An Atmosphere Far Far Away

 

The 1977 Star Wars opening crawl text was preceded by the classic line, “A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…”  Well, a long time ago, in an atmosphere far, far away, October was the month when Fall rains began in earnest across the PNW.  Our "only hope" for precipitation to begin during the weekend of Oct 22,23 has been fading away with each forecast update.  Best get your morn'n refill and read on.

 

No rain is expected around the PNW through this weekend and all of next week.  Sure, a very weak trough may drop over northern Vancouver Is. and portions of southern BC, but it is likely to be a cloud event only.  The rest of the region will remain dry.  Saturday the 15th will be quite warm.  Temps next week should be in the low 70s in most locations excluding the coast.

 

As you’ll recall, models solutions have, for the past 7-10 days, suggested that RAIN would arrive by the weekend of Oct 22,23.  Current model runs are now trending away from that solution.  A cold system may still drop in from the NW on the 22nd - but not down over the bulk of the PNW; instead it will skirt across interior BC, missing Abbotsford, Vancouver Is., and the rest of the PNW.  Drat.  Clouds & showers could clip northern Vancouver Island by Mon night, Oct 24 and continue a few days thereafter.  Generally, though, it will cool down a few degrees.

 

We may have to wait until the 28th for rain to reach western WA (skipping nearly all of OR & ID), as models keep the very dominate, blocking High pressure ridge in place over most of the PNW through at least Halloween.  Now, that’s scary for water resource managers.