Lots of weather action on the way for the next several days.  And, there remains plenty of variance in model projections as to whether or not snow reaches the surface or remains above 500-1,000 ft later this week.  Let’s take a look.  Mug time.

Rain has begun.  Today (Monday) will be damp, with increasing WIND & RAIN intensity overnight into Tue.  A large, deep Low is moving onshore north of Vancouver Island, but it is so deep (visualize a large bowl with the center north of Vancouver Is.) that the WIND FIELD from the storm will impact western OR & WA.  Gusts are likely to exceed 50 mph, esp around the Puget Sound region (& coast, of course).  Simultaneously, freezing levels will drop fast, ushering in a MAJOR BLIZZARD situation across the WA & OR Cascades.  Nat’l Wx Service personnel have posted several warnings about this situation.  Stay out of the mountains for a few days.  Snow will be measured by the feet; wind gusts to exceed 60 mph.  Visibility - don’t even think about it.  Coastal flooding is a concern, as king tides will be ‘magnified’ by the strong onshore winds.

Tue & Wed Jan 9,10: a secondary smaller system is modeled to come onshore somewhere around Astoria late Tue evening.  Areas north of that Low may get snowfall down to the surface, or very near so.  (We should note that this smaller Low may not even develop.)  Expect less rain on Wed, with colder temps and the chance for rain or snow showers around the entire region.  Similar for Thu, except that Arctic air will begin to rush through the Fraser Gap - dropping temps even more across northern WA and BC.  Snow showers possible all day into Fri during this Gap outflow.  Western OR & SW WA should see rain/snow showers, but the air mass may remain warm enough at the surface to limit any snowfall.  

As the modified Arctic air mass settles farther south & east, the eastern basins of WA & OR, as well as ID, will continue to chill down.  The bulk of the super cold air will remain east of the Rockies (per the latest model solutions).  A warm front will move onshore Fri night or early Sat morning - this will set off the chance for snow, freezing rain, or rain, depending on 1) how much cold air fills into the eastern Columbian basin and central OR to flow out of the Columbia Gorge or down the Cascade passes in WA; 2) southern surface winds.  Right now, the greatest threat for frozen precip looks to be over NW WA and maybe Portland area.  The precise center of that Fri night Low will be key.  Stay tuned to local forecasts, as this situation will not be static, with small positional changes having a big impact.

The weekend of Jan 13,14 looks mixed.  Snow, freezing rain or rain.  The Low mentioned above may become stationary west of Astoria and fill in without crossing the state.  Cold air to the east will be drawn west, so hence the mix of frozen precip depending on your location.  The Fraser Gap winds will lessen, but remain present, adding cold air to the ‘pool’ in place from earlier.  Remember though, the coldest portion of this event may remain east of the Rockies, and not be so severe as to keep the west side in a snow plane.  Snow in the Tri-Cities & the rest of the Cascades.

The air mass should warm slowly over the weekend into the early part of the Jan 15-19 period.  Another strong storm system is charting to develop and move south along the BC coast on Tue Jan 16, but this time it is charted to “bump into” a warmer air mass moving in from the west/southwest.  Result: moderate-to-heavy surface rain - first over western WA, then shifting south into OR by Wed.  WINDY.  We do not see a repeat of a cold Yukon air mass pushing through the Fraser Gap, as the Low will track north of the border.

Heavy rain may develop by Fri Jan 19 and last until early Sat Jan 20.  Oregon to get the brunt of this deluge.  It could be mostly dry Sunday and Mon, Jan 21,22, then turn wet again for western WA for a couple of days; OR may dry down.  Temps will be mild during this period.

Again, lots of uncertainty.  Best to be prepared for winter conditions.  As we said the other day, getting in & out of the PNW by road will be a “whitemare” - blowing snow everywhere higher than 1,000 feet.  

You’ll need a hot refill in that Mug for this one.  A change is in the works for a wild winter ride coming soon.  As a caution, remember that all of our long-range forecasts are never absolutely guaranteed to take place, as Nature does its own thing relative to what computer models may project.  Our premise is to be prepared, just in case.  That said, here goes - - - 

Rain returns tonight, after a few showers today.  As the front moves onshore overnight tonight, temps will drop and snow will begin over the Cascades.  The cold front will drop south into CA, as well.  Showers may linger on Sunday, with a chilly afternoon - highs in the 40s.  Mountain snow will be evident.  A weak system will bring additional precipitation overnight Sunday into Monday the 8th.  

Monday night through Tue will be the first big change.  A stronger, colder system begins to move in, with cold air support on the back side.  Expect moderate rain at the surface, with 1-3 feet of snow in the mountains, and a decent shot of snow over the coast range is possible overnight Tue.  It will be windy.  The stage is being set.

A secondary front may form and head for ‘landfall’ Wednesday morning around Astoria.  WINDY & wet in western OR.  Showers in WA.  Cold Arctic air will begin to shift south out of Canada. The Yukon Dome we always refer to is modeled at the 1048-1052 mb level.  Fraser Gap outflow will begin.   A Low will position just west of Vancouver Island on Thu, setting up those strong Fraser Gap winds & much colder temps.  SNOW will be in play now, as the Arctic air makes its way through the Gap into western WA.  That Low will draw Arctic air over the eastern Pacific to pick up moisture, allowing for snowfall down to the surface, or nearly so, for portions of northern OR by overnight Thu.  A southerly breeze may hold snow off valley floors early in the event, but that will change by Fri.

Friday Jan 12. ✲ SNOW showers possible everywhere, with dangerously strong outflow winds in Whatcom County.  The PNW should begin to ‘dry down’ as the Arctic air will be dry.  Temps may not climb out of the 30s on Saturday & Sunday.  The Fraser, and to a lesser extend, the Columbia Gap winds will lessen during the weekend.  Snow showers possible on Sunday Jan 14 across western WA & OR.

Folks, the air mass is charted - by some models - to be quite cold for the PNW.  Lots of variance in that projection, but we have to warn Patrons to prep their water systems, plumbing, etc for subfreezing temps that may last for several days.  This storm next week could just be the first shot.  Oh, California will also be impacted as the Arctic air modifies a bit heading south, but will remain cold enough to initiate snow showers at low elevations in northern CA.   

Overnight Sunday Jan 14 into Monday, cold winds out of the east will increase again for the Fraser & Columbia Gaps.  At the same time, a storm system will begin to approach the west coast of WA, OR & CA.  This is where the situation looks wild.  SNOW at first, followed by freezing rain, and BACK TO SNOW again (!?). The storm may track south of WA, and over western OR.  Simultaneously, cold Arctic air will also be re-enforced by another cold wave out of the Canadian interior.  Rain and/or snow for western valleys, with the chance of all snow for the Portland area (Columbian Outflow) and Puget Sound (Fraser Outflow) during the Tue/Wed Jan 16,17 period.  If this verifies, MULTIPLE INCHES of snow will be the battle, as well as freezing rain.  

Cold Arctic air will continue to be in play as the week of Jan 15-19 ends.  A Low positioned west of Vancouver Island may form, adding moisture over the top of the cold air at the surface.  Broad areas of SNOW probable Thu AND Fri to end the week.  Again, this is WAY out there on the charts, but worthy of mention and ponder.  Cold air may remain in place through the weekend of Jan 20,21.  We’ll see.

In Summary: model solutions range from wet, 40+ degree weather, to COLD, snowy and subfreezing conditions across the entire PNW during the period discussed above.  What we have outlined above is highly probable, so warrants this forecast discussion, as so many businesses, schools, agencies, farmers, cattlemen etc need to prepare just in case.

The Weather Café®️will keep you posted with special statements during the upcoming time frame of events.  More importantly, heed Nat’l Wx Service watches and warnings.  Even if surface snows do not fall, transportation in & out of the PNW by road will be dangerous because of packed snow on the highways.  Air travel may be impacted, if surface snow develops.  Deliveries may be impacted.  You know the drill. 

🔹No wind event this Fri, Jan 5.  

- - - - - -

New Year’s Day 2024

Holiday 🎉 Update.  

Splash of rain returns tomorrow, as a “duel low” system stretches out along the west coast; showers lingering on Wed Jan 3.  Temps will be cool.  Thursday should be dry with areas of fog in the usual locations.  Friday, well, read on —

We have had trouble ’trusting’ the accuracy of wx models this season.  One key cause of model variance may the influence of the current strong El Niño essentially warping model calculus.  Anyway, for a few days now, models have charted a Low pressure system developing rapidly to the west of southern OR, moving “inside” the 130 line and tracking a path for landfall over the NW corner of WA or southern Vancouver Island.  With a barometric center of 981 mb, this system could generate a considerable WIND FIELD across western OR and / or WA.  The storm could deepen even more than model projections, or be a none event.  For now — we’ll forecast the potential for a WINDY Friday morning, with an added chance for strong wind gusts over 40 mph mid-day inland from the coast.  A special statement will be issued on Wed, if warranted.  It will be a wet system, as well, with plenty of surface rain and lots of SNOW in the mountains, as the back-side of the system will fill with colder air aloft.

The coming weekend looks COLD, with snow levels quite possibly down to the foothills, coast range, etc.  Rain / Snow mixed at the surface should not be ruled out Saturday night.  The cold front will also drape down across ALL of California and south into Baja, with the chance for frost, if the sky clears (including the PNW).

The next notable system is charting to arrive Tue Jan 9, moving in from farther north over the Pacific - and be colder! The storm is not indicated to have a deeper center pressure (this one around 988 mb), but it is charting to make landfall farther south, over Astoria.  AND, it will have colder air ’support’ - meaning snow levels may drop lower than that we experience this weekend.  Interesting.  It will be possible to see quite a bit of rain/snow mix at the surface, and snow above 500 ft.  Will it be all snow at the surface overnight Tue and into Wed Jan 10?  Again, interesting.  

That second cold front will also track south over CA, for another wintery mix for the Golden State.  Should current projections verify, the Low will strengthen after moving south of the Bay area, setting up quite a winter storm for southern CA.  News maker, if this happens.  

The PNW will turn drier, with morning frost if the sky clears, late Thu and Fri.  A Yukon Dome of 1042 mb will develop and may shift south to set up a short-shot of cold air out of the Fraser Gap, and to a lesser extent, the Columbia Gorge for the weekend of Jan 13,14.  

A few degrees warmer by Monday the 15th, with rain likely late day.  That said, a Low moving down the coast of BC may draw cold air down the Fraser Gap and set up a wintery mix for NW WA on the 15th.  WAY to early on this, but a ponder point for wx geeks.   We will continue to monitor the Yukon area for developing High pressure Domes.  Almost always the precursor to snow around these here parts.

Gift wrapping all done, time to wrap up the old year.  Could colder, low-snow-level weather be in our future?  Mug time.

Rain & showers will be around today through early Saturday, along with a notable east wind out of the Columbia Gorge today.  Other than that, rather tranquil wx conditions are in store for the last weekend of 2023.  Fog may be in play, but other than that, expect temperatures to chill down a few degrees from the mild ones we have experienced the past several days.   New Year’s Eve look dry & chilly.  California will dry out, as well, over the later portion of the weekend.  Damaging high surf is coming onshore along the Golden State coastline.  

New Year’s Day: chilly & dry for the entire west coast, excluding San Diego / Baja, where a system will spin cold shower onshore as the Ball drops in New York City.  

The first, short work week of the New Year may present breezy damp conditions for the PNW overnight Tue the 2nd, with additional showers, at times, through the week.  Some model solutions keep the region dry, except for the far NW corner of WA into BC.  As the week nears an end, we do see a colder pattern beginning to develop following a wet Fri Jan 5, as cold air settles over the eastern Pacific, ushering in lowering snow levels by overnight Fri into Sat, Jan 5,6.  The main Low pressure cell will move into CA, leaving the PNW on the cold side of ’the jet’, which means freezing levels could drop well below the passes, as the weekend of Jan 6,7 turns much colder.  We’ll see.

The week of Jan 8-12 has a lot of uncertainty in the model outlook, but the trend is for on & off rain/showers with chilly temps and even the threat for rain/snow mixed down to the surface late week.  COLD Yukon air mass, with High pressure over 1040 mb may begin to influence PNW weather.  However, lots of “debate” between various long-range model solutions - some keep the colder air bottled up well to the NE, others present a more classic Fraser Gap & Columbia Gap outflows of modified Arctic air by Jan 13,14.  Either way, we forecast a colder, damp cycle moving into play as January 2024 unfolds.  Typical PNW winter weather.  (Note: big winter storm may hit much of the eastern half of the country the week of Jan 8-12.)

🎄 Christmas Day 2023

Cup of morn’n coffee in hand, before getting started on a turkey dinner for the holiday.  Thanks for putting up with silly grammar errors, incorrect dates and the informal manner of our forecast discussions; your patience & tolerance is the backbone of this venture.  Sip.

Rain & showers, on & off, are in the forecast through most of this week.   Breaks, if they occur in your location, will be short-lived.  Temps will be a bit warmer than the past several days, with a W-SW component of air flow into the region.  Breezy at times.  

End of 2023.  The coming weekend does look drier, esp by Sunday, although temps will be cooling down notably.  Fog may be in play on New Year’s Day.  Models have not settle down for this period yet, but that is the current trend.  

We may enter a cool, dry spell for several days before rain & Cascade snow return the first weekend of 2024.