Normal May pattern ahead, with a mix of mild, dry days and cool, wet days.  Let’s prognosticate on the first half of May.  Grab your Mug.

The weather this week will be ‘orchestrated' by a Low pressure system working south along the PNW coast.  As it drifts south off the CA coast, mid-level moisture will train northward, primarily east of the Cascades, including ID.  Air flow will ‘lift’ up against the eastern slopes of the Cascades, setting off showers & thunderstorms.  Temps will be mild all week, with slightly warmer days late week.  Some of those ‘big storm cells’ forming along the Cascades will drift westward over west side locations.  Late week, the frequency of such drift is likely to increase, esp over NW WA.  Patrons west side may have a decent view of Cascade lightening in the evenings, if not right overhead.  Be safe.

The coming weekend continues to trend to be damp early, turning cooler & a little less wet on Sunday.  A weak system moving in from the Pacific will bring cooler, wet weather later on Mon May 8 and part of Tue.  Dry Wed May 10.  This will set up the potential for a longer period of STORMY May weather, if models verify.  

For 10 days, models suggested dry, mild weather by the weekend of May 13-14, which could still happen by the way, as model projections often revert to earlier solutions.  Back to the forecast:  wet Thu & Fri, May 11,12, with a Low centered over Astoria.  A much stronger storm hits the PNW on Sat & Sunday the 13th & 14th, with drenching rain & notable wind for May.  Yeah, unusual system, but it’s far too out on the timeline to bake into the forecast.  

The week of May 15-19 looks showery to start, dry and rapidly warming by Wed & Thu under a fast-forming ridge of High pressure.  Temps pop back into the 70s to low 80s for a couple of days.  Rain may be possible to end that week.  We’ll see.

(At times, forecasting makes one deficient in B1.) 

April ends this weekend.  Will our long-awaited warm wx end?  Refill that Mug.

The warmest days of the year, thus far, have arrived.  While it will cool down a bit on Sunday, this weekend should be decent, esp as compared to the past several.  A Low pressure ‘cell’ will spin off the PNW coast, working its way to bringing rain/showers to just about all of California next week.  As it draws near to the OR coast, expect a rather strong east wind in the Columbia Gorge on Sunday.  We do not see a lot of moisture making landfall over the PNW from that Low, just a cool down and some cloudiness.  The southerly flow will increase by late Sunday, as that Low drifts west of CA by Monday.  Moisture will train north on that southerly flow aloft, setting off showers & potential thunderstorms across southern OR on east.  

A new month starts a new week.  Monday the 1st of May will be mild & partly cloudy, as the Low hits CA.  Tue & Wed May 2,3 will be dry & mild, with temps treading seasonal for May.  Our next chance for showers arrives in 6 days - next Thu & Fri- as a Low approaches the coast, then turns north along the coast of BC.  No landfall, but temps will be cooler as the Low moves north.  

Models have been a bit inconsistent on solutions for the first weekend of May.  Overall though, the trend has been for a dry Saturday, then turning rather humid & damp as a new Low off CA coast spins moisture north over the PNW.  The Low will be stronger than this weekend, so expect showers over a wider area, including WA, along with a higher chance for thunderstorms - that will drift west over the Cascades to bring the potential for boomers west side on Sunday.   Cooler weather returns.

Monday the 8th brings a cold front, with wind & rain, to the entire PNW.  Tue will be on/off showers, as another system barrels in from the west for a wet Wed May 10.  A very broad trough of Low pressure will ‘fill’ the Gulf of Alaska mid-week, opening the door for a warm ridge of High pressure to reform over the west coast.  Yeah, another shot of warmer weather for the PNW starting Thu and lasting into the weekend of May 13,14.  Showers over the eastern basins of the PNW are possible late Sat evening on into Sunday.  Dry west side.

All the above can shift around a bit, however, we are entering a normal stretch of May weather, meaning a few damp days, with mild-to-warm days of sunshine spaced in between.  Temperatures will be favorable for crop development and smiles.

As the tag line suggests, a long stretch of dry, Spring weather has finally arrived.  The rest of this week will reveal plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures.  By Fri, iced tea may be selected.

Pacific storms are a thing of the past, at least for several days.  The end of this week, and the weekend, will be the warmest of the ’set’ - with afternoon highs topping in the 80s in many locations; 70s along the shores.  On Sunday, and to start next week, the High pressure ridge will center to our west, off the coast, setting up an onshore flow of marine air.  Expect a strong WEST WIND in the Columbia Gorge.   It will be a bit windy down the Willamette Valley & southern OR, as well, which will help dry-down soils.  

On Tue May 2, a weak surface Low may bring in cloudiness across the Puget Sound & northern ID, but right now, only a stray shower is expected.   Balance of the PNW should remain dry through most of the week.  

Retro Pattern: recent model solutions for Friday May 5 into the following weekend are bringing back a COLD Low pressure system from the NW, which if verified, would return the PNW to a damp, chilly pattern for the first weekend of May.  It does look dry again to start the following week (May 8-12), with more rain possible afterward.   We’ll see.  In the meantime, enjoy the first extended period of warmth and sunshine in 2023.

Third Cup ☕️☕️☕️.  A real treat in the night sky last night: a brilliant display of Northern Lights (aurora borealis) took place above the PNW and across much of the lower 48, including Arizona!.  If you haven’t already, search for the wonderful images folks captured from that event the night of April 23.  Our Sun has been quite active, with plenty of solar flares & coronal mass ejections, the past several months.  More will be forthcoming.  With the likelihood for clear skies at night over the next couple of weeks in the PNW, we may get another chance to witness the Northern Lights right here in the PNW. 

From the ’Net:  “Mother Nature apologizes for the late arrival of Spring.  Father Time was driving and refused to stop and ask for directions."

Finally, a long-range forecast that Patrons are gonna love.  Yes, we do believe the models ‘have something” this time around.  Curious?

Each day this weekend will still present the chance for a shower or two, although that may remain confined to north of Portland.  Temps will remain on the cooler side, but not as cold as last week with that pesky wind in our faces.  The next chance for showers arrives on Monday; however, latest model solutions are trending this threat ‘away’ - so we may simply have a mostly cloudy day to start the ‘best’ weather week of the season.  

Next week is looking absolutely awesome, relative to the seemingly endless ‘winter’ pattern the past two months.  High temps on Tues will tease the first 70 degree day in about 6 months for the north Willamette Valley.  Wednesday 70 to 70+ is quite probable.  Temps may be a tad cooler around the Puget Sound, but hold on - plenty of warmer weather has been trending on the model charts for several days now.  Expect each day after Monday next week to trend warmer.  The Puget Sound & SW BC will also warm considerably next Thu & Fri Apr 27,28.  Medford region could top 80 on Friday.  Eastern basins will also be warm.  This major pattern shift sets the PNW up for a splendid ‘exit weekend’ for April. 

That’s right.  Next weekend - the 29th & 30th - is likely to present the PNW with a continuation of the warmest temps this year, to date.  A Low pressure ‘cell’ is currently modeled to track SW of OR, adding a bit more humidity to the air mass, helping hold in the 'feeling of warmth' across the region.  Temperatures in 70s to lower 80s to wrap up a cold April.  Good news.  That same warmth is charting to CONTINUE into early May.

For the first week of May, we are seeing a dry, warm pattern holding throughout the PNW.  Early in the week, that Low mentioned above is likely to spin off some cloudiness & possible thunderstorms over the southern Cascades & SE OR, as well as showers along the coast of California to start, then across the Golden State to end the week.  Idaho will gets showers, too.   Again, the west side of OR & WA, and southern BC should remain dry & warm.  (Full disclosure: that Low may drift closer to the OR coast which could bring moisture farther north across the Willamette Valley and SW WA.  For now, though, we forecast dry.)

RAIN will be back with a wallop overnight May 5 on through the first weekend of May.  After that?  Well, it’s too early for the charts to indicate, however, the overall upper-atmosphere wind pattern has shifted from our colder, wet cycle to a seasonal norm for May.  We’re 'gonna love it', if that verifies.

“Happiness adds and multiplies as we divide it with others.”  

Adding sunshine to the forecast to help divide happiness, 

A winter-like pattern through mid-week, with milder conditions to end the week.  Dare we hope for a stretch of dry days?  Let’s see.

If this was January, we would be talking low snow levels again, as the cold air moving in will be similar to what yields west side snow or rain/snow mix at the surface.  For this week, the result will be intense showers, thunderstorms and HAIL, and snow down as low as 1,500 ft in places.  Come Thu, conditions so settle down and warm up as the weekend approaches.  Fri could be Spring-perfect.  We hope. 

The weekend ahead looks mild-to-warm for OR, SW WA and east side; partly-to-mostly cloudy for Puget Sound region, with an outside chance for showers.  Next week will start with a return to the ridiculously chilly pattern of late - cold air aloft & moisture.  We don’t anticipate it quite as wet as this week, as the coldest air will be farther north over the eastern Pacific.  Southern OR should remain mostly dry.  That said, models have been rather consistent on a WARM UP late week, with another super Spring Friday (28th).

The weekend of Apr 29,30 has not been modeled consistently, with solutions ranging from dry and warm, to wet and chilly.  The latest solutions hint of a very warm Saturday (temps in the 70s) with a wet Sunday to follow.  

May?  Well, early May is just coming into ‘view’ on the charts.  A warm ridge of High pressure may build in after the damp last day of April, opening the door for a stretch of classic sunny warm afternoons.