition to the 2024 snowpack.  

It looks WET and quite chilly as the last few days of Leap Year February get underway.  Model runs target steady, heavy rain over Vancouver Is., southern BC and NW WA (threat for localized flooding again!).  The northern half of Oregon & Idaho will be wet, as well.  Southern OR is trending mild & dry, should the ‘jet stream’ remain positioned over WA/BC.

By March 1st, steady rain may expand into OR with another large, cold Low pressure trough over the eastern Pacific spinning off cold fronts.  Snow level below the passes.  Early March is trending quite chilly & damp.  Typical for the region.  Let’s see how this all develops on the charts next week.