The WxCafe™

Cooler

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 12, 2024

Monday August 12

Our atypical August cool-off has begun. How long will it last? Your role: refill that Mug; mine: get on with the answer.

An onshore flow, which cools down much of the PNW, has arrived. A repeating morning marine cloud deck will burn off by the afternoon, with plenty of afternoon sunshine inland away from the coast. A weak Low will push close to the WA close, north of Astoria, by the coming weekend, so expect lingering clouds and a chance for a few showers late Saturday into early Sunday Aug 18, mainly north of Chehalis up into Vancouver Island.

Next week will also start out on the cool side for August, but by Thursday, we see a return to summer heat. Temps should pop back up into the upper 80s to 90s across the entire PNW (bit warmer in the eastern basins, per normal) from Thu through the weekend of Aug 24,25. Onshore flow is possible again by Mon Aug 26.

By the way, the cumulative amount of precipitation mentioned above is not likely to be much more than a ten of an inch (excluding higher elevations). Water management teams will not change course.

Along with the ’songs of summer’ - presented nightly by our regional cricket species, wine grapes are now undergoing veraison - the process when chlorophyll in grape skins is replaced by anthocyanins (red grapes) or carotenoids (white grapes). Wine grapes transition from growing to ripening during veraison - the pivotal point in the lifecycle of wine grapes. Ah, August in the PNW.

"Anxiety does not empty tomorrow of its sorrow; it empties today of its strength."

-Rufus

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Cooler Half

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 09, 2024

Friday August 9

Greetings, Patron. Another morning update, with coffee ready.

Pleasant temperatures ahead next week as an onshore flow will tap down the summer heat. This weekend will begin the cooler period, as well. Coastal locations will have increasing morning marine clouds, and a cool onshore breeze. Warm & dry for the next 10 days or so.

The ’turn’ for moisture is now delayed a few days. A Low pressure trough (mentioned last time) will move south of the coast during the weekend of Aug 17,18; then shift back north before slowly moving inland over western WA by the 20th. A secondary Low will also develop, ushering in a greater chance for rain or showers Tue night and Wed Aug 20,21. This could turn out to be a cloud event, rather wet, but either way, temperatures will be cooler-than-normal for August. Thursday Aug 22 should be dry, with a few clouds. More showers, or even a steady light rain, look probable on Fri the 23rd, on into the last weekend of Aug 24,25.

How long will the cool pattern hold? Hard to tell right now, of course, but the position of the Pacific High that keeps us in a 'summer-mode' will shift farther west, opening the door for cooler air from the north to drop in along the ‘eastern flanks’ of the Pacific High. Often this is referred to as a ‘dirty high’, with weak, damp Lows moving south into the PNW, or at least cooler air masses. Should this verify, the last 10 days of August look ‘fall like’.

The cooler pattern - and associated moisture - will greatly aid in fire fighting around the PNW. Let’s hope it verifies.

“A husband who shops with his wife is a wait-watcher."

-Rufus

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Moisture Possible

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 05, 2024

Monday August 5

Summertime forecast - dry & warm. That’s about it for the next 11 days, then a change could be in the works. Refill your Mug and read on.

Indeed, warm-to-hot for another week, with temps presenting in the 85-95 degree range inland from the coast. This will include the coming weekend.

Models hint of a Low pressure trough moving south off the WA & OR coasts during the middle of NEXT week (~AUG 14), ushering in a period of elevated humidity & somewhat cooler temperatures. By the end of next week, that Low may move closer to the coast, and also shift back to the north - oddly without ever crossing inland - setting up the chance showers late in the week over both western OR & WA. Showers could increase by the weekend of Aug 17,18. We’ll see if this verifies. Moisture from that weak system could help tap down the forest fires, particularly in Canada.

Beyond the 18th, another Low may move southeast along the BC coast, opening the door (possibly) for additional showers around the PNW. We should get a better ‘read’ on this pattern in the next report.

"The cost of living has gone up, but most people think it’s worth the price."

-Rufus

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Expected Wx

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 02, 2024

Friday August 2

We now Enter the last full month of the summer season. The weather ahead looks exactly like one would expect for August in the PNW: Dry & Warm. Iced coffee time. Mug up, Patron!

Simple forecast for all the PNW: Dry through at least Aug 16. Temps will range from the 60s along the coast and bounce around between 85-95 degrees inland; tad cooler around the sound, tad warmer east side.

Thunderstorms / showers are possible the weekend of Aug 17,18; the first threat of widespread measurable precipitation around the PNW.

🌀Tropical Topical: DEBBY likely to be named soon. The dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer over the tropical Atlantic is lessened in the area around Cuba, where this system is now entering. Models are finally picking this up and pointing out possible tracks. The sooner it strengthens, the sooner it will make a more northerly turn; if it stays weak and crosses into Gulf of Mexico (GOMex), all bets are off. Some model projections run DEBBY up across central FL as a weak depression, then strengthening as it tracks up the eastern seaboard; outlier solutions run DEBBY into the GOMex, where all kinds of paths become possible, including crossing over FL then up the eastern seaboard or threatening the FL panhandle.

From the ’Net: “I’ve come to the conclusion that my memory is like an Etch A Sketch; I shake my head and forget everything."

-Rufus

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Toasty Nineties

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 29, 2024

Monday July 29

Refreshing showers this morning. Ahhhh. July ends with mild conditions and a gentle touch of precipitation. Enjoy the coolness because the 'toasty nineties' return with a new month. Mug refilled?

We never shy away from making errors, as this morning’s light rain confirms. Last report, we just didn’t see a strong enough pattern to usher in some rain today — we were way wrong. But, a delightful mistake anyway, unless you have just bailed that hay or alfalfa. It will dry off quickly. Warm weather returns this week, as models project another round of HOT temperatures beginning later this week.

By Thu, temps will rapidly rebound into the upper 80s-to-low 90s in many OR locations; the heat will expand northward on Fri for a 5 day run of 90+ temperatures around western OR & WA this weekend on through Tue Aug 6. Yes, east side, too.

By the middle of next week, Aug 7, temps may get tapped down a few degrees, as a weak onshore flow begins to develop. It may not be strong enough to ‘clear out’ 90 degree heat in the southern Willamette Valley until Thu or Fri, Aug 8,9.

The weekend of Aug 10,11 is trending pleasantly cooler, with an onshore breeze & morning marine cloud deck; warmer temps return to start the week of Aug 12. Indeed, summer remains in play.

“Wouldn’t is be nice to be as sure of anything as some people are of everything?”

-Rufus

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