Getting excited about a 6-8 day stretch of dry, mild weather seems odd, but we all know that would result in the longest dry period in seemingly forever.  Break out the t-shirts and Mug up for more details.  

 

Indeed, we are at the beginning of what could end up as a 7-8 day dry spell.  There will be a day or two with increased cloudiness (and maybe a shower over the northern portion of Vancouver Is), but overall pleasant farming and outdoor wx is before us.  Finally.  The next period of rain/showers & cool temps could start next Fri or hold off until the middle of the Memorial Day weekend.  Latest models runs are trending for the later.  Temps should range from the 60s into the middle 70s over the next week.  Pollination buzzzzz.

 

Memorial Day weekend:  With either scenario mentioned above, Saturday looks mostly dry & warm.  A wet cycle is charting to return on Sunday May 29.  Memorial Day itself looks damp & unseasonably on the cold side.  Plan accordingly for any outdoor activity.  We will update this on the 23rd.

 

The week following the holiday is trending cool & damp for just about every day.  Crop development will again slow, if the projected temperatures verify; sweaters or jackets will be needed again. 

 

“An expert can take something you already know and make it sound confusing.”  

 

-Rufus

 

A favorable turn toward normal May weather is in the works.  In fact, a 5-to-6 consecutive day dry spell is on the charts.  Read on for the reveal.

 

This week will start dry, although cloudiness will hinder the sunshine, at times.  The next WET system is due to arrive early Wed, so complete any ground work ahead of Wed, if the soil is dry enough.  Thu looks to be quite chilly for May, with showers early.  Fri morning could be the coldest of the week, although temps should hold above freezing (excluding the usual cold spots east of the Cascades).  The turn starts this Friday.

 

Yes.  Model solutions are beginning to agree on a DRY SPELL that could last through the coming weekend on into the middle of next week.  That would be a 6 day run, if it verifies.  For Vancouver Island  NW WA Patrons, an increase in the onshore flow late Sat & Sunday will likely push cool marine clouds inland.  Temperatures in OR should remain mild.  For Monday - Wed, May 23-25, cloudiness over the Puget Sound is possible, with sunny Western OR topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Thursday May 26 could be one more dry day, or the beginning of the turn back to wet, too early to call.

 

Memorial Weekend approaches with another turn in the weather.  Unfortunately, back to damp, chilly conditions.  Indications are that by Thu or Fri May 26,27 rain will return, on & off, through the holiday weekend.  Sat May 28 may be the drier/warmer day of the holiday.  A second front arrives from the NW on Sunday, ushering in what could be the coldest Memorial Day in recent memory.  Time will tell.

 

June is trending to start out dry & mild.  

 

Topical Tropical:  The 1st tropical storm of the season has been showing on the long-range charts and tracking towards the west coast of FL around Wed May 25.  The system could begin to develop southwest of Cuba, near the Yucatan.  Should this verify, ANA will be the name and the media will get fired up.

 

 

 

A few dry days are showing up.  When?  Let’s review the latest outlook.

 

A mild weekend ahead in regard to temperatures, but it will not be totally dry.  A system will arrive this evening, Fri the 13th, essentially from the west, hence the warmer temps (in the 60s).  Rain will turn to showers later Sat.  Another cooler storm will spin into SW BC on Sunday, so Patrons around the Puget Sound can expect additional precipitation; OR Patrons should be mostly dry.

 

Next week looks to open with a dry, mild Monday & Tue. There is the chance for a weak disturbance to usher in showers later on Tue, but that has been trending away.  Wed will be WET, as a cold front moves across the region; continued showers on Thu with cooler temperatures, yet again.  Here comes some dry.  Fri May 20 and on into the weekend of the 21st & 22nd, we are seeing nice Spring weather on the charts.  Plus, we see dry, mild conditions holding until late Tue night, May 24.  That’s a potential 4-5 day stretch of warm, dry wx.  For our Patrons in the eastern basins and high desert, a weak Low may usher in showers or thunderstorms Mon May 23.

 

Rain & showers are charted to return Wed the 25th over the entire PNW, as will the pesky chilly temperatures to close the week.  We are getting hints that Memorial Day weekend could be dry & very warm, with a muggy warm front possible moving in from the SW late Sunday May 29.  

 

 

 

The lack of an extended dry spell remains our vexing problem here in the PNW.  Is there any relief in sight?  Hint: holding your breath would be unwise at this time.  Mug up.

 

Today, and to a lesser extent tomorrow, showers will keep popping up around the region as cold air aloft & lift sets off the showers.  There will be nice sun breaks, as well.  FROST risk tonight, esp across the eastern half of the PNW, if the sky clears in your area.  RAIN returns late Wednesday, as another cold front drops in from the NW.  As this week ends, the models project more rain/showers; breezy.  (Note that there are a couple model solutions that tap down the amount of precip and open up more sunshine and warmth this weekend.)  That said, the overall trend is for more rain Fri & Sat.  Sunday could be mostly dry & warmer by a few degrees.  

 

Next week, May 16-20, presents relatively DRY conditions until sometime on Wed the 18th.  A windy system may arrive, ushering in warmer temps along with lots of rain, unfortunately.  Thu is likely to be damp & windy, too.  Another STRONG (for this time of year) system could arrive late Fri May 20.  This one has the potential to kick-up quite a WIND FIELD, depending on the track of the Low.   Growers using tunnel/hoop production may need to pay attention, as this storm could produce surface winds exceeding 35 mph primarily in the Willamette Valley.  This is NOT a definite, just a heads-up for now.  We will make the effort to keep you posted here by “Special Statements”, if warranted.  Drying out on Sat & Sunday, May 21,22.  Hopefully.

 

The last full week of May is way out there, but for now, models hint at continued shots of rain/showers, although with notably warmer temperatures.  We’ll see.

 

 

An emotion word for a wx forecast?  Well, sip on for the explanation.

 

The long-lasting chilly, damp weather this Spring was supposed to end soon.  That was the encouraging aspect of our last forecast here on May 2.  Disappointment is the feeling that follows the failure of expectations or hopes to manifest — that is the feeling this update conjures in your host.  The extended dry spell has been brushed off the weather charts for now.  The ag industry in particular will continue to struggle with completing the required tasks this Spring.  In many areas of the PNW, April 2022 was the coolest and wettest on record; May is starting out in a similar vein.  Drat.  Now the update.

 

A cold weekend in store, with a wet system arriving today, the 6th (windy, esp in OR).  Afternoon sun breaks will spur on thunderstorms around the entire region, with the highest chance today and again on Mother’s Day.  Cold air aloft, high-angle sun (when it peeks through) and plenty of atmospheric moisture all combine for generating intense afternoon showers / thunderstorms.  In fact, Sunday (Mother’s Day) could be the one of the coldest on record, if model solutions verify.  Oh my. 

 

Given the cold air in place later Sunday into Tue, FROST is possible, esp if the sky clears in your location, either side of the Cascades.  It should be mostly dry Mon & Tue, with the next wet system likely to arrive sometime on Wed May 11th.  That disturbance could be delayed until after dark on Wed.  We’ll see.  Models have differed on the solution for Friday the 13th and that weekend - some suggest a dry pattern will set up for several days (as we discussed in our last report); others bring back a wet system on the 13th, with showers continuing at least through Sat May 14.  That is the trend.

 

What we had originally expected for the week of May 16-20 as seasonal, dry and warm is now trending back to a wet, chilly period.  If this verifies, there will be negative impact of regional agriculture.  Disappointment all around.