The WxCafe™

A Dry Thanksgiving?

Posted by Rufus La Lone on November 18, 2022

Friday November 18

Long-range outlook is trending away from a wet Thanksgiving. Interesting. Go ahead. Refill that Mug and return here for what could happen.

The current dry, chilly pattern around the PNW will continue through most of this weekend (some locations are teasing a record number of consecutive days with no rainfall for the month of November). A very dominant High pressure ridge, centered over the Continental Divide, has resulted in powerful east winds out of the Columbia Gorge and helped to block Pacific storms from entering the region. That is charting to weaken on Sunday. Therefore, for Patrons on Vancouver Island and in NW WA, a weak system could bring cloudiness & with showers late Sunday.

Thanksgiving week is now trending mostly dry! A weak system is likely to bring a gentle rain for western WA & NW OR overnight Monday into Tue. After that, we may end up with DRY weather on through Thanksgiving Day, with the east wind in the Columbia River Gorge & down the Cascade passes returning (not as strong as current event); the wind will help mitigate morning fog in valley areas. Black Friday is now looking rain-free.

STEADY precipitation should be back for multiple days starting Saturday night of the holiday weekend. A weak system will bring on a few showers Fri night, with a short break during daylight hours on Saturday. By Saturday night the 26th, rain will return. Sunday will be wet all day, with heavy rain charting for Mon & Tue.

Models are quite variable for the last day of November (Wed) and early December. Some solutions present very wet for all the region; others hold the rain over NW WA, missing much of OR. Either way, the first weekend of December is trending dry. We will mention that cumulative precipitation amounts may be quite substantial in the Nov 27 through Dec 1 period, esp for western WA & southern BC. Be prepared for localized flooding.

“Some people use language to express thought, some to conceal thought, and others instead of thought.”

-Rufus

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Unusual Dry Spell

Posted by Rufus La Lone on November 14, 2022

Monday November 14

The month is already half gone. So, too, is the rain for an unusually long period, given the time of year. Here is the dry outlook.

DRY. No rain is forecast between now and late Sunday evening, Nov 20. North Vancouver Island may get a shot of rain on the 19th, but that is iffy. Depending on your location, this could be one of the longest dry spells in the month of November in recent history. October was similar. By the week of Thanksgiving, the next rainy cycle should return.

For this week (Nov 14-18), east-NE winds will pick up considerably out of the Columbia River Gorge & Fraser River Gap; subsequently, temps will remain on the chilly side (fog on & off in the southern Willamette Valley). Subfreezing overnight lows in many locations out of the wind. The cold Yukon Dome of High pressure that we mentioned last time remains in play, however, the coldest “core” of that Dome will remain east of the Rockies. Still, the PNW will get another mini-shot of cold air east of the Cascades, which will, in turn, rush west through the Fraser & Columbia Gaps. Not a super cold event, just a few degrees cooler than the previous few days. Sat & Sunday Nov 19,20 will be dry & chilly.

Rain & Mountain Snow returns. Breezy & wet on Mon the 21st, as the first in a series of Pacific storms moves onshore. Models have varied considerably the past few days as to the strength of said storms, and in the precise timing. So, expect on/off rain & windy conditions to prevail from Nov 21 through the U.S. holiday weekend. Rain on Thanksgiving Day keeps appearing & disappearing on the charts. For now, plan for the possibility of wet should you be traveling on the big bird day. Black Friday is trending mixed like Thanksgiving Day - models are NOT consistent in their forecast for rain. There will be 2 more forecast updates here before the holiday.

Post-Thanksgiving - models continue to indicate stormy weather that weekend (Nov 26,27), with rain, wind and mountain snow on/off for those 2 days. Chilly l& damp to start the work/school week on the 28th.

“Science has been producing so many substitutes lately that it’s hard to remember what it was we needed in the first place."

-Rufus

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Seasonal with a Chill

Posted by Rufus La Lone on November 11, 2022

Veteran’s Day 2022

We tip our Mugs in honor of our Nation’s Veterans. Their service will always be treasured. Weather for the next couple of weeks will be quite seasonal, with another COLD outbreak possible in several days. Here ya go —

For this weekend and into next week - expect a little precip in the Willamette Valley today, but not much, as the system is stretched out off the coast, weakening any impact. The associated Low will slowly ‘fill in’ as it tracks across northern CA, keeping the PNW on the dry side. An east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will begin to increase by the start of next week because a weak High pressure ridge will build over the Continental Divide. Winds will not be as strong as the last shot, but enough to move piled leaves around. Cool temps, with plenty of sunshine likely Mon through Wed.

A Modified Arctic Air mass may arrive in the PNW as next week ends. This 'Yukon Dome’ (our term), could be COLDER than last week, if models verify. High pressure will build during the week over the Yukon & interior Canada before dropping into the lower 48. When we see barometric pressures over 1040 mb in Yukon, we subsequently have the potential for a cold outbreak in the PNW. This doesn’t always happen because that cold dome may weaken or drop too far east to impact the PNW; however, we simply don’t get an Arctic Blast without a 1040+mb Yukon/Interior Canada Dome forming first. Anyway, for now, we forecast the potential for colder weather to begin arriving late Thu night into Fri. Fraser Outflow will develop first, then, as the cold air mass descents over eastern WA & ID, cold air will rush west out of the Columbia River Gorge. A familiar pattern. There will not be mid-level moisture associated with the leading edge of the cold front, so snow is not a real issue at this time. It will be chilly, but dry, next weekend, Nov 19,20. Temps in the 20s at night; 30s to 40s for daytime highs. Sunny. Strong winds over southern OR & northern CA on Saturday.

For the week of Thanksgiving: a short-shot of surface snow or snow/rain mix before all rain is possible on Tue Nov 22 for NW WA only, as a warmer, WET pattern transitions into the PNW. Depending on which model scenario plays out, for a day or two, most of the precip could be limited to western WA, maybe clipping NW OR from Salem north, before the whole region gets dripping wet as the holiday period progresses. Or, it may simply be wet everywhere. The storms charting for the holiday period are likely to be quite wet and windy. Normal for late November.

Post-Thanksgiving week: temperatures are likely to cool down a bit, as storms moving in from the west-to-northwest will have lots of cold air support. Great mountain snow period.

“When at a loss for the right word to say - try silence."

-Rufus

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Going Dry

Posted by Rufus La Lone on November 07, 2022

Monday November 7

Soon, oh so soon, those political commercials and direct mail flyers will come to an end. So, too, will the current wet cycle. Let’s take a peek ahead.

Colder air continues to slowly work into the PNW. Heavy showers today will begin to diminish - from north to south - over the next 36 hours. Clearing & subfreezing overnight lows (20s) are on tap for much of this week. Gusty E-to-NE winds will howl out of the Fraser Gap and Columbia Gorge, at times, the next few days, sending that cold air into western valleys. Snow over the coast range and Cascades will also wind down soon. Several areas in the Willamette Valley last evening (Sunday) had moderate snow showers, enough to whiten lawns, cars & roofs. Early, indeed.

Frosty mornings and drier conditions will predominate the weather after Wed. The chance for showers and/or snow showers late week has faded off the charts. Therefore, we forecast dry and slowly moderating afternoon temperatures through the coming weekend. The east wind should weaken by Sunday, so morning fog possible in the usual places. For California Patrons: expect colder, wet weather moving in from the north. Frosts possible in the Sacramento Valley later this week, if the infamous valley fog doesn’t form.

The week of Nov 14-18 looks DRY, with on/off east winds out of the Fraser & Columbia Gaps (definitely not as strong as this week). Again, the cold air mass will moderate a bit, although models do show a continual ‘influence’ of colder air from interior Canada holding eastern basin temps rather chilly. Normal.

Currently, a classic, stormy period may return again during the weekend before Thanksgiving, yielding to a mix of rain & dry days during the holiday week of Nov 21-25. Probably rather stormy on Thanksgiving Day. You know this will change some; nevertheless, we’ll throw out a forecast to get the ball rolling.

“Nothing makes your past so wicked as running for a political office."

-Rufus

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Winter-like Pattern

Posted by Rufus La Lone on November 04, 2022

Friday November 4

Are you ready? Hold your warm Mug tightly. A winter pattern is about to arrive, as is heavy rainfall & strong winds.

Today through early Saturday expect rain to be steady & heavy. While pinpointing the exact area the ‘jet stream’ will focus on may be challenging, the powerful mid-level winds will trigger major rainfall totals for a large swath of the PNW west of the Cascades. Initially, the freezing level will also be high (~7,000 ft), which means much of that moisture early on in this event will NOT be held up in the mountains as snow. Streams/Rivers will rise rapidly. Localized flooding will be an issue. Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches/warnings. Furthermore, WIND today and this evening will be strong enough to topple trees or break limbs (many still holding ’sails’ - leaves), so power issues are probable. A short break in the action is on tap for late Saturday, but by Sunday, another WET and COLDER system will drape over the PNW, adding to high water issues.

COLD. As the Sunday storm front passes, the coldest air of the season will flow in behind. This will be enforced by a Yukon High pressure dome (modeled in the 1045-1050 mb range) which will shift south, setting up STRONG WINDS out of the Fraser River Gap first, then down the Columbia Gorge early next week. Spokane will also experience powerful winds Mon & Tue. Temperatures will be cold enough for SNOW down to very low elevations, if not the valley floor, if there is moisture in the area. For now, the models track most of the moisture south into California following the Sunday front. However, moisture spinning northeast from the Sunday Low (that will position itself just off the coast of southern OR), may present snow/rain mixed at the surface under showers that will form over western OR; accumulations not expected below 1,000 ft., as the ground will be rather warm. That said, we will experience overnight subfreezing temperatures, esp in wind sheltered areas, once the air dry down on Tue. Expect mid-20s overnight Tue & Wed, Nov 8,9. HARD FROST.

The east to NE winds should diminish by Wed afternoon for all areas. Temperatures will slowly moderate; fog may form late week. Right now, the models are holding any moisture from another storm well off the coast for a few days. That means the Friday threat for freezing rain in the Columbia Gorge is low. Should the system track closer to OR, as was projected a couple days ago, frozen precip would be an issue.

The weekend of Nov 12,13 is trending relatively dry, with an east-to-NE wind picking up just a bit, limiting fog formation. The dry pattern may hold through Wed Nov 16, before systems slowly work their way closer & closer to the PNW from the west as the week ends. Stormy conditions may return after Thu Nov 17.

Overall, an early winter-like pattern is developing for the PNW. We always monitor High pressure over the Yukon area as a precursor to cold snaps in the region. The “Yukon Dome” expected next week is quite early. If not already done, winterize irrigation/plumbing systems before Tue. The short break late Sat may give you a muddy chance.

A quip from the ’Net: “My new SUV has a button that says, ‘Rear Wiper’. I’m afraid to push it."

-Rufus

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