More four letter words on the way.  Snow. Cold. Wind. Rain.  Mug refills, too.  Ready?  Lots of detail to sip through.

 

Plenty of beautiful snowscapes this holiday weekend.  We received 4” here in Albany area; others had more of The White.  The Fraser Arctic Outflow has been brutal, with wind chills below zero, snow drifts reported as high as 6 feet in areas north of Bellingham.  Cold temps will continue to drop even lower as the week progresses, esp for Oregon, as that modified Arctic air seeps south.  More —

 

Snow.  A system is rapidly moving down the BC coast, returning light snow to the region again.  Most of the snowfall tonight & Tue will be over Oregon & portions of SW WA.  A couple of inches are possible; higher amounts likely south of Salem.  A repeat is possible starting over NW WA / Vancouver BC, spreading south through Thu, with wider area of steady snow likely; the Puget Sound has a real chance to get hammered with a dose of The White.  This system may bring a southerly ’tongue’ of warmer air aloft, so freezing level briefly rise, mainly over portions of western OR, hence less of a major snow threat.  Still, your WxCafe expects most areas will receive more snow, at times into Fri.  

 

New Year’s Day could usher in a dusting of snow over western WA, north of Portland.  Messy mix of snow, snow/rain mix, or freezing rain for large areas of the PNW as first weekend of 2022 progresses.  It’s early to forecast this, but the storm charting for Sunday & Monday Jan 2,3 could be a real tough one, with all kinds of travel issues.  Lastly, more snow possible next week & again (long-view right now) around the 8th for NW WA, all by the 9th and 10th.   Winter.

 

Cold.  Coldest periods out of the next 10 days looks to be middle of this week, Wed & Thu Jan 5,6 next week, and Sun-Wed, Jan 9-12.  Any daytime thaw will quickly refreeze.  Snow on top of a sheet of ice makes for dangerous transport, by car or foot.  Don’t space out on this.

 

Wind.  The Fraser Outflow event will subside a bit over the next couple of days, then restart, although to a lesser degree.  We see renewed Outflows on/off between now & Jan 13.  Each will draw cold, interior Canadian air into the NW corner of WA & BC.  Similarly for the Columbia River Gorge - expect east wind to pick up this week, next weekend and again by Jan 11 or 12th.  

 

Rain.  Yes, we still see normal PNW rains returning, which could be quite heavy at times, later in our forecast period.  Even then, if the cold air returns, snow will be mixed in at times, as well.  Too early to pin down, but overall plenty of “precipitation” will reach the ground as snow or rain over the next 2 weeks.  We may hear about Atmospheric Rivers, too.

 

Please pardon the excess use of numbers & dates presented here.  Confusing on first read.  Bottom line - there’s a lot of winter weather on the charts for the PNW as 2021 ends and the New Year begins.  Keep safe, and enjoy The White.

 

 

The staff here (me, myself & I) wish you and the family, a wonderful Christmas this year.   The weather details that we presented in the Special Statement published on Dec 22 remain the foundation of this forecast update.  Will try to keep this brief.

 

Rain, wind, showers and plenty of mountain, foothill snow on the way today into this evening.  Several areas are reporting snow, as well.  Christmas Day will present rain showers turning to SNOW showers, at times, starting up north (NW WA, BC) and moving south by midnight across west side locations.  Timing may vary.  

 

Mittens Time.  SNOW showers Sunday & Monday, with a few thrown in on Tue, esp south of Salem.  Modified Arctic Air moving in mid-week will be very dry, but we do see some moisture moving from the Pacific, at times.  STATIC ELECTRICITY will get your attention. News media & regional forecasters are working hard to keep PNW residents informed.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings.

 

COLDER as the week progresses, with record or near record LOW temps possible, depending on snow cover & position of the cold Arctic air east of the Cascades.  The brunt of this Arctic Event will hit NW Washington/BC.  Single digit lows possible in NW WA; 12 - 17 degrees are possible in wind-sheltered, snow cover locations up & down the western valleys of the PNW.  We will have a few DRY CRISP winter afternoons.  Sunglasses needed for snow-glare!  

 

The amount of moisture that could arrive next week is uncertain, but overall, any that does should fall as SNOW in most locations until late week.  We could have a slight warm-up (just above freezing) late next week, but models return additional low-snow cold after New Year’s Day weekend.  Winter will not let go completely as we enter 2022.  

 

California will have plenty of weather issues, from heavy rain, to lower-than-usual snowfall, to subfreezing temps in the north.

 

Bring your Mug here again on Monday.  Merry Time has arrived.

 

-Rufus

 

— ARCTIC OUTBREAK EVENT —  

 

For all residents of the PNW, wx through the entire Christmas & New Year’s holiday period will be SNOWY, COLD and memorable, if model projections verify.  Therefore, this Special Statement is warranted.

 

Washington: broadly speaking, the Arctic Air will arrive during the Christmas weekend - the coldest may be delayed by 24-36 hrs.  NW WA & Vancouver BC areas will get hit first with snow and WIND, as the Fraser Gap Outflow picks up during the weekend.  Fraser Gap WIND will be powerful and likely to cause some power outages.  WIND chills will be dangerous for exposed skin.  Most of the moisture will push farther south into OR, but enough will be around for a few inches of snow to accumulate by Monday.  Western WA in general will receive snow, with temps dropping into the low teens (or lower in wind sheltered areas) by the middle of next week.   Sub-zero temps east of the Cascades are probable.

 

Oregon: colder air will be a bit slower to arrive (per usual in these type of patterns), so don’t expect much SNOW until Sunday Dec 26.  A few inches of SNOW will be on the ground by the Monday morning commute.  Snow on Monday could be rather heavy south of Salem.  The coldest period next week will arrive by Wed or Thu, as more moisture streams in, as well.  SNOW will likely be heavier in the southern Willamette Valley through next week (similar to 2008).  Columbia Gorge Outflow increases significantly next week.  Temps, with snow on the ground, are likely to drop below 10 degrees, esp on the 29th & 30th, and again New Year’s morning.  Sub-zero temps east of the Cascades.

 

Prepare for extended sub-freezing temperatures.  Models are trending toward high & low temps remaining below freezing for several days.  Whatever snow that falls will remain in place.  Patrons with hoops/tunnel growing systems need to prepare for snow-weight issues, per past experiences.  When we begin to get out of the winter grip, freezing rain and/or rain will add considerable weight to greenhouse covers.  

 

Currently, the key snow periods are charting for Sunday/Monday Dec 26,27; Tuesday night Dec 28. Thu night & Fri Dec 30,31; Tue Jan 4 - WA only.  Cumulative snow during the entire holiday period could be over 10” for most west side locations.  We have seen several model runs keep the cold air in place through at least Jan 6, with more snow, as well.  However, the trend is for warmer, wet weather to bring the PNW back to normal that week.  We’ll review this later.  

 

In Summary:  a White Christmas is possible for Patrons north of Portland.  Snow is highly likely across all western WA & OR the day after Christmas & next week.  Sub-freezing temperatures for several days, with single digit lows possible west side.  Exiting the Arctic event could mean freezing rain, at times.

 

 

 

For those that dare to dream of a White Christmas — grab a Mug, fill it, and let’s see if that dream will come true this year.

 

In our last report, we repeated one of the frequent attributes of wx models - that earlier prognostications often end up being correct.  On Dec 13 we wrote extensively about what could happen in the period from Christmas Eve through the following week — that a White Christmas was possible across most of the PNW (if you still have that email, read it again, as that will best explain the dynamics of what may happen later this week).  Now, what gives?

 

We have a better than 50% chance for a White Christmas here in the Willamette Valley, SW WA, Puget Sound environs, Lynden/Abbotsford, etc.  What we have coined ’The Juneau Low’ — our Christmas Present from Alaska —  will, by tomorrow Dec 21, begin to drop south along the Alaskan Panhandle & coastal BC to arrive in time for the big holiday.  The cold-centered Juneau Low, along with additional Lows will have enough trajectory over the eastern Pacific to pick up moisture and roll it onshore for surface snows, on and off, from Christmas Eve into early 2022.  Remember 2008?  Cold air aloft should keep the snow around between snow systems.  Some of the Lows will bring rain at first, then back to snow.

 

Cold Arctic air pooling over eastern Alaska/Yukon will also be shifting southeast, setting up the classic cold outflow from the Fraser Gap (and post-Christmas, the Columbia River Gorge).  Temperatures will plummet as the modified Arctic air gushes through the Gaps (Fraser Gap WINDS will be potentially damaging strong.  Prepare.)  We will get into the subfreezing temperature outlooks in a later report, for now, be sure to prep business & residential plumbing and thawed livestock water supplies, as this event could extend several days overall.  Travel will be challenging at all elevations.

 

How much snow?  Projections are always iffy, but for now, we will peg 2”-6” snow south of Salem, 6”-8” Salem north, similar amounts over much of western WA between Dec 24 & Jan 4.  Bellingham north will likely deal with snow drifts in the usual problem areas.  Again, all of this snow dream stuff could be just that, a dream.  However, there is less uncertainty as confidence is growing throughout wx forecasting industry in the PNW that The White is quite possible as the holidays get underway.

 

For now, the heavy rain (Mary’s River at Corvallis at flood stage) will cease as this day (Dec 20) progresses.  Tue should be mostly dry and relatively mild.  The next wet, breezy system is due sometime on Wed.  This one is the first of upcoming Lows spinning south along the Alaska Panhandle & BC coast.  The second one will combine with the 1st to become our Christmas Present, setting up the snowy forecast you just sipped through.

 

California will get in on the action, first as rain/wind storms, then the potential for low level snowfall as far south as the Bay Area.  News time, if this verifies.  The Sacramento Valley could get a hard frost if the sky clears during Christmas Weekend, and again in early January.  Bundle up; protect plumbing.

 

 

Colder weather is still on the way, although getting enough moisture to arrive at the same time may hold off a White Christmas this year.  That said, we still have the chance for some surface snow after Christmas.  Let’s explain.

 

This weekend.  A wet system will swing across the PNW, north-to-south, starting later tonight and Saturday into Sunday.  Breezy.  Vancouver Is & the Puget Sound will be first to get rain, then OR; freezing levels will rise ahead of the system.  Colder, dry air will be drawn into NW WA out of the Fraser Gap as an outflow begins to develop.  Not super cold.  A Low pressure trough west of the OR coast will spin some moisture over OR and SW WA Monday & Tue.  Snow showers will remain in the mountains.  That Low will remain off the coast next week, before slowing moving south to impact CA with plenty of rain & mountain snow.  Probably mostly dry and chilly Wed & Thu next week.

 

Christmas Eve, Day and weekend:  A relatively weak “Juneau Low" will move south from Juneau Alaska, setting up the chance for SNOW showers in the far north corner of WA late Christmas Day or night, as the Low will position just right to crank up quite a Fraser Gap outflow.  For the rest of us, it will be on the chilly side, but moisture will be limited, with temps generally remaining above freezing.  That Christmas Juneau Low will continue south, impacting CA by Sunday/Mon Dec 26,27.  (Please note: as discussed previously, this system has charted, at times, as strong and wet, with the potential for a snowy period across much of the PNW during the holiday weekend.  That was probably a model error, but model projections do shift, back and forth, so we’ll keep an eye on this next week.)

 

Post Christmas Uncertainty.  We have seen another Juneau Low on the extended-range wx charts for the week after Christmas, combined with a strong Fraser River outflow, it may set up a snowy pattern before the end of the year.  Several models are agreeing on a colder period after Christmas, but not firm enough to stick a forecast.  Anyway, that week may be rather cold, with frosty mornings if the sky clears in your location, or wet at times with snow in the foothills.  Stormy in CA.  Models also toy with a possible modified Arctic outbreak, too.  We are not confident about that at this time; maybe there will be less uncertainty for our next writing.  Keep your Mug handy.