A real variety pack in the wx dept for the rest of February.  Worthy of a good cup of coffee, or whatever your fav morn’n beverage.  Here goes.

A chilly Low pressure trough is moving across NW WA this morning, so expect rain & showers, mainly north of Chehalis, to continue through most of today.  Clearing and frosty overnight, so use caution on the roads Tue morning.  The air mass, esp over OR will be still, so fog could be in play, as well. 

The next rainy system - with wind - is due to arrive late Tue into Valentine’s Day.  Enough cold air from the chilly Low noted above could penetrate far enough south to set up a wintery event for the eastern portions of the Columbia Gorge.  Yep.  Snow and/or freezing rain.  Inches of snow are possible by Fri.  For the rest of the west side just rain (although, snow/rain mix near the Fraser Gap is possible), as the surface southerly wind component of the Valentine’s storm should hold snow up in the mountains.  There will be an east wind out of the Fraser Gap late Wed into Thu.  Clearing will begin overnight Valentine’s Day, so expect a drier pattern to arrive late this week, with a E-to-NE breeze, esp out of the Gaps.

The coming weekend is trending more dry than wet for the PNW, as a front will essentially be stretched out along the west coast, before another round of moderate ‘El Niño’ rains begin to hit California starting Sunday Feb 18.  We do not rule out a stray shower anywhere in the PNW this weekend, but the Puget Sound will be the most likely area to get a shower.  Throughout the region, expect chilly Feb temperatures.  

Week of Feb 19-23.  Generally dry & chilly for the PNW, as California will be the wet place next week.  Locally, fog may be in play in the usual places, less so late week.

Ponder Point.  Will we enter another wintery mode for the PNW?  Well, lots of speculation, per the models, as to what our regional wx will be like as Leap Year February 2024 nears an end.  A colder, snow producing pattern may begin to set up during the final weekend of the month.  Rain and rapidly lowering freezing levels are possible during the Feb 24-25 weekend.  Rain will start first in NW WA & BC, then move into OR and ID later on Sunday.  Much colder air behind the windy storm will drop snow levels - potentially - right to the surface on Mon Feb 26. The same system will also become a major CA storm, as well, as the cold, wet air mass continues its move south along the west coast.  SNOW SHOWERS may continue in the PNW through much of Tue Feb 27.  This is just a projection for now, and it has been charting during multiple model runs.  It is not uncommon to get a decent shot of surface snow in February, so let’s see what Nature presents.

A general mix of what some would call ‘bland’ weather is ahead for the mid-Feb period.  Temps may turn a bit chilly, too.  Get that Mug ready.  Here goes.

Hit & miss showers today and most of Saturday.  Peeks of sunshine possible.  Late Sat, a smaller system will likely bring additional showers to western WA & BC and possibly as far south as Portland/Salem.  Late Sunday afternoon is looking fairly nice, as is Monday Feb 12.  Notice that the period of daylight is getting longer.  Hurray!

While wx models have not been consistent, we do expect a damp, chilly system to move onshore sometime on Tue and last through Valentine’s Day.  High pressure over the Canadian interior is likely to spark brisk winds out of the Fraser Gap for a day or two next week; and, to a lesser degree, from the Columbia Gorge.  Snow showers should remain in the mountains.  It will turn notably colder by Thu, with clearing, morning frost possible on Fri Feb 16.

Chilly weekend on Feb 17,18.  Uncertain model solutions, however, it looks like the bulk of precip will train into California.  The PNW could be chilly with showers, esp over OR, or it may turn out mostly DRY that weekend.  However, the larger scale pattern shifts to a much wetter period during the second half of February.  Heavy rain will continue to plague California; with the PNW turning quite wet in the Feb 22 - 25 period.  Again, models are varying more than a politician, so use caution accepting this forecast.  

Monday February 5 - Nat’l Weatherperson Day

Yep.  Today marks the birthday of John Jeffries, born in 1744, a man recognized as one of the United States’ first weather observers that kept daily weather measurements, starting when he was 30 yrs old, 1774.

Overall weather pattern for the next couple of weeks has shifted a bit, so that’s see what the changes are.  Mainly, we’re not seeing a definite ‘warming period’ for now.  That could return, as models often rebound to earlier progs.  The moisture today is actually associated with the big storm that hit CA this weekend.  Wrap-around clouds & rain moving up from the S.  This will trail off today, leaving the PNW cool & mostly dry through this week.  A shower or two will remain possible, esp Wed and late Thu night into Fri.  California will begin drying out for a week or so before more heavy rainfall after Valentine’s Day.

This coming weekend is trending a weak front moving over western WA & BC, but not too organized.  So, expect a shower or two in the Evergreen State.  Mild for OR.  

A damp system is now charting for Tue Feb 13 and should exit by the morning of Valentine’s Day.  Some cloudiness, but dry, Feb 15,16 to end that week.  Late Fri Feb 16, a large ’trough’ of stormy weather over the Gulf of Alaska will begin moving towards the west coast.  Right now, models drive the bulk of the rain & snow into California during the following week, which leaves the PNW in a zone where the leading ‘rain field’ is stretched out along the coasts of OR & WA, rather than making a direct shot onshore.  Therefore, for today, let’s call for a chance of some rain (west side only) during the weekend of Feb 17,18 with mild temps around the region.  

Week of Feb 19-23 looks WET for all of the west coast.  As noted, CA will again be slammed by the ‘El Niño’ pattern of heavy rain & mountain snow.  Flooding issues are likely to return to the Golden State.  Road crews will be playing catch-up again.

The pattern projected above does not favor a substantial addition to the snowpack across the Cascades, with limited February snow held up above pass levels.  

Let’s repeat that.  Ground Hog Day - 2024.  Quick update which will focus mainly on the added rain/showers before a mild February dry spell coming soon.  

Overall, fairly dry & cool this weekend around the PNW, as the BIG storm on the charts heads to California.  Yes, the Golden State will be hammered with a major winter storm, starting Sunday morning.  Heavy rain, snow in the mountains and WIND.  A large, deep Low center of pressure will move close to the Bay area on Sunday, then slowly move north by early next week.  Localized flooding is likely in areas of CA across the entire state.  As said Low moves north, wrap-around moisture will train into the PNW bringing widely scattered west side showers and east side snow Sunday night & early Monday.  Snow in ID & MT, too.

After the early Monday drips, the next cold, damp system is charting for late Tue into Wed.  Snow showers are likely below the passes.  Generally, a chilly Feb week.  The mid-week system will strengthen some and roll right down the CA coast, for more rain in that area.  El Nino pattern will be brought up by the media.  We do not disagree.

The weekend of Feb 10,11 may see a bit of rain or showers, esp over OR, but other than that, we should FINALLY get that extended, mild dry pattern setting up, as mentioned in our last report.   Some solutions suggest a quick moving systems may skirt NW WA & BC around Tue Feb 13, but most model runs keep the PNW generally dry, with temperature building into Spring-like levels after Valentine’s Day on through Tue Feb 20.  It’s not unusual for west side locations to catch a week of 60s in February.  The frogs will again begin the 'Croaking Choir’ chorus, much like we heard a few days ago.

Second ☕️ Cup:  Driving over to Newport from the valley revealed incredible damage to trees from the ice storm a couple of weeks ago.  Deciduous trees were shattered extensively.  Nature’s open sore, if you will.  

Finishing up your host's 71st birthday celebration in Lincoln City, 

Wrapping up the first month of 2024 (sure zipped by fast).  Nice to start a new day with full Mug ☕️.  Got it?

Record high temps yesterday for many locations around the Great PNW (and most likely today, as well, if the fog clears).  Sadly, flooding continues up along the WA state & Canadian border.  More rain on the way there, while the rest of us have dry & WARM today & part of Tue.  A shift back to damp & cool weather will begin late Tue on through the rest of the week.  Colder air will move in behind the primary front that will bring steady rain & showers back to the entire west coast on Wed & Thu.  This particular system will get stretched out, so it will be California that gets the brunt of the heavy rainfall.  

There will NOT be an outflow out of the Fraser Gap, as models hold the cold High pressure dome primarily over the Alaskan interior.  However, the eastern edge of a cold air mass over the Gulf of Alaska will be drawn down into the PNW beginning Thu.  Snow will begin again where we like it - in the mountains - later on Thu.

Going Dry.  As noted, the main focus of the mid-week storm will move into CA, so we can expect heavy rain over Vancouver Is to cease, and not too much rain or snow for the rest of the PNW as Friday draws to a close.  Chilly again, so enjoy the Spring-like temps the next couple of days.  Rain will be the main story over CA Sunday all the way through the first full week of February.  The PNW will turn mostly DRY & cool for the first weekend of February and through the 9th.  Foggy bottoms likely, so be cautious.  An E-to-NE breeze will kick-up Monday evening.  Showers may return to Vancouver Is., southern BC and eastern WA by the end of next week.   

The Feb 10,11 weekend is trending DRY on the charts.  Warmer temps, as well.  The dry & mild conditions are modeled to hold on through the second full week of February (12-16).  Should this scenario hold, the ‘awakening’ of plants out of winter mode could begin.  That’s fine, if another cold snap doesn’t happen.  Early bud-break for various PNW crops is not necessarily a good thing.  

Bottom line: it may turn dry for the entire first half of the second month of 2024.