“…Off the models, everyone.”  Indeed, the current long-range outlook is dry.  Let’s take a look.

Other than a possible shower or two in the far NW corner of the PNW (Vancouver Is., northern WA Cascades) early this week and again this coming weekend, we do not see ANY notable precipitation through at least Oct 20.  Sure, models do trend back-n-forth, but for now, the charts keep stable High pressure patterns blocking any normal fall Pacific storms from our region.  

Easy forecast:  Mild temps, with very little risk of frost, over the next 2-3 weeks.  Stop by again on Friday for an update.  Maybe rain will return to our forecasts.

As the tag line suggests, our wx for the next couple of weeks is trending to be mild, with a couple shots of precipitation just to remind us it is fall, after all. Got your fav morn’n beverage refilled?

This weekend looks fine, although a few clouds will linger over the Puget Sound area.  Sunday will be quite breezy in OR, because a High pressure ridge will set offshore, coupled with a Low over the continental divide.  Leaves will be "a blow’n”.

We see generally dry conditions next week, with a few extra clouds over the Puget Sound on Tue & Thu, thus the possibility for a shower or two.  Friday looks pleasant, but by afternoon or nightfall, the leading edge of an October storm will be making its way onshore.

The weekend of Oct 5,6 will likely start out WET on Sat, with clearing from the north by Sunday morning.  Dry late day Sunday — with a run of 5 or 6 days of dry, mild weather through Oct 11.

Another damp weekend may develop Oct 12,13, especially over western WA and southern BC.  We suspect this outlook will change.  

On the Mild Side.  We do not see a frost threat through at least Oct 15.  Low temps in the upper 30s are possible east side after next weekend’s cold front passes.  Although the lack of an early frost does ’tap down’ the brilliance of fall colors, lots of foliage is beginning to color-up.  Enjoy.

Ponder Point:  During our 44 years of attempting to forecast PNW weather, the following has proven to be a factor.   Long-range weather models tend to present a higher level of variance in the summer-fall transition (as well as winter-spring).  With this year’s La Niña setting up, it may take the 'computer brains' a bit longer to adjust.  We’ll understand.  

Greetings.  Let’s get this week going, shall we?  Mug full?

Dry today and Tue, with tomorrow turning quite warm, esp in the Willamette Valley (85-90F possible).  A notable WIND this afternoon & evening in western OR.  On Wed, we can expect some rain and cooler temps, with showers lingering into Thu.  Another weak system may provide additional precip Thu night into early Fri, but mainly north Chehalis.  

Our coming weekend looks quite pleasant.  Dry & mild-to-warm (70s to 80s), along with rather WINDY in southern OR, west & east.  Continued dry & mild the following week.  

The big change begins on Fri Oct 4, if models verify.  A warm, ‘water-logged' Pacific storm is charting to arrive on the 4th.  Center Low pressure could enter the range of pressures that generate powerful winds, so we will monitor this system closely.  For now, the storm tracks inside the 130W line, which usually is the first qualifier for our strong wind producers.  Barometric center pressure could be in the 985-988 mb as the center crosses Vancouver Island ~ Friday night.  Our dangerous wind storms have center pressures ~960s - mid 970s.  As it stands now, that system could be our first notable wind and heavy rain storm of the fall season.  Stay tuned.

WET the weekend of Oct 5,6. Mostly showers on Sunday and again on Mon Oct 7, to get another week started.  It should dry out by Tue the 8th, with mild-to-warm temps for much of that week.  

There are changes in the long-range outlook since our last update.  Best to refill that Mug, Patron. 

End of Astronomical Summer.  The weekend ahead will be dry & mild, with summer ending early Sunday morning.  For Patrons north of Chehalis, a weak system clipping southern BC will usher in clouds and chance for showers late Sunday into Monday; the rest of the PNW should remain dry and pleasant.   Fall Equinox is early Sunday.

For the week of Sep 23-27, Oregon will have dry conditions with mild to warm (80s), temperatures.  A couple weak systems are charting to bring a clouds with scattered showers for areas north of Longview on Wed and again Thu night; dry otherwise.  Northern Vancouver Island looks damp most of next week.  

Go Figure.  You guessed it, the models reverted back to the drier pattern mentioned earlier, dropping the heavy rain next week and the last weekend of September.  Such a swing for planning, but that is the nature of forecasting Nature.  We now see dry weather, other than the few showers noted above, for the entire PNW from now through Oct 3.  In that period, there could be a few days with temps climbing into the 80s, esp in the Willamette Valley.  

Rain.  If (and that is a big if) models are correct, moderate-to-heavy rain will arrive the weekend of Oct 4,5.  Keep your Mug handy, as fall has a way of surprising even the best weather models & forecasters.  

There is a possibility that a significant change in the long-range outlook is developing.  Not definite yet, but important for us to consider the impact late month, esp on fall harvests.  For now, grab your fav morn’n beverage and read on.

Today will be pleasant, as we wait the arrival of fall-like rain tomorrow.  Models suggest a quarter-to-half-inch of precipitation is possible around the region from the coming system.  Expect Tue to be cooler & WET.  The rain should diminish overnight Tue, with scattered showers lingering early Wed.  The balance of the week will be dry & pleasant.  Scattered showers in California.

The wx this coming weekend is not quite ’settled’ by the models.  It could be WET from Chehalis north; dry & mild for OR and to the east, or mild with increasing clouds & chance for showers regionally by Sunday.  

🫤 Why the uncertainty, especially given that precious charts indicated a dry pattern for the balance of September?  The problem, as we see it, is that models are struggling with a potentially large scale shift in the overall upper level wind pattern.  Meaning - - a change to a classic period of fall rains, wind and generally stormy weather for a week or longer.  Gone would be a dry end to the month.  Given that potential, we will posit the following forecast, right or wrong.

Whether or not the coming weekend remains unsettled, NEXT week will begin the change to a WET & stormy pattern, as the ‘jet stream’ shifts to favor such development.  Therefore, expect the wet system over Vancouver Island Sunday night to continue spreading south into the entire PNW by Tue Sep 24.  Breezy.  Showers post-frontal passage are likely Wed & Thu.  A break on Fri, with sunshine and mild temps before another much wetter system arrives overnight Fri the 27th into Sat.  Heaviest rain will fall north of Portland.  Sip.

On Saturday the 28th, another storm will develop farther to the south, the center of which will push onshore around Astoria.  Heaviest rain will fall in the Willamette Valley, south.  Concurrently, in the Gulf of Alaska, systems will begin to deepen into powerful fall storms, the first of which will make landfall in the Alaskan Panhandle, but have a large rain (and wind?) field that keeps the PNW wet late Mon into Tue Oct 1.  The Puget Sound region will likely to be hammered with rain.  Cumulative precip throughout this period could exceed 2 inches in the lowlands, 4-6 inches in the Cascades & coast range; more so for coastal BC.

The details above are likely to vary, of course, but the point here is to prep you for a week of wet weather as the month of September ends.  (Long-time Patrons know that often model outlooks revert back to earlier progs as the solution, so all this rain talk over coffee could be null & void.)  We’ll see what charts on Friday.