(Limited connectivity last week while your host was on The Metolius River; hence we missed last Friday’s update opportunity.)  Lots of dry weather ahead, along with the threat for rain/mountain showers late in the holiday weekend ahead.  Mug ready?

 

West side, the current heat event will end Tue, with Patrons east of the Cascades getting another day or two of heat.  It will be seasonally pleasant for the balance of the week, as the holiday weekend approaches.  

 

The 4th of July weekend should start out pleasant, dry.  We are monitoring the future position of a weak Low pressure trough that may set up west of the southern OR coast.  If this develops, expect increased humidity, mountain showers & thunderstorms to form over the OR cascades on Sunday, July 3 - FIRE WATCH, then work their way north into WA on the 4th.  In fact, some model solutions indicate a very WET slap of rain/storms for the Abbotsford/Lynden area by Tue the 5th, or sooner.  That Low may remain far enough off the coast to have limited impact on the region, so we’ll update this Friday, July 1st.

 

After the holiday, expect temps to remain mild for July, with increasing chance for clouds and drizzle/light showers over the north Puget Sound area by Thu/Fri July 7,8; OR & ID will remain dry.   Concurrently, HEAT will rocket up over southern CA, enough to make the news with possible brown-outs, given their energy issues.  That same heat dome will expand into the Rocky Mtns and eventually portions of the Plains as the second weekend of July gets underway.  Denver could hit record high temps.  The monsoons may get an early start over the desert SW, as well.

 

The PNW's next short ‘warm-up’ may develop around July 10-12.  Early yet, but between now and then, temperatures should remain seasonal, or a bit below average for NW WA & southern BC.  Overall, an onshore breeze will be the main source of natural air conditioning for the next couple of weeks.

 

 

 

Astronomical summer begins tomorrow, Tue June 21.  Meteorological summer began on June 1.  Around the PNW in 2022 we seem to have skipped Spring, because it has been so cool and WET.  That’s all in the history books now.  As the longest days of the year arrive this week, we dare to forecast ZERO days of rain between now and at least July 6.  Mug up & sip on.

 

Other than a day or two of clouds (plus drizzle) in the far north corner of WA and southern BC, the entire PNW should remain DRY well into July, at least.  The only variation in weather conditions will hinge on the strength of the onshore flow that be present, at times.  For this week, that ‘marine air conditioning’ will be in play until Fri.  Then, the coming weekend will be summer warm.  As advertised by many forecasters, temperatures will climb well into the 80s and even 90+ in the usual hot spots.  

 

Next week looks to cool down a tad by Tue Jun 28 (onshore 'air conditioning’ returns).  Eastern basins will be breezy & a bit cooler, as well.  July begins on a Friday, with the onshore breeze weakening as the big 4th of July holiday weekend begins.  As a result, temperatures will ramp up into the 80s & 90s again.  Great camping weather.  

 

The extended dry pattern should remain in play after the US holiday.  There is an indication of a cool, Low pressure trough skirting down the BC coast by July 6 or 7, but typically in the summer, these systems weaken as they track south.  For now, enjoy the summer pa

 

Wow, has this month been a test of patience in waiting for dry conditions or what??  What looked to be a dry, warm Fri has started out dripping, drenching wet for western OR.  Trusting the weather models is as silly as trusting a politician these days.  Enough whining — read on, if you dare, for what the outlook is this time.  Got your Mug?

 

Heavy band of rain moving from south-to-north (Portland just about to get hammered!) as we write this update.  The culprit is a Low pressure trough off the northern CA / southern OR coast.  Moisture rotating north from that system is bringing on the rain.  A continued mix of sunshine and showers possible well into the weekend.  Temps should remain cool-to-mild.  Patience required for another couple of days, for sure.

 

Next week will start out mild and turn warmer by mid-week.  Exception?  Yes, Patrons in NW WA and Vancouver Island region will remain under a weak trough Mon & Tue, so expect morning marine clouds, maybe some drizzle and rather cool temps for June.  By Wed, the entire PNW should finally get sunshine and pleasant afternoon temps in the 70s.  Portions of western OR could tease out 80-82 later next week.  It should be mostly DRY all week. 

 

The last weekend in June is charting as dry & mild.  Temps may get tapped down a few degrees because of an onshore flow but remain pleasant.

 

The final days of June are trending dry & mild, with temps moving up into the 70s again, if the onshore breeze lightens up a bit..  We do see the possibility for temperatures approaching the upper 90s east side, even a triple-digit shot over the Columbia Basin on June 30th.  

 

Back to the whining — yep, crazy time to be a long-range forecaster, but hey, the coffee is good.  Seriously, the overall pattern continues to show a transition into summer mode, it just keeps getting delayed like airline travel.  Patience Patron.

 

 

 

 

We are now in ’the turn’ toward much better late Spring, early Summer weather.  A giant “Yes!!” can be heard around the PNW.  

 

For today (Monday) and Tue, expect showers to pop-up at times, but infrequently.  The typical ‘convergence zone’ showers are likely in the Puget Sound region.  Wed looks to be the warmest day of the week, with temps jumping into the high 60s or 70s, depending on location.  Dry.  Late week, there will be another trough and associated surface Low spinning its way south off the PNW coast, but as mentioned earlier, it is not charting to move onshore, therefore, expect a few clouds at times Thu over far north WA and Vancouver Island with dry conditions elsewhere.  Mild temps.  

 

Friday should also remain dry, with an up-tick in an onshore flow - breezy.  Concurrently, it will be windy in the far eastern portions of WA & OR; Idaho too.  The coming weekend is trending to be dry, although a bit muggy, as a SW flow is charted.  Mountain showers possible along the eastern slopes.  We are not likely to get that ‘light show’ mentioned in the last update because the surface Low moving out of NV will track too far to the east.  

 

Week of Jun 20 - 24 is looking DRY, with some of the warmest temps of the year possible over the eastern basins and southern OR.  Onshore breeze may tap western valley and Puget Sound temps down a bit.  Still pleasant for strawberry picking and outdoor activity.  Models hint a yet another offshore Low pressure trough forming the last weekend of June.  Right now, though, the main impact could be onshore breeze with seasonal temps.  No rain.  We’ll take it.

 

Topical Tropical: we are monitoring what would become Hurricane BONNIE in the Gulf of Mexico during the last weekend of June (yes, we have Patrons in FL & NOLA).  Long-range scenarios periodically suggest a disturbance originating south of Cuba deepening and tracking into the Gulf late June.  ’Tis the season.

 

 

 

Looks like the PNW will soon get a favorable ‘turn’ toward Summer weather pattern.  Let’s hope this verifies.

 

A WET weekend is still on tap, as the ‘jet stream’ directs moisture-saturated air over the PNW.  Washington got the drenching yesterday; Oregon is on tap for much of the moderate-to-heavy rain this weekend.  Because of the very warm air mass aloft, heavy rain over the mountains not only melts some of the snowpack, but also raises stream & river levels notably.  Our large ‘main stem’ rivers will be impacted, esp the Columbia.  Expect rain turning to showers by later on Sunday, with showers diminishing from south-to-north as next week begins.

 

The Turn.  Models hint at a Low pressure system remaining off the OR coast by the middle of next week, so we’ll go with a very slight chance for a shower on Thu, but overall after Tue we see a stretch of drying out and WARMING for western portions of the PNW.  The weekend of Jun 11,12 is trending rather MUGGY, with a Low moving N out of Nevada across eastern WA that will usher in rather intense showers/thunderstorms over the eastern portions of OR, WA and possibly ID.  Some of that moisture may push out of the Cascades into southern OR, as far north as Salem overnight Sat.  Early yet, but we may be in for quite a ‘light show’ the night of Jun 11. 

 

Other than that threat for storms cells drifting west next weekend, western portions of the PNW should remain DRY and warm.  In fact, if models verify, temperatures later in the week of Jun 13-17 are likely to pop into the 90s (esp southern OR and east side) - for the first time in 2022.  Ponder point: will that be the first heat wave of 2022?  For now, it looks like onshore flow will cool the west side down by Sunday, Jun 19.  California will toasty hot.