Record Spring SNOW falling in many west side locations this morning.  Relief from the chilly pattern remains several days away.  Mug up.

 

Cold, damp pattern will hold through much of this week.  Another weak, cold Low will drop in later tomorrow, with more low elevation snow and rain/snow mixed at the surface action.  The chance for a frost has shifted to Thu or Fri morning, only because cloud cover should keep temps just above freezing.  Mountain, coast range and foothill snow showers will continue on & off until the weekend.

 

By Good Friday, a warm front will swing inland south of Brookings OR, pushing warmer temperatures north into the Willamette Valley, SW WA by Saturday.  Rain/showers possible from Salem south, with a slight chance for showers around Portland later Saturday.  Most of WA and southern BC should stay dry through the weekend.  Easter also looks dry for OR, although a bit chilly for Sunrise Services.

 

Monday after Easter may be a transition day before a warm rain arrives late day or evening.  Wet Tue Apr 19.  Now, for those looking for another classic sunny & warm Spring afternoon — Wed & Thu Apr 20,21 NEXT week may hit the spot.  Take advantage, because plenty of RAIN and blustery conditions return by Earth Day, Fri Apr 22nd.  That weekend on through Tue Apr 27 is charting WET.  Good book time.

 

 

 

Very out-of-the-norm weather ahead for the next week.  Morning beverages should be hot.  What’s up?

 

The wonderful BBQ Day (Thu Apr 7) has now passed.  It will be awhile before that kind of day returns.  A relatively dry, but quite cold air mass, is now moving into the PNW.  Temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front.  There will be precip falling throughout the weekend, most of which will fall as SNOW down to 500-1,000 ft by later tomorrow.  The ground is warm, so lingering snow will not be likely.  Don’t be surprised to see a mix of rain/snow at your location.  It is extremely rare to have this type of cold pattern in April.  For portions of western OR, the latest measurable snow (0.1 inch) for Portland was March 25, 1965; Eugene April 11, 1911 (Weagle, Nat’l Wx Service).  A ‘measurable’ amount of The White west side is less than 30% likely - per some model output - but there is an outside chance within the next 72 hrs.  Sip on.

 

Well below normal temperatures this weekend.  A weak system on Sat may tease some rain/snow mixed at the surface, but the big question will be the track of a second potential Low moving onshore late Sunday/early Monday.  This storm may not only be cold enough for some snow/rain at the surface, but also become a relatively strong WIND PRODUCER, depending on which wx model solution verifies.  If the Low tracks onshore north of OR, wind will be strong across western OR; if it tracks farther south, less wind, but colder air impact for chance of snow showers down to 500 ft, or lower at times.  Patrons living in the foothills, coast range area or along the slopes of the Cascades above 500-1,000 ft may receive a few inches of snow.  

 

Next week: the unseasonable cold pattern holds, with variable low snow levels and showers on through Wed.  If the sky clears in your location, FROST will be a concern as early development on fruit crops will be quite vulnerable, esp Wed and Thu mornings.  Let’s hope there’s cloud cover.  (The frost we forecast several days ago for the Sacramento Valley area, CA did reportedly have a negative impact on almonds, tree fruits and, in some cases, specific grape varieties.) 

 

Unfortunately, Good Friday next week is also Tax Day in the US, with the chance for another cold front from the NW to arrive.  We’ll see.  Models do suggest that it may warm up and dry out a bit for Easter Sunday.  The week after Easter continues to chart as damp and unseasonably chilly.   

 

Bottom line: below normal temperatures are charting for much of the next 2 weeks.  Precipitation should trend as normal.  The Cascades will have significant additions to the 2022 snowpack.

 

 

 

Mark Thursday.  Refill your Mug to find out why.

 

Stormy Monday ahead, with a slow return to mild Spring weather by Wed.  Thunderstorms & intense showers will rule today and this evening.  Windy, too.  A deep - for April - Low (~976 mb) that generated our current storm is moving onshore just north of Vancouver Island.  As such, the winds will continue to be gusty today.  The air aloft is cold, so any sunshine that peaks through will cause ‘lift’ and set off strong isolated showers or thunderstorms.  In the PNW under these conditions, small tornadoes and/or powerful isolated wind gusts occur   Stay alert if outdoors.  Things will calm down as Tue gets underway, yielding a pleasant couple of days midweek.  In fact, Thursday Apr 7 could present western locations with the warmest day of the year, thus far.  Willamette Valley may top 70-75 F.  First Spring BBQ time.

 

This Thu night, a weak system will clip the far NW corner of WA / Vancouver Is. - showers.  That colder air will begin to shuttle into the rest of the PNW as Palm Sunday weekend gets underway.   Onshore breeze will kick-up notably, and temps will drop.  Jackets will be needed by Palm Sunday, with snow level dropping below the passes.  Fortunately, there will not be much moisture, so mountain travelers will get along fine.  If the sky clears in your location, FROST is possible Monday morning, Apr 11.  

 

Split outlook for Mon-Wed Apr 11-13.  One scenario -  another weak, but warmer disturbance may clip the PNW late Tue night into Wed; scattered showers / cloudiness likely, with mild, dry conditions to end the week; the other scenario calls for a cold storm to form and push onshore later on Monday, setting up a breezy and chilly Tue/Wed, with continued damp wx through Tax Day.  Coin flip accuracy.

 

Easter Weekend.  Well, the threat of more cold conditions this Easter has been trending off the charts; so, maybe it was an April Fool’s joke after all?  Seriously, a relatively dry & fairly mild weekend is what model solutions present of late.  However, best to plan on some rainfall or showers for now, as that remains the prevailing solution.  We’ll have time to find consistency for what the weather will be like on Easter.  Patience.

 

 

 

Winter weather pattern may return later the month.  Let’s hope the models are joking.  Better Mug up, Patron.

 

Mild Friday ahead, with a few clouds & maybe a shower or two, esp north of Portland.  Saturday also trending mild and generally dry.  The weak front passing today will sweep the stage for the upcoming big show.  STORMY conditions will begin on Sunday.  First to arrive will be a shot of rain, moving in from the northwest, so WA & Vancouver Is. first, then OR as the day progresses.  By nightfall, a powerful storm will begin to push into the PNW.  This one will pack quite a blow, literally.  WIND will increase, esp along the coast & up in the mountains Sunday night into Monday.  Western valleys will also turn quite windy.  May be good to secure outdoor furniture.  RAIN will be heavy.  SNOW at pass level and higher will measure 1+ to 2+ FEET during this event, which combined with strong winds, will make any travel over the Cascades risky.  If you must go, please carry winter gear and emergency supplies in your vehicle.

 

Pressure differences between Brookings OR and north Vancouver Island are charting to be quite large for April, hence the wind issue.  It will be windy all day Monday, as a 984 mb Low center passes just north of Vancouver Is.  Wind will let up overnight Monday, so too, the precip, as rain turns to showers (which could be intense, given the cold air on the back side of this strong April storm).  

 

Wednesday next week should be mostly dry, warmer.  On Thu, a weak system may bring clouds and showers over NW WA; dry for the rest of the PNW on into Palm Sunday weekend.  Here’s where the long-range forecast is trending winter-like.  A series of very COLD systems are modeled to push out of the Gulf of Alaska into the PNW.  Air over the Gulf will turn winter-cold.  Late Palm Sunday (the 10th), the first storm will arrive, with cold air (snow at low elevations, maybe even mixing to the surface, WINDY as the charted Low moves onshore around Astoria.  Mountain & coast range snow event is probable.  Rain & wind pick back up again on Tue Apr 12 and hold through the 13th.  Again, snow measured by the foot is possible at pass level.  The air mass will remain quite cold for April, so snow mixing down to coast range, or even to 500-800 ft is possible. Cold & damp Wed - Fri Apr 13-15.  More cold rain, mountain snow charting for the middle week of April - Easter.

 

OK.  So, is the above an April Fool’s Day forecast?  No, this pattern has been hinted at by the long-range charts for several days now.  Whether or not the pattern verifies is the uncertainty.  We have experienced winter-like weather during Easter season in the past.  We’ll be monitoring this closely in the week ahead.

 

 

 

Wrapping up the month with cloudiness and hope for a pleasant April.  Let’s ponder the options.

 

Clouds & showers (moving north from a California Low pressure system) will slowly yield to warmer sunshine in many PNW areas today.  Heavy rain along the OR/ID border will slowly move NE.  Additional showers / thunderstorms possible in the southern quadrant of OR, as well.

 

This week: expect Tue to be the warmest and driest day of the week, with mild temps & an 'easy breeze'.  A weak, but rather chilly, system will edge into the PNW on Wed, north-to-south, so clouds will return, as will the chance for precipitation, most of which will fall north of Portland.  The storm is not modeled to produce a lot of rain, merely enough to dampen roads and refresh early Spring flowers.  April Fool’s Day will be mostly dry & cool.  The far corner of NW WA & Vancouver Island could get another splash or two of rain on Friday; most of us should remain mild & dry.  

 

The weekend ahead: we had hoped that model solutions for an amazingly warm & dry weekend would verify.  Well, that’s gone.  While not a total wash-out, charts now indicate on/off period of showers, with sun breaks.  Temperatures should remain on the mild side, overall.  All that will set the stage for a wet start to the week of Apr 4-8.  

 

Sunday night through Tue Apr 4, looks damp & cool, esp from Portland/Salem north.  A high pressure ridge, currently centered well offshore of OR will slowly build NE, turning off the cool showers and setting up a pleasant 2nd half to next week.  It will get quite WINDY across southern OR, both sides of the mountains; northern CA, too.  That wind will shift northeasterly by late Thu evening, which will bring on WARM temperatures in western OR on Fri.  That warmth will also nudge north over the Puget Sound by later Fri the 8th.  All of areas west side will experience a pleasant Saturday, Apr 9.  (Yes, we recognize it is only a long-range prog.)  A large Low pressure trough is charting to fill the Gulf of Alaska as the weekend of Apr 9 & Palm Sunday.  This, if verified, will set up a rather cold, WET period Apr 11-14.  As a matter of note: model solutions suggest a cold Low off the coast of NW WA, which could open the door for a pre-Easter cold snap.  Ponder Point, for now.