The Weather Cafe ® by Rufus

Written by Rufus La Lone since 1994.

Waiting

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday September 26
 
The long dry spell across the PNW will continue a bit longer.  We await the transition to the fall rains.  Here’s the latest update in that regard.
 
Wet pavement time this week will likely be overnight Tue through Wed evening, but the total precipitation, but only a tenth to a quarter of an inch is expected on the west side; none to the east except far N Idaho.  Hence, the 'wet pavement’ call, not an irrigating level of rain.  The next period of notable rain is modeled to arrive 12 days from now - the weekend of Oct 8,9.  
 
Temperatures will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s throughout the next several days, aside from mid-week.  It will be cooler during the 'transition day' of Fri Oct 7.
 
A broad change in the upper-level wind pattern is expected to develop by Fri Oct 7, opening the door for Pacific storms to finally drape across the PNW, bringing the sound of rainfall back.  The weekend of Oct 8,9 looks wet, esp late Sat night through Sunday.  Rain/showers will also be in play as the following week gets underway.  We are cautious about this forecast, since there seems to be so many ‘false starts’ on the charts of late.   Still, wetting rains will return at some point; let’s hope for Sat Oct 8.  Cumulative precip between now and Oct 12 should be around 1.5-2 inches, nearly all of which will fall Oct 8-12.
 
Hurricane IAN will be the big national story this week, as it will likely impact western FL.  Landfall location for IAN will depend, to a large degree, on just where a High pressure dome moving into the upper Midwest positions itself by the time IAN approaches western FL.  This storm will be a very powerful hurricane.  We hope people heed the warnings and prepare while time is on their side.   
 
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THANK YOU Patrons, for the generous donations to the Walk to End Alzheimer’s on the 24th.  The Weather Café®️was recognized as the top fundraiser for the Mid-Willamette Valley.  Our total was $4,445!  This speak well of our effort to help find solutions to this horrible disease, and to provide support for patients.  Again, a warm Thanks.
 
 
Rufus & Paula La Lone
 
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-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Rain on the Far Horizon

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday September 23
 
Lots to cover today, so let’s start with a full Mug.  Ready?
 
Dry pattern across the PNW continues, with a cool ‘frontal boundary’ bringing in some cloudiness and maybe a shower over the far NW corner of WA & Vancouver Island today.  This will clear out as the weekend gets going.  High pressure will build in for a WARM weekend, esp by Sunday.  That ridge will hold into next week, so expect plenty of sunshine and WARM temperatures.  Yes, 90s are possible for portions of OR and southern WA, 80s in portions of the Puget Sound.  
 
Middle of next week: the current atmospheric pattern may begin shift on Wed the 28th.  We can expect a weak front to bring some precipitation mainly from north of Portland into BC.  There is a chance that this system will fizzle out and not be much of a factor.  Either way, it will cool off to a day or two.  By Friday, we expect that dry ridge of High pressure to again rebuild, ushering in another round of warm days.  
 
There is a Low that should track south off the PNW coast and have impact in CA for the first weekend of October.  Wrap-around moisture could move into southern OR for showers and/or thunderstorms on Sunday, and expand northward into WA by Monday the 3rd. 
 
Indications are for a series of systems to finally begin dotting the PNW will rainfall as that first week of October progresses.   The Oct 8,9 weekend looks WET, with much cooler temperatures arriving.  Fall.  Dare we believe?
 
????Topical Tropical: hurricane FIONA will strike Nova Scotia/Newfoundland Canada early Saturday with a ferocious blow - probably of historic damaging proportions.  The name GASTON was assigned to another Atlantic storm well out to sea; therefore, the tropical system that will enter the Gulf of Mexico later this week could be named HERMINE (or IAN, depending on activity just west of Africa).  This storm will be the first major hurricane to strike the US this season.  Projected landfall location of this likely Cat 3 storm has been quite variable, as expected.  The majority of model solutions target the west coast of FL, somewhere from the panhandle down to Tampa area.  We are keeping Patrons in FL well informed ahead of the crazy media blitz that will crank up this week.
 
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"Last Call”.  Tomorrow, your host will represent The Weather Café®️as a team member of the Mennonite Village retirement community here in Albany.  Café Patron donations are now at the $3,690 mark.  Let’s beat our goal of $4,000, shall we?.  Tomorrow's Mid-Valley's Walk to End Alzheimer’s event will be in Corvallis.  
Please consider a donation - here’s the link.  Thank you!!
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“When you help a person up the hill, you find yourself closer to the top."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Calm

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday September 19
 
Generally, PNW wx for the next couple of weeks should remain calm, with marginal, spotty precipitation.  Here’s the latest.
 
Mild temperatures this week across the region, with a 'parked Low’ spinning off the coast of northern CA that may send a few showers over southern OR & northern CA.  WINDS will kick-up in the far eastern zones, esp Idaho, as a chilly High pressure dome drops into the U.S. heartland, while the ‘parked Low shifts over ID to bring on rain there.  Patrons in western valleys will enjoy 70s with plenty of afternoon sunshine through Thursday.
 
On Fri Sep 23, a weak disturbance could bring increasing clouds & a slight chance for a shower from roughly Chehalis north.  All that clears out by the coming weekend.  Sunshine & mild temps should continue for an extended period. Where is the rain???
 
Similar to the current pattern, models track a Low pressure trough off the PNW coast as it moves south during that last week of Sep.  Early on this system was to bring us much needed rainfall.  Yeah, right.  Instead, temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s are possible during the last few days of September.  
 
The first weekend of October is trending WET, as that new ‘parked Low’ off the coast of CA moves up and over the PNW, hopefully.  A dry ridge of High pressure again reforms to block additional storms from the region from Oct 3 through the 6th, at least.  Oh my.  
 
????Topical Tropical: hurricane FIONA will strengthen as it continues to move northward, well off the east coast of the US.  Current projections target Newfoundland as the likely landfall point.  In addition, a new hurricane may develop during the last week of September; this one, should it verify, will be named GASTON and quite possibly threaten FL as October gets underway.  Stay tuned.
 
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Great effort, Patrons ! — we are at the $2,660 mark for the Walk to End Alzheimer’s fundraiser this year.  Thank you!  The Walk is this Saturday, the 24th.  Here’s the link:
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“An unusual amount of common sense is sometimes called wisdom."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Too Dry

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday September 16
 
Well, the long-range outlook continues to frustrate ‘rain-seekers’.  Let’s take a peek.
 
A Low pressure trough will move south off the coast this weekend.  Problem is, the Low will track too far west to bring steady rain over OR/WA.  We will not rule out a shower here & there later Saturday evening into Sunday morning primarily Salem south.   Coastal areas, esp south of Coos Bay, could be in for higher amounts of precip.  That Low is charting to track closer to the Bay Area of CA early next week to become relatively stationary as it ‘fills in’ and dissipates.  If that happens, expect some precipitation to spin northward into southern OR and/or along the Cascades.  
 
We are going with DRY & mild-to-warm conditions to continue through next week.  Sunshine should prevail, with temperatures climbing into the high 70s to low 80s, at times.  Overnight lows may be on the chilly side, though.  Windy in the far eastern WA & ID region Tue & Wed.  A weak system may track over western WA on Friday, but no rain is expected, as this will likely remain a Puget Sound cloud event, with cooler temps.  Mild in OR.
 
Unfortunately for rain-seekers, the weekend of Sep 24,25 is trending DRY as any Low pressure trough that develops should track south well offshore.  Temps will be mild (70s mostly).  The following week (Sep 26-30) is also trending DRY & mild, as the rain-bands, if you will, should remain too far west over the Pacific to provide our region much needed precipitation.  Fall wine & concord grape harvest should begin with favorable conditions.  No frost foreseen.  By Thu or Fri Sep 29, 30, the Low pressure trough will move south west of the Bay Area (sound familiar?) keeping the PNW dry until the first weekend of October.
 
Yes, now the wx models suggest rain could arrive by the Oct 1,2 weekend.  We’ll see.
 
???? Topical Tropical: FIONA is currently a tropical storm (TS) and moving towards the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands.  By the time FIONA arrives northwest of Hispaniola, it will deepen to potentially cause issues with the Bahamas.  Right now, we see the storm becoming a strong hurricane, but, as with the others this season, it will drift NW and then NE over the Atlantic to remain a ‘Fish Storm’.  FL and the eastern seaboard should be spared.  Stay tuned, though, as wx charts are so variable.
 
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The 2022 Walk to End Alzheimer’s is fast approaching.  Your host will walk on behalf of The Weather Café®️in Corvallis on the 24th.  Thus far, Patrons have donated a total $1,670.  Go ahead, place a few 'Mug-bucks' in the virtual donation jar on The WxCafé™️ counter (link below).  This is a worthy cause.  Thank you, Patron!
 
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“A man cannot be comfortable without his own approval.” -Mark Twain
 
Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Trending Cooler

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday September 12
 
Mild pattern ahead, which goes well with a morn’n java.
 
Pleasant weather for the week, if you enjoy cooler temps (60s - 70s) and a morning marine cloud deck that should clear by the afternoons.  Coastal locations may have drizzle, as well.  Wind should be gentle.  The pattern favors our hard-working firefighters.  Mid-level moisture will continue to stream to the NE setting off showers on the east side, on into ID.
 
The coming weekend is trending mixed.  That is, a chance for both showers & clearing because of a Low pressure trough that charts to move south along the OR coast.  Cooler weekend temps than the coming week, so find that sweater or sweatshirt.  It should not be a wash-out, just a definite fall feeling and wet pavement, at times.
 
That same Low will, interestingly, track over the Bay area of CA, before moving north again to become ’stationary’ right off the coast around Brookings.  The result?  A southernly flow of moisture that triggers mountain, and potentially valley thunderstorms - esp for OR - during the week of Sep 19-23.  Also, early that week, strong east winds may kick-up for a day or two.  Too early to confirm; we simply suggest the possibility.  
 
For the final weekend of September, models continue to go back-n-forth as to RAIN or mild-to-warm sunshine.  What’s happening is that the large-scale upper-level wind pattern may shift, ushering in a period of stormy fall weather.  A classic fall rain pattern for late Sep could begin that weekend, or shortly thereafter.  If that fails to verify, then the wx will continue dry for the PNW with mild-to-warm temperatures.  Keep your Mug handy.
 
“The wealth of experience is one possession that has not yet been taxed."
 
Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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