Lots of snow in some PNW locations, esp north of Everett; others have none.  The current air mass is cold enough for snow or snow showers, it’s just the lack of precip that prevents The White everywhere.  As we sip our morn’n bev, the question arises, “Is there any more snow on the way?”  Well - - - 

Maybe.  Cold, modified Arctic air yet is charting to continue sliding into the PNW this week (esp out of the Fraser River Gap).  The rather stationary Low offshore will shift a bit this week to allow for a couple snow bands to move onshore, with the likelihood an inch or two of snow may stick the farther north one is located.  Later this week, a stronger band of moisture will move onshore, primarily over southern OR - maybe southern Willamette Valley - for additional snow or snow/rain mix.  Overnight subfreezing temps could make travel-by-road a cautionary tale.  

The PNW will remain on the cold side heading into the weekend, with continued chance for snow, snow/rain mix, or plain rain.  Trending drier for the first couple days of next week - Feb 10,11, before a normal, wet-pattern series of Pacific storms move onshore.  The first is charting for Wed the 12th.  While the Wed system should present as rain for western OR, there is an elevated chance for a snow event over for the Puget Sound area and Columbia Gorge / eastern basins.  A stronger system yet will arrive Thu night Feb 13, which should finally ‘blow out’ the last remnants of cold air in west side locations; still winter wx for east side & Idaho.

Valentine’s Day - a Friday this year - should be fairly dry as we'll be between Pacific storms.  Rain does return on Sat for a wet weekend, Feb 15,16.  Snow in the mountains.

Showers will be in play as the week of Feb 17 gets underway.  

Best chance for widespread snowfall around the PNW is about to arrive.  ☕️ Ready, set, snow. 

Following one of the driest Januarys on record, precipitation has finally returned to the great PNW.  Rain today, turning more showery later on Sat and colder, too.  Coldest air of the weekend moves in behind the current front by Sunday, so expect a snow/rain shower mix at the surface Saturday night into Sunday.  As many forecasters have stated, the heavier the showers, the greater the chance for snow accumulation at your location.  Foothills, Cascades and coast range could all get inches of snow by Monday.  But wait, there’s more - - -

Next week will present the coldest air mass of the season around the region, with the classic ‘outflow’ from Fraser Gap starting things off first, with strong cold winds driving cold air into the Puget Sound region; outflow from the Columbia Gorge will likely be delayed until Wednesday.  “Go for Snow” requires moisture, which in our case in early February, looks possible from southern OR into BC.  Not a lot of moisture, but enough, on & off, Mon through most of next week, to present SNOW just about everywhere.  Some model runs indicate 2-3” of snow on valley floors (with potential for more above 500 ft) — that stated, overnight showers are most likely to accumulate, making for slow commutes in the mornings.  School delays or outright cancellations are probable.  Road surfaces should be thawed during daylight hours, hopefully.

There should be a break in the threat for snow late Wed through early Thu, then, as a system moves moisture into the PNW from the SW, moderate snowfall is probable on Fri Feb 7, esp for the Willamette basin - southern district first, then moving north.   Stay tuned, as we see the chance per latest model runs, for over 3” should the Low center remain south of Eugene.  The air mass will be cold enough to hold most of the surface snow around for a few days, but NOT Arctic cold.  We do see a chance for freezing rain - for a short-spell - for Lane county south overnight Thu into Fri.  Mostly snow or snow/rain mix elsewhere.  Portland area north to BC may MISS OUT on the late-week event.

The weekend of Feb 8,9.  Should start out dry, turning damp late weekend, with a near repeat of the Thu-Fri storm noted above.  Warmer air mass by that time, so limited areas of snow or freezing rain.  Still, we see the chance for snow or snow/rain mix, or freezing rain for Salem north.  This system is likely to completely miss all of WA and BC.  The air mass over the PNW will remain rather cold, therefore roads will continue to be at risk for icy conditions, at times, during overnight hours.  The outflow of cold air from the Gaps should ease;  foggy bottoms possible.  

Monday - Fri, Feb 10-14.  Winter is not over.  Cold air mass will continue to linger about the PNW, so any threat for moisture could bring back the risk for frozen precip, at all elevations.  Such may be the case by late Thu through early Sat, Feb 13-15.  Snow or freezing rain possible!!  This is a long way out, so stay tuned.

For a few weeks now, the long-range models have suggested a cold, snowy type pattern for the PNW in Feburary.  We are seeing the chance for this to verify.  Plan ahead for any travel by road over the next couple of weeks.  Rhymes aside, all the “Go Snow” talk could just be that, talk and no action.  Still, our premise here is that preparation ahead of time is far less inconvenient than getting caught by surprise.  Go Snow.

Monday January 27

Winter may drop in soon, as in SNOW.  Find the mittens & hot chocolate.  Lots of details that could have impact.  Ready?

Indeed, model solutions continue to hint at a winter event during the first full week of February, which should begin to set up this coming weekend.  But first, another 4 days of dry weather.  Strong east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will remain in play until Tue night.  Looks like Thu night will begin the turning point from dry to wet & notably colder.  The persistent blocking ridge of High pressure will erode away from the west with a front moving onshore across the entire PNW Thu night.  Fri looks wet with a mild southerly wind temporarily warming valley floors.  

Late Thu night Feb 6, another system is modeled to drop south along the BC coast, ushering in moisture that could fall as SNOW, freezing rain, or rain, depending on west side location AND just how strong the southerly flow component for surface winds is as the Low drops south.  The air mass should be cold enough for frozen precip, but where and for how long is uncertain this far out from the event (if it even develops).   This snow, freezing rain, rain action should continue into Sat Feb 8.  On Sunday Feb 9, a stronger storm is charting to move up from the southwest, ushering in a normal February moderate rainfall event.  The transitions could be messy, esp where eastern outflow continues.  Think Columbia Gorge & Fraser River.

Way too early to peg actual snowfall estimates, but some solutions present up to a couple inches of snow during the event in the valleys; more in the coast range.  We’ll see.

Feb 10-Valentine’s Day looks quite WET & blustery, as storms are charting to line up and push onshore.  Warmer.

(Yes, that is our Winter Cup trademark)

Friday January 24

Long tag line, but a notable change in the weather MAY be on the horizon.  Better Mug up, Patron; interesting trend on the charts to discuss.  All set?

Our lengthy DRY pattern will continue for another 6+ days.  There is COLDER air setting up to arrive this weekend.  Not a strong outflow event, but definitely a northeasterly component to the air flow, which typically brings on colder temps around the PNW.  That is what to expect this weekend.  In fact, by Sunday morning (& Mon), temps could drop into the upper teens in the Willamette Valley - or wherever there is shelter from the east wind.  It’s a 1036 mb 'Yukon Dome' that will shift southeast, drawing down colder continental air into the region.  East side likely to dip to the lowest temps, thus far, this winter.  NO MOISTURE.  Yet.

Next week, the cold air mass will work southward into CA, setting up the potential for showers over the FIRE AREAS of southern CA — a blessing for that region, for sure. In the PNW, temps will remain chilly & dry each day, although the afternoons could pop up into the 40s west side.  Foggy bottoms, at times, as the winds diminish by Tue, which may hold temps in the upper 30s for foggy locations.  

What’s this about The White?  Lots of social media & local weather geeks discussing the possibility for a snowy pattern sometime in Feburary.  Well, as you may guess, we are right in there with that “ponder point” for now.  This coming Thu, clouds will increase from the west, with RAIN possible by Fri morning, Jan 31.  We will stick with forecasting rain, for now, because the air mass ABOVE the surface will be warmer, the cloud cover Thu night will hold up temps, and there should be limited east wind to drop west side temps.  East of the Cascades, pockets of freezing rain - or snow - cannot be ruled out.  The system will NOT be a strong one, so we’re fairly confident in the forecast above for Friday.

Sat & Sun Feb 1,2 are presenting an outside chance for The White in western WA & OR, as colder, upper-level air will move in behind the rain band that passes by the last day of January.  Not much moisture left, so we cannot forecast a big snow event, just the chance for a skiff of snow or snow/rain mix.  Saturday night is the best chance for a dusting of snow.  We’ll see.

Week of Feb 3-7.  Snow?  Since our last report on Jan 20, wx models have suggested that a Low pressure system - modeled to move onshore Mon Feb 3 - would do so over northern CA, which would draw colder air behind it over WA, OR & BC, and thus open the door for The White.  Secondary systems were then charted to drop down the BC coast and usher in a notable winter snow event for the entire PNW Feb 3-6.  Total snowfall was running 2-6 inches.  Well, that has been dropped as of this morning, with the latest model solutions suggesting the LOW will move onshore farther north - over western WA, ushering in warmer air and cancelling the Snow Dreams of many.  On/off rain that week, with lowering snow levels are in the latest model solutions.  The Puget Sound could get snow/rain mix by Thu or Fri Feb 6,7.  

Ponder Point:  Knowing how rare it is for moderate snowfall west side, we will lean towards the later prognostication above for rain.  That said, we often see models revert to earlier solutions, as the calendar dates near.  Let’s see what develops - the CHANCE for a snowy week is not off the table completely.  

That said, the wet pattern of rain (or snow??) should continue into the weekend of Feb 8,9.  Drier as the second full week of Feb begins.

Bottom line:  A week from today, Fri Jan 31, should present the first rain since very early Jan.  This weekend will turn colder.  Then, we wait to see if The White is at the end of the dry January Tunnel.  Isn’t this fun??

A Special Day for our Nation, both in Presidential Transition and in memory of a great man.  What about the weather?  Well, a very rare chance for SNOW tomorrow across the shoreline of the Gulf States, to include New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola.  BUT, you are here for the PNW weather, so let’s get to it, shall we?  

East winds over the weekend have really chilled down west side locations (21F now in Albany); colder air mass is possible late this week, so be ready.  In the meantime, expect the fog-clearing east wind to diminish, with foggy bottoms possible again this week.  By Thu night, a cold air mass is modeled to drop in from the north, which should clear the sky and usher in another round of sub-freezing overnight temps.  Some locations are likely to be 4-8 degrees colder than the current pattern, esp east side, by Fri/Sat nights.  STRONG Fraser Gap wind may develop late Fri into the weekend; much less so for the Columbia Gorger outflow.  Per the above cold air mass, we do not see much precipitation with this cold air, so other than a few clouds - maybe even a flurry on either side of the Cascades, nothing of note this weekend, Jan 25,26.  Oh yeah, DRY all week.

The week of Jan 27 - 31 looks DRY again everyday.  Foggy bottoms may return, as the colder air slowly warms around the region, with limited breezes.  (The northern half of Vancouver Is. could get a shower late Fri night to end January; a few clouds over the Puget Sound, as well.)

February.  Onshore flow will ‘warm’ the area during the first weekend of Feb.  STILL DRY.   A ‘blocking’ ridge of High pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to hold off Pacific storm as the month of February gets underway.  Therefore, we forecast DRY conditions continuing through at least Thu Feb 7.    

From the ’Net: “I love board games. My favorite is where people put meat and cheese on a board; maybe some fruit and crackers. I’m so good at that one!”

Political change ahead; no change in the weather — expect dry conditions for the next 18 days!