No extended dry period ahead.  Here’s the current outlook for the balance of April.

Pleasant, warm afternoon today, the 14th.  Change begins on Saturday.  The next wet system is lining up to drape across the PNW as the weekend progresses.  Vancouver Is & NW WA will be first to receive rain/showers on Saturday; the rest of the region will get clouds/rain on Sunday.  As noted, before the cold front, temps will be mild, enticing Spring to fight for its rightful place.  The weekend transition starts another frustrating round of wet, chilly days, that allow no time for soils to dry down.  Drat.

Mon, Tue, Wed next week will be chilly & damp.  Intense showers & possible thunderstorms with 'winter-cold' air aloft; breezy, at times, too.  Coat weather.  The mid-April cold front will also clip California, north of the Bay area.  Hopefully, by Thu Apr 20, the air mass will become more settled.  FROST probable throughout the PNW on Fri morning, Apr 21.

Earth Day weekend (22nd & 23rd) is trending dry & warm.  (Yeah right. When have we hoped that before??)  Rain returns on Mon & Tue Apr 24,25.  It could be dry & mild Wed on into the last weekend of April, excluding the NW corner of WA. & southern BC - which may be damp from a system to their north.

Spring is unfolding, despite the cold rains.  Birds are finding nesting material.  Flowers are coloring up.  Foliage is beginning to ‘pop’ on deciduous trees.  Smile on, Patron!  We’ll soon have those hot days to complain about.    

“Income-tax forms should be printed on Kleenex® because so many of us have to pay through the nose."

An unwanted turn in the long-range outlook has been presenting on wx model charts since our last report.  In ’times like these’, forecasting is something we’d rather avoid.  But, it is our call, so Mug up and dare to read on.

Rain will taper off a bit later today, however, it will remain wet with cooler air moving in behind the current slow moving front.  Showers & thunderstorms, with small hail, possible tomorrow, Tue.  Yes, snowflakes are possible down to rather low elevations for April.  A small, tight surface Low is charting to drop into NW OR around Astoria Tue night, so, OR Patrons, don’t be surprised with rather strong wind gusts for a few hours before daylight Wed.  Mid-week looks mostly dry, turning warmer by Fri.   The unwanted - ready?

The stretch of dry, WARM afternoons we have earnestly waited for is now disappearing off the charts.  Yikes.  The culprit is an upper-level Low - and associated, broad surface Low - will move from NW Siberia to cross the Bering Sea, before settling west of the Alaskan Panhandle by this coming weekend.  So what, you ask?  Well, the warmer, dry air mass to end this week may ‘yield’ to that Low by Sunday Apr 16.  RAIN will return Sunday afternoon, along with a colder, showery pattern to start the next week.   Temps late this week, and early in the weekend will likely be the warmest of the season.

Wed Apr 19 may be the driest day of NEXT week.  Another wet & warmer system is charting to move in from the west by Thu the 20th.  Late Fri and early Sat Apr 22 should be dry, but then a wet Sunday will follow.

Always hope for the best.  Long-time Patrons know that often model solutions return to earlier scenarios, so we hope that is the case this time.  Spring 2023 needs to show up for longer than a couple of days!

Will it relieve bad weather?  Extra Ketchup, please,

There is an end in sight - as fair weather, with plenty of sunshine & Spring warmth will be here soon.  In the meantime, LOTS of rain & rapid snow melt.  We have our hot java ready, you?  

Damp on this Good Friday, with moisture tapering off as nightfall begins.  Sat should be damp again, repeating the Good Fri pattern of rain, showers, then drying out late day.  Easter Morning should be dry in most of the PNW, although the far north corner (Vancouver Is & US border area) may already be under the influence of the next storm.  By Sunday afternoon, expect rain - heavy at times -  to move in from the north, as a very wet system SLOWLY moves across the region.  Temps will be in the 50s, even at higher elevations, so all the snow in coast ranges and lower foothills of the Cascades will melt quickly as the warm rain falls.  Patrons along the usual flood-prone creeks & streams should remain alert.  The Nat’l Wx Service does not foresee flooding, but localized issues require close monitoring, as soils everywhere are already saturated.  Overnight Sunday into Monday will continue quite wet.  The storm will have cold air support on the backside, so snow levels will drop again to pass levels by Monday night.  

Next week will present cooler air again Mon, Tue & Wed, with a Low slowly spinning its way south along the OR coast.  The Low could spawn WINDY conditions for Oregon coastal communities, and briefly crank up a brisk E to NE wind through the Gaps later on Tue to early Wed.  Showery Tue, drying Wed, with a weak system possible on Thu Apr 13.  Now, the Good News.

On the Way.  Models are centering on a decent stretch of DRY, mild-to-warm weather beginning Fri Apr 14 and running through most of Tue, Apr 18.  “Tax weekend” is likely to bring us temperatures in the mid-60 to lower 70s region wide, so get those 1040s down ahead of time to enjoy a Spring Weekend.  For now, models hint at brief downturn late Tue into early Wed, Apr 18,19 before another stretch of DRY returns to finish the week.  

Earth Day weekend - Apr 22,23 - is trending wet, but mild, with a system moving in from the west.  The bulk of the rainfall may be over OR.  It could dry out again afterward.

Overall, there is a trend towards a much drier, warmer Spring pattern for the second half of April.  Let’s hope this verifies.

Monday April 3

Oh dear, the long-range outlook is not looking favorable for those seeking warmth, sunshine, and the end to chilly temperatures.  Better get that hot java in hand before reading on.

Cold showers, with hail & occasional thunder remain in play through today and Tue, although the activity should diminish a bit on Tue.  Wednesday is looking a tad warmer, as a weak front begins to push onshore.  It may remain dry most of the day, with a steady rain holding off until late Thu Apr 6.   Thu will be mild in the temp department, although showers will become prevalent by nightfall.  Good Friday will be damp, but mild.

Easter Weekend.  Our much hoped for Easter ‘warm-up’ will not likely reach as high as we hoped, but it should be the warmest weekend thus far in 2023.  Saturday should be mostly dry, although do not rule out a stray shower, esp over southern OR.  Easter Sunday should warm, with temps topping out in the low-to-mid 60s depending on cloud cover from a new system moving into the region late Easter Day.  Please note that some solutions move damp weather in Easter Day.

Monday Apr 10 will start out damp, with temps beginning to track downward, yet again, as a cold front moves onshore.  Tue the 11th looks chilly with showers, some that may produce small hail.  Yep, the sign of cold air aloft for the millionth time this so called Spring.  Anyway, we could get a dry day on Wed Apr 12 and most of Thu the 13th.  More cold rain on the way for Fri Apr 14 on into ’tax weekend’.  In fact, a cold pattern similar to what we have experienced multiple times, will again return on the 14th, with the return of cold rain, showers, possible thunderstorms and low elevation snow across the PNW.  A broad cold pool of air will drop south along the PNW coast for a few days, setting up a period of moderate rain west of the Cascades and heavy rain into California again.  

In summary, over the next 2 weeks, the weather pattern is not looking ‘farm-favorable'.  We do NOT see an extended period of normal, mild spring temperatures with enough sunshine to truly dry down PNW soils for spring plantings.  Last year, Apr & May were quite chilly & damp.  As the region exits the third consecutive La Niña influenced winter, we can only hope for an extended dry pattern soon to get farm/garden work going.  

Good & Bad weather is on the way.  Mug up!

The Bad.  Wet system moving in today from the north as this is being written.  Moderate rainfall & colder temps post frontal passage.  Snow in the mountains will be heavy, so traveling east or south into CA will require traction devices (some of you had fun with ’tracking’ devices last time!).  Later on Sat, don’t be surprised to see hail or snow/rain mixed at lower elevations, as the air aloft will be cold, setting up strong ‘lift’ whenever the sun peeks through.  Yep, another winter-like weekend.  Air will cool even more on Sunday, so those big, beautiful clouds will likely release more hail & even rumble at times.   The cold front will sweep into CA beginning Sunday evening.  This same cold front will further develop into a major Spring storm as it rolls across the US; presenting strong winds, snow, rain and possible tornadoes 

Next week will start with more of the cold temps, showers - some with hail - and snow below the passes.  Charts indicate a weak damp system swinging past on Good Friday Apr 7, then the GOOD will happen.  Several forecasts ago, models suggested a wonderful, Spring Easter weekend, which was subsequently pushed off the charts.  Well, as we have seen countless times before, the weather will ‘revert’ back to early charting, and wham, a great Easter weekend is now probable.  WARM afternoons, esp on Easter Sunday.  Likely temps will run into the 60s, upper 50s in the far north corner of the PNW.  

The Bad Again.  Moisture returns over Vancouver Island and NW WA later on Monday, then expanding over OR sometime Tue & Wed Apr 11,12.  It will be a warm rain to start, then turn cold again on Thu the 13th.  The cold trough will be rather large and slow to move out (similar to last week), so we can expect chilly showers (maybe with hail again), mountain snow, and ‘put on a jacket’ temps through the weekend of Apr 15,16.  Please note: often when a High pressure ridge sets up over the west coast (think warm, dry in this case), it is slow to break down or move out.  That could happen after our wonderful Easter Sunday, yielding another day or two of truly Spring comfort.  We’ll wait and see.

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