Ok, what’s that tag line all about?  Get your Mug refilled.

 

Yes, after an extended period with very little precip and mild Feb temperatures, our weather will return to a winter pattern for a few weeks.  The weekend will start out dry, then a cold front will drop in from the NW.  Rain & showers will spread across the PNW by Sunday, with the freezing level dropping each day.  By Tue, the coldest air will be in place, so don’t be surprised to see rain/snow mixed at the surface overnight Tue, as well as a dusting of snow, esp south of Salem and the higher foothills (500 ft+), as cold air filters in from the Columbia Gorge as the moisture source exits to the south.

 

A High pressure ‘Dome’ over NE Alaska & the Yukon will deepen to around 1044 mb by Tue night and shift into position to start up an offshore flow of cold air.  The Fraser Gap Outflow will kick-in sometime late Tue (and, to a lesser degree, the Columbia Gorge by Wed/Thu).  Temperatures west side of the Cascades are likely to drop into the low 20s on Wed morning, and repeat in the mid-20s the next couple of mornings.  It will be crisp in the afternoons, as well.  

 

It will warm up again (upper 40s to low 50s) the last weekend of February, but it will be WET and breezy.  A series of moist Pacific systems are charting to arrive in succession starting Saturday evening (north-to-south).  There will be breaks in the precipitation, but all-in-all, a wet pattern for several days.  (Total precipitation from roughly Feb 27 to March 6 should be just over 2” in NW WA to 1.5” in the Willamette Valley.). Also, the air mass will be on the cold side, so plenty of mountain snow in that period and, quite possibly, as few snow flakes mixed in at the surface, at times, early March.  Any thoughts of pre-planting ‘working the ground’ will have to be put on hold.  Jokingly, a new atmospheric refrigerator will arrive, door open - - potentially, the coldest cycle since December.

 

 

Valentine’s Day 2022 

 

The cold-hearted storm is arriving, so breezy conditions, short-shot of rain with a few inches of mountain snow.  Love it.  What’s next?  Refill that Mug for those details.

 

The air mass moving in is the coldest in several days, so showers will pop up, at times, on through early Tue.  Other than an outside chance for a shower along the coast range on Wed, the rest of this week will be dry, with slightly warmer temps each afternoon.  Don’t count out a foggy morning, in the usual locations.  The coming weekend will start out dry, before another damp system moves Saturday night, Feb 19 from the NW.  Rain band will drape across the region, north-to-south, as Sunday progresses.  This storm will be notably wetter than our Valentine’s Day system.  Also, the air aloft will be colder, post-frontal passage, so expect snow levels to drop considerably overnight Sunday.  

 

FROSTY Monday morning Feb 21, even for Patrons in the Sacramento Valley (if the wind lets up there).  The storm will bring cold temps deep into southern CA, so snow showers in the mountains around Los Angeles are possible.  A weak secondary front may usher in rain/snow mixed showers - over the Puget Sound north of Everett Monday night; snow showers for the Cascades.  Mid-week will remain chilly, but dry.  Next round of precipitation may arrive on Thu Feb 24 and be confined to western WA; OR should remain dry south of Portland.  Dry to end the last full week of February.

 

Dry & mild is charting for Sat and Sunday Feb 26,27.  Models hint at rain - again - returning on a Monday, Feb 28, but only over NW WA and southern BC.  March should start dry & chilly, with an onshore breeze.

 

Second half of February:  we will get periodic, quick episodes of rain & showers breaking through mostly dry days.  Temperatures, in general, will trend cooler than the first half.  Don’t set out patio plants just yet, as sub-freezing overnight lows are in the works, as well.

 

 

 

“— always get me down.”   A classic tune (Carpenters 1971) which explains the next couple of Monday’s well.  Mug up & hum along, Patron.

 

Seriously, the next two Mondays will be wet, with dry conditions in between.  An offshore, east wind should pick-up this weekend, helping to clear the low cloud deck and allowing some sunshine in lower elevations.  A 'cold-hearted' disturbance will arrive by Valentine’s Day (Mon) ushering in a splash of precipitation for a few hours.  

 

That cold front will weaken as it moves over northern CA on Tue, returning the PNW to dry conditions on into the next weekend, Feb 19,20.  NW breezes will be in play most of next week.  That weekend may bring back some fog in the mornings, esp south of Salem.  Cool showers and/or cloudiness is possible for Patrons on Vancouver Island.  

 

A weak cold is charting to move over the PNW again overnight Sunday into Mon Feb 21.  The latest model solutions weaken this so much, we may escape without much rain, but for now, expect at least some showers as that cold air cell moves south over the PNW into California.  This system is likely to develop into a decent winter storm over the Golden State, and provide unwanted wet conditions to the blossoming almond orchards in the Sacramento Valley; snow in the Sierra Nevada range.

 

Cool weather over the PNW following the damp Monday system will yield to more rainfall later in the week.  Model scenarios vary, of course, as to the intensity and spacing of wet systems, but we can at least project that the Feb 22-25 period should be more wet than dry.  A change from an otherwise dry second month of 2022.  

 

The last weekend of February is trending mild and dry, with foggy bottoms returning to the usual locations.  

 

 

 

Plenty of dry days ahead, with limited precipitation during a cool down.  Refill & read.

 

Morning fog early this week will be blown away by offshore winds that are charting to start Thu or early Fri.  Columbia Gorge outflow could be strong Fri night, as an east wind howls, at least according to some model solutions.  Temps will warm nicely heading into the coming weekend (mid-to-upper 50s possible west side. 

 

A Cold-hearted Low will drop in from the NW sometime on Valentine’s Day, ushering in rain & showers for several hours.   It will cool down notably Tue & Wed mornings, with the snow levels dropping in the mountains as the precipitation runs out.  This same cold push of air may also increase the winds across much of California by the middle of next week.  Meanwhile, back to dry wx in the PNW, with the likelihood for morning fog to return.  

 

Another cold, wet system is charting to drop in Thu night Feb 17.  Expect a Valentine’s Day repeat.  There is the possibility for a COLD pattern to return to the PNW behind that cold front, however, models have been inconsistent for this scenario.  For now, we’ll say the Feb 17-18 cold front will be followed by a couple chilly weekend days, before another round of cold, wet air will moves in from the NW Mon-Wed Feb 21-23; snow levels could drop into the foothills, or rain/snow mix at the surface, esp the Puget Sound north.   We’ll monitor this, just in case models retro back to a modified Arctic air scenario.

 

Bottom line:  it will remain mostly dry for the next couple of weeks, as the overall the amount of precipitation will remain below average for the month.