The WxCafe™

Some Dry Time Ahead

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 07, 2025

Monday April 7

Fair weather periods ahead. Let’s take a forward view, shall we?

Off & on rain or showers will linger through most of Tue, then we should dry down for a couple of days. Another weak front will zoom on by late Thu evening into early Fri to end the week. The coming weekend is looking mixed, with areas north of Chehalis likely to have scattered showers, mostly cloudy; southern areas will be mostly dry, although continued cool.

Warming with plenty of SUNSHINE during the week of Apr 14 - Good Friday. Models suggest a quick shot of showers may push through Wed night, Apr 16, with some showers lingering over the Willamette Valley on Thu. Good Friday trends as dry.

Easter Weekend: charting dry & partly cloudy at times, with cool temps, esp around the Puget Sound.

We see chance for a few showers to start the week after Easter; cool temps continue. The region could warm up some as that week progresses, but it’s too early to peg a forecast.

Getting ready for photos with tourists. Cartagena, Colombia (photo by Rufus)

Statue of Virgin Mary in Cartagena Harbor, Cartagena, Colombia (photo by Rufus)

-Rufus

Read more →

Mixed Patterns

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 04, 2025

Friday April 4

Mix of wx patterns ahead for April. Be ready for the changes. Mug time.

Super Spring conditions for the next couple of days, as the weekend gets underway. Temps in the 60s to low 70s, region wide. However, by Sunday morning, Apr 6 a band of rain will arrive ahead of a cold front from northern CA up into southern BC. Showers possible around the San Francisco area, as well. Temps will cool Sunday, with showers and rain maintaining position in the PNW through the start of next week.

A second front pushes onshore late Mon or early Tue, for added precipitation, primarily from roughly Roseburg north. We see this coming Wed Apr 9 as THE dry day of the week. Rather cool, but decent. Wet conditions return Thu and likely on Fri to end the week.

The weekend of Apr 12,13 has not ’settle in’ yet on the model outlook, although the latest solutions keep most of the weekend dry with a shower here & there, esp over the Puget Sound. Showers could head into CA, north of Pt Conception.

A chilly rain returns on Mon Apr 14, with likely drying out for Tue, Wed and most of Thu, Apr 15-17. Temps that week should also warm a few degrees. Showers pop back into the scene Fri on into the following weekend. Too early to verify that, of course.

Here are a couple more images from our western Caribbean adventure.

The Casibari Rock Formation, Aruba (photo by Rufus)

Our private Cabana, Half Moon Cay, Bahamas (photo by Rufus)

-Rufus

Read more →

Dust off that Mug...

Posted by Rufus La Lone on March 31, 2025

Monday March 31

That’s right, clean out the dust in the ole’ morn’n Mug and fill ‘er up. We’re Back!

Awesome adventure around many Caribbean and Panama locations the past two weeks. As expected, weather played a role, even causing the cancellation of a much anticipated port in eastern Costa Rica. The colors, sounds, and motions were tremendous; never to be forgotten. We’ll share a few, if you don’t mind. For now, let’s get back to what wx models foretell for the 1st half of April 2025. Mug ready?

Showers and cool period through Tue, although less damp after today. A Low will spin its way south of the OR coast, making landfall over northern CA on Tue. Chilly for a day or two, but as mid-week arrives, so too will a return to lovely Spring conditions. Slowly warming, with plenty of sunshine (after possible foggy mornings in places) as this week comes to an end.

A very fine sunny & warm weekend can be expected.

Next chance for clouds and rain arrive overnight Sunday April 6, ushering in a rather damp Mon to start the week of Apr 7-11. It will turn dry and a bit warmer again for Tue & Wed. More rain likely Wed night into early Thu the 10th. While Thu & Fri do not look too bad at this time, it will be fairly cool with a brisk onshore flow. This pattern is modeled to hold through the weekend of Apr 12,13 — therefore, any outdoor activity should be fine, although probably sweater or light jacket conditons for most Patrons.

Likely for showers to return early the week of Apr 14-18.

Sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean, St Patrick’s Day 2025 (photo by Rufus).

-Rufus

Read more →

Pushing Back Spring Fever

Posted by Rufus La Lone on March 10, 2025

Monday March 10

As stated in the last few reports, our mild, Spring-Fever-inducing weather will end for 2 or 3 weeks, pushing back the warmth for awhile. Here’s the latest scenario.

'Wee bit' of a break today & most of Tue before a WET & blustery series of systems hit the PNW. A wintery pattern for sure, with relatively low freezing level and chilly temps. The 2 key storms will be overnight Tue into Wed and again this coming weekend. Showers and maybe even a rain/snow mix at or near valley floors on Thu. Increasing rain & wind on Fri before a POWERFUL storm moves onshore overnight Sat. Lots of ‘options’ on this storm as to how deep the Low will get, and its track. Either way, expect moderate-to-heavy rain and WINDS this weekend. Power outages are probable; you know the prep drill, just in case.

🍀 St Patty’s Day, Monday Mar 17, will remain blustery, with cold showers, on the backside of the weekend storm. Tue the 18th should be dry. Another cold storm moves in on from the north on Wed - probably late morning. WINDY & wet, esp over western WA & BC. The 1st day of Spring 2025 - Thursday Mar 20 - is trending mostly dry until the evening. Fri Mar 21 will likely be dry.

The weekend of Mar 22,23 is trending wet over northern portions of WA on Sat; clearing Sunday. Right now, a cold air mass looks to settle in over the eastern Pacific during the week of Mar 24-28, which typically equates to cold rain, showers and again, fairly low snow levels (not unusual for Mar in the PNW).

Variability in the specifics of our forecast above is a given, however, the overall trend is for a wet & CHILLY period ahead. Spring Fever will be pushed back for awhile.

Repeating our ☕️☕️ Second Cup: Please note, we will be out-of-country from Fri Mar 14 - Sat Mar 29. Depending on internet connections and available time to study/prepare, we may not publish forecast discussions during that period. The effort will be made, of course, to uphold your Mon & Fri morning 'Mug Up' tradition.

“A person going nowhere can be sure of reaching his destination."

-Rufus

Read more →

Cool & Damp

Posted by Rufus La Lone on March 07, 2025

Friday March 7

Good morn’n, Patron. All indications are that the next couple of weeks will be on the cool side, with plenty of precip & mountain snowfall. Sip on.

Dry & mild today, with a moderate-to-heavy rainfall event on tap to hit the northern 2/3 of Vancouver Island beginning tonight. That rain field will slowly spread over the Puget Sound region on Sat, and continue to progress south to drape down over the rest of the western WA later Sat into Sunday. Right now, models hold the main portion of moisture north of Salem. This will be a cold front, so snow levels will drop below the passes in the northern Cascades.

Monday Mar 10 should be dry & cool. Frost possible in the morning, if the sky clears in your location. Late Tue will present an extended period of rain, mountain snow and breezy conditions. Expect rain to move onshore Tue evening as a deep Low pressure system moves NE up along the coast. WINDY. Wet Wed and Thu — notably colder, with snow level fairly low. Showery on Fri, with sun breaks. (The atmospheric ‘wave’ from our storm will reform as it crosses the Rockies, setting up a major winter event for the upper Plains next weekend.)

Speaking of the Mar 15,16 weekend: it could be STORMY around the PNW. Models suggest more rain on Sat, with a real drenching rain field on Sunday from northern CA up into BC. Plenty of snowfall to help the snowpack - Shasta north into BC. Notable WINDS, as well.

By Tue Mar 18, chilly but dry weather should return, as well as warmer, gotta-get-to-Spring temperatures for a couple of days. A wet & windy system - primarily for western WA - could arrive overnight Wed into Thu the First day of Spring. Another couple of dry days, before more showers arrive Sat night Mar 23. Too far out to confirm at this time.

☕️☕️ Second Cup: Please note, we will be out-of-country from Fri Mar 14 - Sat Mar 29. Depending on internet connections and available time to study/prepare, we may not publish forecast discussions during that period. The effort will be made, of course, to uphold your Mon & Fri morning 'Mug Up' tradition.

From the past: “It’s all right to hold a conversation, but you should let go of it now and then."

-Rufus

Read more →