Friday October 18

He's Back!  Not The Terminator, just a wx geek sharing long-range forecasts with you.  Ready?  ☕️  Let’s do it.  

Today & this weekend will be a split-decision kind of pattern, with the northern 1/2 of western WA, along with southern BC, getting hammered with multiple inches of rain & plenty of wind gusts.  SW WA & OR, on down into northern CA, will avoid the rain until later on Sunday.  Mild temps.   Late Sunday, the rain band will shift south, providing a quick-shot of rain to western OR & northern CA.  

Regionally, showers will linger a bit on Mon the 21st, leading into a pleasant, dry fall pattern that could last through Fri Oct 25.  Enjoy it while you can.  Temps will be mild, although a light frost could appear across portions of the eastern basins early in the week.  A wet warm front will move into the PNW overnight Thu into Fri, setting up the beginning of an extended rainy pattern.  A Classic Fall rainy period begins. 

WET, blustery and notably cooler weekend to begin the last weekend of October.  Snow in the higher elevations, both north & south Cascades.  Sunday night, the 27th will usher in another very wet system from the NW.  Only the beginning, Patrons.

The week of Halloween is looking constantly WET and blustery.  Inches of precip is on tap, with steady rainfall every day through the week AND through the weekend of Nov 2,3!   Get a few good books.  Indoor time.

The “daily rain” pattern is currently charting to begin around Fri Oct 25 and last at least through the first week of November.  

Total cumulative precipitation, per most recent model compilations, is forecast to be in the 5” to 10” range from today through Nov 3.  Higher end of that range will be in the coast & Cascade ranges.  Localized flooding will be probable, so keep aware & heed Nat’l Wx Service statements.  

Ponder Point: possible low elevation SNOW as a ‘winter-cold’ air mass may settle in over the PNW around Nov 5 - ELECTION DAY.  Stay tuned, Patron.  We are entering a La Nińa pattern. 

Showers over Vancouver Island this afternoon, spreading over NW WA overnight heading into Tue.  Warm today across the PNW.  Limited chance for any precip south of, say, Chehalis, until Wed, when cool air aloft expands the range of showers for a day or two.  Even then, not much precip is expected.  The coming weekend is trending dry & quite pleasant for all.  

Next week is on tap to be fall-like, with periods of cloudiness and rain.  Monday looks wet & a bit blustery; eastern basins included, as will be northern ID.  Key wet periods will be Mon, early Tue, Wed (esp western WA --> lots of rain!).  OR may miss out on notable rainfall after Monday, as the ‘jet stream’ will be pointed at NW WA & southern BC.  

The weekend of Oct 19,20 is charting as dry for most of the PNW, excluding Vancouver Island, southern BC and far NW WA - wet each day.  Rain may spread farther south over much of western WA on Sunday the 20th.  Increasing cloudiness for NW OR, but right now, steady rain is not suggested.

It does look dry across the PNW Mon, Tue, and maybe Wed, Oct 21-23.  Lots of time to verify this. Good pattern to harvest hazelnuts.

Again, please pardon our absence for a week.  We are taking a ‘recation’ -- retirement vacation.

Our tag line today relates to how Nature responded to our last forecast of "dry through at least Oct 20” - now rain & showers are likely, at times.  It’s as though Nature says, “Watch this!”  Or, it could be that lots of Patrons washed their cars, which always brings on rain!?  It’s the first Friday of October 2024, so let’s get to why you are here with a morn’n beverage in hand. 

Rain today, with showers lingering into the evening.  Cooler.  The weekend does look dry & mild.  As for next week, we see another chance for a few showers, esp over the Vancouver Island & the Puget Sound later on Mon the 7th on into nightfall.  A repeat of this is likely for Tue night into early Wed, which should include NW OR.  After that, it looks dry to wrap up the week of Oct 7-11,  EXCEPT for a chance for showers over mainly western OR overnight Thu Oct 10.  

There may be a bit of FOG Sat morning, the 13th, in the lowlands, but the weekend is charting as dry & mild.  A NE breeze should arrive Sunday on into Mon the 14th, keeping fog away.  Dry through that week until Fri Oct 18, when another Pacific storm is on the charts for Fri night. 

So, obviously, Oct will not be nearly as dry as we had forecast earlier this week.  Still, the models do not present super-wet storms nor multiple wet days in a row.  Will that hold?  Check back here on Monday.  

From 14 years ago: “It’s getting so that take-home pay can hardly survive the trip."

“…Off the models, everyone.”  Indeed, the current long-range outlook is dry.  Let’s take a look.

Other than a possible shower or two in the far NW corner of the PNW (Vancouver Is., northern WA Cascades) early this week and again this coming weekend, we do not see ANY notable precipitation through at least Oct 20.  Sure, models do trend back-n-forth, but for now, the charts keep stable High pressure patterns blocking any normal fall Pacific storms from our region.  

Easy forecast:  Mild temps, with very little risk of frost, over the next 2-3 weeks.  Stop by again on Friday for an update.  Maybe rain will return to our forecasts.

As the tag line suggests, our wx for the next couple of weeks is trending to be mild, with a couple shots of precipitation just to remind us it is fall, after all. Got your fav morn’n beverage refilled?

This weekend looks fine, although a few clouds will linger over the Puget Sound area.  Sunday will be quite breezy in OR, because a High pressure ridge will set offshore, coupled with a Low over the continental divide.  Leaves will be "a blow’n”.

We see generally dry conditions next week, with a few extra clouds over the Puget Sound on Tue & Thu, thus the possibility for a shower or two.  Friday looks pleasant, but by afternoon or nightfall, the leading edge of an October storm will be making its way onshore.

The weekend of Oct 5,6 will likely start out WET on Sat, with clearing from the north by Sunday morning.  Dry late day Sunday — with a run of 5 or 6 days of dry, mild weather through Oct 11.

Another damp weekend may develop Oct 12,13, especially over western WA and southern BC.  We suspect this outlook will change.  

On the Mild Side.  We do not see a frost threat through at least Oct 15.  Low temps in the upper 30s are possible east side after next weekend’s cold front passes.  Although the lack of an early frost does ’tap down’ the brilliance of fall colors, lots of foliage is beginning to color-up.  Enjoy.

Ponder Point:  During our 44 years of attempting to forecast PNW weather, the following has proven to be a factor.   Long-range weather models tend to present a higher level of variance in the summer-fall transition (as well as winter-spring).  With this year’s La Niña setting up, it may take the 'computer brains' a bit longer to adjust.  We’ll understand.