End of month 1 of 2022.  The weather ahead will be mostly dry, with colder conditions likely later in Feb.  Let’s take a Mug shot.

 

Colder air moving in now, so expect showers over the next day or two, with some bringing rain/snow mixed very near sea level, in places.  Most snowfall will remain above 1,000 ft.  

 

Might be easier to simply list the days that could be damp looking ahead (plus or minus 12 hrs)  

• Tomorrow Feb 1
• Fri Feb 4 from NW OR north
• Maybe a shower or two NW WA on Sunday Feb 6 over Vancouver Is.
• Tue Feb 15 - could be low snow event, esp NW WA. Some solutions bring cold air/moisture in a bit earlier, on Mon, Valentine’s Day.

 

Other than that, expect dry conditions and a few frosty mornings, FOG - esp the week of Feb 7-11.  Overall, the PNW could be turning colder around Valentine’s Day - with another clip of cold Canadian air.  We’ll see.

 

 

 

Overall, weather for the next couple of weeks will be ’steady’.  Read on for clarification.

 

The NE winds have helped clear the air of fog for many locations the past 48 hrs - yielding pleasant late January afternoons in the PNW.  By Saturday night the wind will let up as a weak cold front moves in from the NW.   Vancouver Is. & western WA will be first to get some precip (snow in the mountains, rain at sea level), followed by OR from Eugene north by Monday morning.  The air behind the system will be colder, so snow showers could drop to 1,000 ft.  There will not be much moisture carried in, so total amounts will be nominal, esp for NW OR.  Overnight lows should again drop below freezing Tue & Wed morning, if the east wind subsides in your location.  Windy for southern OR, northern CA.   

 

A strong Fraser Gap outlow has been erased by the models, although winds may pick-up a bit by Tue evening.  Why?  The high pressure ‘Yukon Dome’ is, indeed, following its normal path east of the Rockies, hence the lack of cold ‘outflow’ conditions in this forecast.

 

As next week nears an end, we could get a return to stillness & foggy bottoms, esp western OR.  Drab.  The weekend of Feb 5,6 is now trending DRY and foggy at times; cold in the far eastern portions of the PNW.  A light touch of precip may arrive for southern BC and the far NW corner of WA by Tue Feb 8, with the next decent shot of rainfall due in around Thu Feb 10.  This system will focus primarily on western WA; showers for NW OR.  Some precip could linger on a daily basis over the Puget Sound through the end of that week.  

 

Dry with an onshore breeze the weekend of Feb 12,13.  Trending dry & drab again for the week of Feb 14.  Yes, all of this is quite a change from previous expectations.  So it goes.  Weather will be steady and rather bland.  California is charting dry but breezy at times, throughout the entire forecast period.  Bee keepers will be prepping for the 2022 almond pollination period coming up soon.

 

 

 

Foggy Bottoms will be the rule for much of the next 6 days.  Keep your hands warm on that Mug.

 

A stagnant air pattern - with colder air trapped at the surface, capped by a relatively warmer air layer above - will be in play most of this week.  Areas of afternoon clearing will be spotty - in the usual places.  By Thu Jan 27 a high pressure ridge centered over ID may initiate enough easterly offshore flow to clear out the persistent fog, and help ‘clean the stagnant air’ for a day or two, and yield to a bit more sunshine.  By Sat, the fog may return until a weak system ushers in the first round of change - a return to a more active weather pattern typical for February. 

 

It will turn colder, but beforehand, expect that weak system to arrive - from north to south - sometime on Sunday Jan 30.  Showers possible over western OR & WA, as a cold-core Low pressure trough positions over OR by Monday night.  A cold rain or rain/snow mixed showers will fall, snow showers likely below the passes & maybe the coast range under this 1st cold air trough.  That Low will continue south into CA, setting up a stormy, wet pattern for much of CA, including snow down to rather low elevations for the Golden State.   

 

For the PNW, expect temps to be colder with a push of modified Arctic air out of the Fraser Gap by Wed Groundhog Day.  WINDS will be strong, but not damaging, as the barometric pressure differences are charting to be less severe than our last report.  Still, it will be the coldest pattern since December, so any moisture that arrives over the north Puget Sound could fall as snow, or rain/snow mix.  For this first clip of coldness, the bulk of the Arctic air will travel east of the Rockies.  Cold nights, with icy fog possible for Tue and Wed Feb 2,3.

 

Second round is due to arrive beginning on Fri Feb 4. Admittedly, this round is ‘way out there’ on the charts, so accuracy can be challenged, however, we have been monitoring this pattern on the charts for several days now, which raises the certainty a bit higher.  Anyway, Fri night Feb 4 charts with a modified Arctic air mass dropping into the eastern basins of OR, WA and a notable renewal of outflow from the Fraser Gap in NW WA & BC.  There should be enough moisture around to introduce some snow flurries or rain/snow mixed showers overnight into Sat Feb 5 west side.  After the cold air arrives, it will turn dry and cold, with a chilly wind from the E-to-NE.  Temps will be below freezing at night (possible mid-20s west side).  This dry pattern may hold from Sunday Feb 6 through Wed Feb 9.  There are a couple model solutions bringing more rain, wind and LOTS of mountain snow into the PNW by Tue Feb 8.  We’ll see which scenario is likely in future reports.

 

Bottom line: the PNW will on the edge of a cold outbreak as we head into February.  The coldest portion may remain far to the east, but we see enough model solutions indicating that cold may clip the PNW to warrant mention here.  In the meantime, foggy bottoms will dominate.

 

 

 

Warmth has been delayed; colder wx remains a threat for early Feb.  Let’s take a Mug shot at the outlook.

 

While it will remain dry this weekend, the ‘warm portion’ of the high pressure that we had hoped would build over the PNW has been delayed a few days.  So, expect fog or low clouds to hang around a bit longer, thus tapping down afternoon temperatures.  Offshore air flow could kick-in on Sunday, and if so, the low cloud deck will clear away early.  Patrons in southern OR are going to have those 50+ degree days start first, then, that warmth will slowly work north as next week progresses.  

 

Again, across the entire PNW, it will remain DRY through the weekend and all of next week.  A few model runs are holding off any precipitation until next weekend; others keep us dry until the very last night of January (Sunday).  COLDER weather will be returning in February.

 

Winter Returns.  As the new month -February - begins, a cold pattern is charting to bring back Fraser Gap outflow WIND, low elevation snow (may get to sea level, esp north Puget Sound), heavy rain/showers, snow east of Cascades, and subfreezing temperatures.  The cause will be Arctic Cold air mass pooling over the Yukon and interior BC (1048-1050 mb), then moving south.  A first shot of cold will arrive around Jan 29 or 30th.  For now, models keep us DRY with this cold air mass, although temps will drop fast east of the Cascades.  An east wind will push cold air through the Gaps - Fraser and Columbia.  The second, much colder outbreak - the 1048-1050 mb Dome noted above - arriving by Feb 2.  This one has the potential to drive temperatures down to 10-15 degrees in the Bellingham area (powerful winds again!) with SNOW at the surface probable, if this verifies.  Portland and Willamette Valley could get temps in the low 20s.  Dates are Feb 2-4.  

 

SNOW should be primarily centered over NW WA and maybe around Portland, depending on where a Low develops and moves in from the west.  Too early to peg location for any of The White just yet, other than above 500 - 1,000 ft for western OR, lower as one goes north of Portland.   Some models bring in moisture from the south, threatening snow from roughly Salem north.  Point for now is that a pattern somewhat similar to that of December appears to be possible early in February.  Plan now, just in case.  Travel will be impacted yet again.  The WIND issue for southern BC and north Puget Sound could be serious.  Stay Tuned to ALL of your favorite weather sources.

 

The first weekend in February looks to be either WET at sea level locations, with snow in the hills, or quite a mess, as moisture moves in from the west over the colder air pressing through the Fraser Gap and, to a lesser degree, the Columbia Gorge.  Seattle north could be a nightmare dressed in White. 

 

Note: the Yukon Dome could do its usual, and skirt southeast along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, leaving the PNW alone.  We have seen all of these ‘wild winter’ events charting before, only to find out models were in error.  Still, the models get it right enough to warrant preparations ahead of time.   For newcomers to the PNW: having winter weather repeats in February is not uncommon.

 

 

 

Not a lot of precipitation ahead for the rest of January.  A delightful weekend is coming soon.  Refill time.

 

A very weak system will usher in showers at times for areas mainly north of Chehalis / Olympia later today through Tue.  NW OR may catch a shower here & there, but should miss most of the precipitation.  A system due in later on Wed will carry a bit more moisture, so expect rain & showers overnight Wed Jan 19 into Thu the 20th for both OR & WA; NW WA will be get the most rainfall.  By Friday, high pressure will rebuild & center east of the Cascades, setting up an offshore breeze for the coming weekend.  Nice.

Yes, Spring-like temps are possible again this coming weekend - Jan 22,23 - esp for western OR.  As noted above, an offshore breeze should minimize the foggy mornings and present a sunny blue sky with temps in the upper 50s (maybe even lower 60s in southern OR).  Strong east WINDS across most of California.

 

The offshore air flow component will diminish as the week of Jan 24th get under way, allowing for foggy-bottoms to return in the usual locations (ie: southern Willamette Valley, etc).  A Low may drift south, off the PNW coast, but should not yield much precipitation inland.  By later that week, we are seeing all kinds of solutions on the model charts, so we’ll simply report the trend is for continued dry conditions, with increasing chance for rain returning by the last weekend of January.  Some solutions develop a rather strong storm system moving down along the Alaskan Panhandle/BC coast, which, if it verifies, may return the PNW to a wintery pattern (coastal & Cascade range snow and notably colder temps).

 

Early February continues to look COLDER with snow levels dropping below Cascade passes & into the coast ranges, as well as across the eastern basins.  We’ll have to wait for long-range charts to settle down, but for now, we will caution that another round of wintery weather cannot be ruled out for early February (and, we will be monitoring another Yukon High pressure ridge above 1040 mb).  Keep your Mug handy.