⚠️ YELLOW ALERT ⚠️

The “Kuril Islands Storm” (our term - see the Nov 15 discussion) is expected to arrive this Tue night & Wed with strong WINDS & HEAVY RAIN.  It may be the first in a string of storms that could cause MAJOR issues with flooding, both localized & key rivers in the Wed Nov 20 - SAT NOV 23 period.  Localized power outages are likely.  The main area of concern, as of this morning, is western OR & SW WA.  Full details will be published Monday.  A possibility, not a definite.  Plan accordingly, just in case.

As our tag line implies, interesting wx patterns are modeled to unfold in the near future.  Possibly.  Are you interested?  Grab your Fri morn’n beverage and read on - - -

Today, the middle of November already, will present as partly sunny, with a chance for a shower or two, mainly along the Cascades.  Chilly tonight, with chance for frost in the usual cold spots.  Saturday will start out dry, but another wet ‘warm front’ arrives, followed Sunday by a ‘cold front' - with plenty of cold air support -  presenting wet, wind and mountain snow that could exceed 12” by Monday afternoon.  Snow levels could drop to 1,000 - 1,500 ft in NW WA / 2,000 - 2,500 ft in OR.  Pass travelers should gear up for winter travel over “them thar hills”. 

Backstory.  Recall that key ’storm action’ happens when warm and cold air masses clash.  The boundary between the two, which we humorously speak of as ‘middle of the aisle’ being similar to the clash between political parties, is typically where surface storms form and travel along that boundary.  Well, a Low pressure system currently over northern Japan & the Kurill Islands will rapidly cross the Pacific and 'pair up' with a weak Low to the NW of Hawaii to form a POWERFUL deepening Pacific storm as it approaches the PNW.  Cold air over the Gulf of Alaska clashing with subtropical air over the central Pacific.  Remember our last forecast of the Giant High pressure Wall that models suggested would set up from the Yukon south to NV around Nov 20th?  That still develops on the long-range charts, but gets split in the ‘middle’ along its western edge (over WA, OR, northern CA) by the powerful Pacific storm approaching the PNW.   Oh, by the way, models drop the center pressure to 945-950 mb - equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane center pressure - when the Low is a couple hundred miles west of Vancouver Island Tue night. But, will we get hit?  Sip.

Back to the forecast.  With the info above in mind, we are changing the forecast for next week.  Instead of dry, with a strong east wind, for much of the week, our weather is now charting as wet nearly every day, turning STORMY on Wed Nov 20 as that Pacific storm moves close to the PNW.   —> Fortunately, the Low will NOT make landfall, rather, it will spin around offshore as it ‘fills’ and the pressure weakens, then it will shift backwards farther west, making room for another Low that will move up from the SW.  This one is likely to generate a strong WIND FIELD for coastal WA & Vancouver Is on Fri Nov 22.  Yes, both storms will spin off moderate-to-heavy rain bands, so expect a wet week, in. general.  There will be a brisk east wind in the Columbia Gorge as the Wed storm approaches, less so for the Fraser Gap, although still windy.  South winds will be the main play in west side locations.  

The weekend of Nov 23,24 is trending with rain moving north from CA/OR border on Sat (mostly dry, mild in WA), turning WET & windy for all on Sunday - and Monday the 24th.  Return to chilly conditions, too.

Thanksgiving Week:  another interesting turn in the weather is possible.  Take another sip.  Model solutions keep a Yukon Dome of 1040+ mb forming and reforming throughout the period discussed above.  By Thanksgiving week, a Yukon Dome is modeled to drop southeast, per usual, and this time it may have an impact on the PNW in terms of the coldest wx thus far in the fall of 2024.  Winds out of the Fraser Gap could be strong by midweek; stronger still on Thanksgiving.  Chilly, but too early for forecast temp - think at least frosty mornings.   High pressure ridge of 1050+ mb possible over northern ID on Black Friday, setting up a windy but dry Thanksgiving weekend.  We’ll see.  These patterns often present snow and or freezing rain issues for west side locations.  More next forecast.

As our tag line implies, interesting wx patterns are modeled to unfold in the near future.  Possibly.  Are you interested?  Grab your Fri morn’n beverage and read on - - -

Today, the middle of November already, will present as partly sunny, with a chance for a shower or two, mainly along the Cascades.  Chilly tonight, with chance for frost in the usual cold spots.  Saturday will start out dry, but another wet ‘warm front’ arrives, followed Sunday by a ‘cold front' - with plenty of cold air support -  presenting wet, wind and mountain snow that could exceed 12” by Monday afternoon.  Snow levels could drop to 1,000 - 1,500 ft in NW WA / 2,000 - 2,500 ft in OR.  Pass travelers should gear up for winter travel over “them thar hills”. 

Backstory.  Recall that key ’storm action’ happens when warm and cold air masses clash.  The boundary between the two, which we humorously speak of as ‘middle of the aisle’ being similar to the clash between political parties, is typically where surface storms form and travel along that boundary.  Well, a Low pressure system currently over northern Japan & the Kurill Islands will rapidly cross the Pacific and 'pair up' with a weak Low to the NW of Hawaii to form a POWERFUL deepening Pacific storm as it approaches the PNW.  Cold air over the Gulf of Alaska clashing with subtropical air over the central Pacific.  Remember our last forecast of the Giant High pressure Wall that models suggested would set up from the Yukon south to NV around Nov 20th?  That still develops on the long-range charts, but gets split in the ‘middle’ along its western edge (over WA, OR, northern CA) by the powerful Pacific storm approaching the PNW.   Oh, by the way, models drop the center pressure to 945-950 mb - equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane center pressure - when the Low is a couple hundred miles west of Vancouver Island Tue night. But, will we get hit?  Sip.

Back to the forecast.  With the info above in mind, we are changing the forecast for next week.  Instead of dry, with a strong east wind, for much of the week, our weather is now charting as wet nearly every day, turning STORMY on Wed Nov 20 as that Pacific storm moves close to the PNW.   —> Fortunately, the Low will NOT make landfall, rather, it will spin around offshore as it ‘fills’ and the pressure weakens, then it will shift backwards farther west, making room for another Low that will move up from the SW.  This one is likely to generate a strong WIND FIELD for coastal WA & Vancouver Is on Fri Nov 22.  Yes, both storms will spin off moderate-to-heavy rain bands, so expect a wet week, in. general.  There will be a brisk east wind in the Columbia Gorge as the Wed storm approaches, less so for the Fraser Gap, although still windy.  South winds will be the main play in west side locations.  

The weekend of Nov 23,24 is trending with rain moving north from CA/OR border on Sat (mostly dry, mild in WA), turning WET & windy for all on Sunday - and Monday the 24th.  Return to chilly conditions, too.

Thanksgiving Week:  another interesting turn in the weather is possible.  Take another sip.  Model solutions keep a Yukon Dome of 1040+ mb forming and reforming throughout the period discussed above.  By Thanksgiving week, a Yukon Dome is modeled to drop southeast, per usual, and this time it may have an impact on the PNW in terms of the coldest wx thus far in the fall of 2024.  Winds out of the Fraser Gap could be strong by midweek; stronger still on Thanksgiving.  Chilly, but too early for forecast temp - think at least frosty mornings.   High pressure ridge of 1050+ mb possible over northern ID on Black Friday, setting up a windy but dry Thanksgiving weekend.  We’ll see.  These patterns often present snow and or freezing rain issues for west side locations.  More next forecast.

We lift our Mugs to all Veterans in honor of their service.  A dry spell is now appearing on the long-range charts.  In the meantime, a rainy week ahead.  Here goes - - 

A cold front passed overnight, so expect intermittent rain, showers & possible thunderstorms today on into Tue; breezy, too.  Overnight Tue, the second storm of this series arrives.  This one will be stronger & pack more moisture and WIND, so expect moderate-to-heavy rain to be in play overnight on through the day Wed Nov 13.  Rain, showers and lowering snow level overnight Wed into Thu.  Thursday does look wet early then turning drier as the sunsets.  With clearing expected Thu night, temps will begin to cool down notably.  Chilly Friday and risk of FROST Saturday morning around the region; could be a bit of fog, as well.

The weekend does chart as dry on Saturday, with the last of the series of Pacific storms moving onshore early Sunday the 17th, from north to south.  This system will usher in notably colder air, so periods of SNOW east side is probable overnight Sunday into early Monday Nov 18; although the lower Columbia Basin should simply gets cold showers.  

Refill Time.  You may recall our Ponder Point last week about North Pole air moving south, melding with a High pressure ridge over the Chukcia Sea, to set up a Yukon Dome of of 1040+mb pressure the week of Thanksgiving.  Well, it looks like models have moved up the dates of that prog to begin approx. a week early - Mon Nov 18.  Therefore, after the Sunday Nov 17 cold front passes, the PNW could be in for a stretch of DRY weather - with POWERFUL Columbia Gorge outflow winds beginning Tue the 19th.  Yes, the Fraser Gap will also usher in a strong wind field, but not a severe the Columbia Gorge situation.  Please make NOTE:  the air mass is NOT super “winter cold”, so we are not projecting a winter event; rather, a strong easterly flow down the Cascade passes, Fraser Gap and Columbia River Gorge to set up crystal clear days for Tue - Sat Nov 19-23.

—>  The Giant High Pressure Ridge is modeled to extent from the Beaufort Sea all the way south to northern NV!!  (Everyone is searching for the location of the Beaufort Sea.)  Center pressure charts at 1050+ right over Yellowstone Nat’l Park Thu Nov 20.  Should this pattern verify, expect powerful winds pushing down and out towards the WA, OR & CA coasts from that High center.  Yes, California’s Santa Ana winds will make news, along with the ‘Gap Winds’ in the PNW.  Fire issues will be dangerous for southern CA.  

We see a lessening of the winds by Sunday Nov 24th; continued dry for a few more days.  Rain may arrive again around ’travel time’ the day before Thanksgiving.  

Per expectations, model solutions for the rainy period ahead have made adjustments.  Refill time and let’s review the potential for wet weather this November.

Enjoy today and possibly early Sat Nov 9, as temps will be mild and sport some sunshine, at times.  Rain will move inland later Sat, let up a bit early Sunday, then begin in earnest late Sunday through Veterans Day.  We should see some breaks on Tue, although cold air aloft is likely to spawn a few showers.  We may also get a few thunderstorm as the Veterans Day storm draws in cold air aloft.  

Wednesday Nov 13 looks VERY stormy with wind, rain, mountain snow - the whole fall storm show.  Heaviest rainfall is modeled for western WA, although the entire PNW will be wet.  Rapid creek, stream and river rises are likely, so be alert!  Eastern basins likely to get a tease of rain/snow mix, with snow in the higher elevations east side & northern ID.  Thu & Fri next week look damp, mainly from frequent showers; definitely cool temps.

The weekend of Nov 16,17 has charted as very wet, then not too wet - even dry- then a mix.  No definite pattern charting.  We will forecast a chance for precip, mainly over western WA & NW OR.  

We may catch a break in the ‘wet-every-day’ scenario on Monday Nov 18 and possibly most of Tue the 19th.  After that, WHAM, right back into steady rainfall, wind and mountain snow for a few more days.  In fact, Patrons should prepare for heavy rain and possible issues with flooding, esp in locations prone to stream/creek/river flooding.  Stay alert, please.  Moderate-to-heavy rain daily from Wed the 18th through Sunday the 24, if model’s verify.  We see LOW snow levels after Sat Nov 23rd storm passes, so expect snow on coast range & definitely Cascade passes.  

Ponder Point: per the discussion above about low snow levels around the 24th — we are monitoring a High pressure dome literally over the North Pole shifting SW over interior Alaska, joining up with a bitter cold air mass over the Chukchi Sea (another High pressure dome charting at 1042-1045 mb) which could lead to our key winter action indicator: a 'Yukon Dome' 1040 mb+.  We will keep an eye on such a development, as weather during Thanksgiving week could be quite interesting.  Just a ponder point for now, Patron.

Bottom line: plenty of classic fall rain, winds and mountain snow remains in the picture for much of November.  

Personal Note:  It is hard to believe that The Weather Café®️ was founded 30 years ago this week.  I was 41 years old.  Many Patrons have been with us since the beginning - our Cornerstones, if you will; some have passed away (including my first wife, Kay - married 46 years); still others have only recently become Patrons of this venture.  WELCOME.  The ‘staff’ - me, myself & I - have produced over 3,100 forecasts, plus Special Statements, radio interviews, presentations across the PNW and specialized help for traveling Patrons.  The forecasts are read by thousands around the PNW, and as far away as the United Kingdom & the Philippines.

—> Please post a note directly to rrufus@yahoo.com, if you like, as feedback for this free community service is greatly appreciated and motivating.  In the meantime, grab your Mug and catch the latest outlook.

Today, Monday Nov 4, will turn rather stormy with rain, wind and cool showers.  Tue will be a transition day into a short dry period, lasting through the balance of the week.  Take advantage of dry break!  Speaking of this week, the coldest nights of fall, to date, are possible later this week.  FROSTY.  Foggy, too, in the usual places.

Friday night will begin the transition back into an extended wet cycle.  The wet pattern could last through at least Nov 20.  Expect measurable precipitation every day for the entire period, some of which will present as moderate-to-heavy rain, lots of mountain snow, and wind.  Given nature's variance, we’ll simply suggest that the wettest days in the series ahead will be overnight this Sunday into Veterans Day, Tue night into Wed the 13th, Fri night Nov 15, and super wet Sunday, Mon, Tue Nov 17-19. 

After the 19th, we see the potential for a couple days of dry, chilly weather; possible frosty mornings.