The 1977 Star Wars opening crawl text was preceded by the classic line, “A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…”  Well, a long time ago, in an atmosphere far, far away, October was the month when Fall rains began in earnest across the PNW.  Our "only hope" for precipitation to begin during the weekend of Oct 22,23 has been fading away with each forecast update.  Best get your morn'n refill and read on.

 

No rain is expected around the PNW through this weekend and all of next week.  Sure, a very weak trough may drop over northern Vancouver Is. and portions of southern BC, but it is likely to be a cloud event only.  The rest of the region will remain dry.  Saturday the 15th will be quite warm.  Temps next week should be in the low 70s in most locations excluding the coast.

 

As you’ll recall, models solutions have, for the past 7-10 days, suggested that RAIN would arrive by the weekend of Oct 22,23.  Current model runs are now trending away from that solution.  A cold system may still drop in from the NW on the 22nd - but not down over the bulk of the PNW; instead it will skirt across interior BC, missing Abbotsford, Vancouver Is., and the rest of the PNW.  Drat.  Clouds & showers could clip northern Vancouver Island by Mon night, Oct 24 and continue a few days thereafter.  Generally, though, it will cool down a few degrees.

 

We may have to wait until the 28th for rain to reach western WA (skipping nearly all of OR & ID), as models keep the very dominate, blocking High pressure ridge in place over most of the PNW through at least Halloween.  Now, that’s scary for water resource managers.

 

 

 

To start this week, the region will experience a brief break from the unusually warm October weather, before the dominate blocking pattern returns, along with morning fog.  Will rain ever arrive?  Let’s see what the charts reveal.

 

A cold front will rapidly drift over western WA & BC today, ushering in cooler temps, some clouds and an outside chance for a shower, esp in the higher terrain of NW WA & BC.  Oregon will get that break from the morning fog; very limited precip, if any.  As the week moves forward, expect a return to above average temperatures (esp Wednesday the 12th) in just about every location.  Morning fog will also return this week.  

 

A dry, foggy bottom pattern will stretch through Thu Oct 20.  Then, beginning on Fri the 21st, the overall blocking pattern is modeled to change, finally.  While we are not placing bets on this yet, we do see the High pressure ridge shifting west, opening the door for cold fronts to move “down” along the Alaskan Panhandle, coastal BC and into the PNW.  This will usher in the coldest air mass of the fall, with rain/showers, mountain SNOW and overnight lows - if the sky clears - teasing out the first frost of the fall by Thu Oct 27.   For the weekend of Oct 22,23 expect RAIN and wind.  Rainfall could be moderate-to-heavy.  Let’s hope this scenario develops.

 

 

 

Fog and sunshine.  That’s about it for the next two weeks.  But, since you have a refilled Mug ready, we’ll go ahead with a few additional details.  

 

Yep, for many Patrons around the PNW, “foggy bottoms” will continue to greet you each morning, Mug in hand.  In some locations, the fog burns off early, so afternoon temps are pushing near or into the 80s; for many others, much cooler afternoons as that fog persists.  No change in the forecast is seen on the charts for the next 14 days.  The 'big block' is the reason.

 

A large, stationary High pressure ridge is BLOCKING any storms from their usual Fall track into the PNW from the Gulf of Alaska.  Surface Lows are, indeed, out there, but they are literally moving in circles, unable to track east.  There will be a slight adjustment Monday & Tuesday next week.  A Low will drop south out of the Yukon & Northwest Territories into MT, which may, just possibly, create enough pressure difference across the PNW to blow out the fog and let in more direct surface sunlight.  After that?  Bummer - bland, foggy bottom conditions will return to the region for another 10 days or longer.  Yikes.

 

Will October 2022 be one of the driest on record?  Too early for such a proclamation, although it will be close if the 'big block' is not removed.  It will be a long wait for Rain Watchers.  We must remain positive.

 

 

 

That word is DRY.  At least your morn’n Mug is wet.

 

For the first half of October 2022, DRY is likely the word for weather conditions around the PNW & California.  Model solutions have been drifting away from rain returning by the 14th; rain may be held off through the weekend of Oct 15,16.  Geez.  There are a couple of model runs that begin a stormy period to the region after the 15th, one of which could be quite windy, esp over southern BC & NW WA on the 18th.  We’ll see about that.

 

For the next week or so, onshore breezes will be limited to late afternoon, so expect a bit of fog to burn off slowly, yielding to sunshine in the afternoons; temperatures will be mild.  October harvests should proceed without moisture or frost issues, although overnight lows may dip into the upper 30s east of the Cascades around Wed/Thu Oct 12,13, as a Canadian High drops south.  That High could trigger WINDY conditions in southeast OR and CA.

 

Bland is another word to describe our weather for the next couple of weeks.   

 

 

 

We end the ninth month of 2022 with a return to dry.  How long will this dry spell last?  Well, refill that Mug.

 

Indeed, another stretch of dry wx has arrived.  Drat.  We need rain.  Anyway, the long-range pattern keeps surface Lows (our PNW rain producers) twirling around in the Gulf of Alaska, never reaching our shores for the next 11 days.  Temperatures will remain at or above seasonal norms during this dry run.  

 

RAIN should return when the 1st of at least 3 cold fronts cross the PNW starting late Wed Oct 12.  The 2nd, notably stronger, pacific storm should arrive early Fri the 14th.  WINDY & quite wet, esp for NW WA and Vancouver Island.  Temps will drop.  Then, as the weekend of Oct 15,16 gets underway, the 3rd storm will slam into the PNW with plenty of wind & precipitation.  Let’s hope the models verify, and not push back these system to later dates.  Hazelnut harvest could be rather damp.

 

Another tropical system is charting to roll north off the Atlantic coast during that weekend, as well.  Way too early for details, of course, but the position of a High pressure ridge over the New England states should keep the hurricane offshore.