Refill your Mug and read on for the latest weather outlook.  Hint: not much of a change from our last sip.

 

Overall, a dry pattern will prevail under a ridge of High pressure along the west coast.  There will be a few exceptions, so we’ll address those.

This weekend will be dry, except for showers will be over Vancouver Is & far NW WA Sunday, Mon and early Tue.  Morning fog in many locations west of the Cascades.  Hopefully, on Wed Jan 19 an offshore breeze will help push fog away, and provide a couple of sunny mornings to end the week.

 

The weekend of Jan 22,23 may present a weak trough just off the OR coast, so clouds could increase, but no precipitation is expected, other than coastal drizzle.

 

Dry conditions are charting for Mon - Wed Jan 24-26.  Patrons in the Puget Sound region could get some showers on Thu the 27th, as a weak surface disturbance swings by.  That front will also usher in some of the coolest temps since our last winter blast (but NOT super cold, just the lowest in a few weeks).  You probably guessed it - the east winds will pick up, too, as High pressure will drop into the eastern basins.  Portions of California may experience strong easterly winds the weekend of Jan 28,29.

 

February?  Well, early in the month we may begin to enter another cold, wintery pattern, or a least a return to wet Pacific storms, depending on the center position of the Pacific High pressure ridge.  

 

 

Keeping a dry pattern in the forecast.  Refill time.

 

Overall, weather over the next 2 weeks is trending on the dry side.  Some mornings will present fog, as the air, at times, will be still and stagnant.  

 

For this week, moderate-to-heavy rain will fall over the Olympic Range & North Cascades, Canada’s Coastal mountains, and Vancouver Is.  The 'train of rain' will run through Wed in those locations.  Freezing levels will rise, so snowmelt will add to high outflows of rivers & creeks.  Oregon and the lowlands of ID will remain dry.  A short squirt of showers possible in western OR on Thu.  The coming weekend is looking dry and mild for all of the PNW, excluding showers over the northern half of Vancouver Is.

 

The 3rd week of 2022 is trending mostly DRY except for possible showers over northern Vancouver Is and maybe north of Mt Vernon on Tue Jan 18.  Colder air will be moving south out of the Yukon/Alberta region down into the heartland of the US.  Idaho and to the east may pick up some snow.  Note: the west coast should miss out on the winter action, but we have seen a few outlier model solutions building the Pacific High northwestward into Alaska, opening the door for another modified-Arctic blast in the PNW.  We cannot forecast this outlook right now, but mention it because of what happened in December - back then, the 'outlier solutions' ended up verifying quite well.

 

For now, expect dry & relatively mild weather for the week of Jan 17-21.  In fact, we may experience temperatures in western OR teasing the upper 50s and lower 60s. on the 20 & 21st.  However, if that colder air mass descends a few hundred miles farther west, PNW temperatures will chill down later that week as an easterly wind picks-up.  

 

We will project a chilly, east/northeast wind weekend on the 22 & 23 of January.  Snow levels will be low, if we have some moisture around.

 

 

 

Referring broadly to the entire PNW, a drier period is ahead, as well as more seasonal January temperatures.  Let’s take a peek.

 

The windy storm front has now passed, so expect calmer conditions as the day progresses, diminishing rainfall, too.  Snow levels will drop in the mountains to around a 1,000 ft in the northern WA area, above 2,500 ft in OR.  The weekend should be mostly dry for all the PNW, as an offshore wind picks-up, esp in the Columbia River Gorge.

 

Next chance for precip looks to be early next week for NW WA & BC, less so for western OR, as a pattern of moisture trains right over the NW WA & BC area yet again.  Early yet, but this ‘train’ could keep rain in the picture for 2 or 3 days next week for the northern Puget Sound region.  (The dreaded ‘atmospheric river’ - enough already!)  

 

Stray showers possible in NW OR, but for now, it should trend mostly dry next week.  There is a chance for a weak system to bring light rain onshore Wed or Fri next week for OR, but even that is trending as a ‘maybe’.  

 

The weekend of Jan 15,16 looks to be mostly dry, except for the possibility of more rain over Vancouver Island late in the period.  A cold Yukon & Alberta High pressure Dome will form and begin moving south along the eastern side of the Rockies, setting up the coldest winter shot yet for the upper Plains & Great Lakes region.  WINDY.

 

The PNW is charting ‘mixed' for the Jan 17-21 period.  With the cold Canadian air mass moving into heartland, the west coast could remain rather dry, or as a few model runs suggest, turn wet again, esp over western WA.  We’ll monitor, of course.

 

Overall:  the trend is for drier conditions in comparison to last week, with the exception of a possible stretch of moderate rainfall concentrated over the NW corner of WA & southern BC early next week (let’s hope that fails to verify).

 

 

We usher in the New Year with plenty of rain & feet of mountain snow.  Hot java ready.  Here’s goes —

 

Heavy rain & showers will prevail on/off today.  The current front is draped across the PNW, with cold air support behind it.  There will be a couple additional fronts swinging by as the week progresses, and, as mentioned in our last discussion, the freezer-door may be open again as Fraser Gap outflow could kick back up once or twice this week for local imapct.  SNOW or freezing rain is possible for Patrons in the far NW corner of WA and southern BC, as well as for Patrons in the eastern portions of the Columbia River Gorge.   Overall though, most of The White this week will remain in the mountains, adding to an already excellent snowpack for the summer of 2022.  There are some flooding issues, given the heavy rain and raising freezing level, which combined, rapidly melted low-elevation snow.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service statements.

 

By this coming weekend, the general wx pattern will shift into a drier mode.  High pressure will center east of the Cascades and Low pressure systems will remain well offshore for several days, yielding dry days from Saturday Jan 8 through Wed Jan 19.  With High pressure to the east, expect E-NE breezes to dominate those 7-10 days.  Note: some solutions hint at more OR rain by the 11th; there could also be a system clipping the northern 1/2 of western WA sometime Fri the 14th.  Both scenarios are iffy right now.    The airmass east of the Cascades is not modeled to be ‘Arctic cold’, just seasonally colder than the west side.  Mornings frosts are possible in wind-sheltered areas - typical for January.  Fog at times and afternoon sunshine should be the main feature for about a week. Enjoy.

 

Ponder Point:  After the 19th?  Well, early yet, but we are watching another potential Yukon High Dome developing.  It most likely will drop south, east of the Rockies, to bring a winter slap to the U.S. heartland.  However, the Pacific High may shift again to the NW, as it did in December, opening the door for the Yukon High to clip the PNW for another winter event.  

 

 

 

Gone.  The year and, for folks around western OR, so is most of the snow.  The White sure was delightful.  Will we get more?  Overall pattern shifting to a normal one for January, but there are a few winter-weather threats ahead.  Mug up.

 

Today’s moisture is almost done.  It will refreeze tonight, so be sure you keep that in mind if returning home after New Year’s Eve festivities -  icy roads or sidewalks.  Patrons up in NW WA & BC, (and those above 1,000 ft) have plenty of winter issues still at hand.  While the Fraser Wind will ebb & flow, cold outflows are not completely behind us yet (below).  It should be mostly dry and chilly on the 1st day of Twenty-Twenty-Two.

 

The next very wet system is moving down the panhandle of Alaska & coast of BC for arrival in the PNW before sunrise Sunday, Jan 2 (from north to south).  The “New Year" storm will have impact. It will bring moderate-to-heavy rain to most locations, but we will stick our proverbial Mug out and forecast that surface - or 550 ft and above - SNOW and/or Freezing rain will be possible in locations from Portland north into southern BC.  Wet, “heavy” big-flake snow, if you get some.  Patrons in the Columbia River Gorge area are likely to get a lot of snow, freezing rain before transition to rain (if any at all).  Sunday night will be stormy.  ->> The morning commute on Monday could be crazy.  HEED Nat’l Wx Service alerts.  After that storm front passes, there may be enough cold air 'draw in behind’ to set off more snow or snow/rain mix at the surface, or close to it, esp for Patrons north of Salem.  This is possible into Tue Jan 4.

 

A ‘warm’ front moves in overnight Tue, with rain for western OR, a dusting of snow or snow/rain mix in Bellingham/Abbotsford area before sunrise Wed.  The scene will be set.  A stronger front arrives overnight Wed, ushering in moderate rain, Columbia River Gorge frozen precip issues, and - if the Fraser Outflow kicks in just a little - snow and/or freezing rain for Bellingham north, at least for a few hours.  Please note: the ‘just in’ model run from GFS indicates that the Wed night arrival, on into Thu morning, could start as SNOW and/of Freezing rain from Portland (and east) up to Canada.  We like to see several runs showing similar outlooks, but for now, there could be enough cold air from the east drawn into western locations for that frozen precip issue to verify.

 

It will likely be on/off rain for all of the western areas of the PNW from late Thu into early Saturday, Jan 6-8.   The rest of that weekend should be DRY & chilly, with temps dipping below freezing just about everywhere Sunday morning the 9th.

 

An offshore, NE-to-E, wind will dominate the weather for the week of Jan 10-14.  Temps will top above freezing during the day; below freezing at night in wind sheltered areas.  Yes, it looks DRY until late Fri the 14th.  Good time to take down outdoor decorations, as temps should gradually warm as that week progresses.  Daylight hours are slowly getting longer.  

 

The weekend of Jan 15,16 is trending dry, with offshore breezes.  Some model scenarios bring a one day rain to western WA on Sat.  Not a bad January weekend in the great PNW.