As March continues to click by, we are longingly searching for signs of Spring.  Is there positive or negative news on the weather horizon?  Our ☕️is ready.  Yours?

The “short” Weekend.  Showery pattern today, the 10th, will slowly diminish heading into Sat, because the current Low offshore will move to the NE, allowing clearing with improving conditions.  It will remain cool.  A secondary Low will form west of CA, keeping the Golden State quite wet.  For our Sunday, expect warmer temps and the start of another VERY WET couple of days.  Models target moderate-to-heavy rainfall for the PNW, along with a rising freezing level, which will increase the concern for rapid low-level snow melt & associated creek/stream/river flows.  Keep alert for Nat’ Wx Service announcements.  Again, regional temperatures will warm up a few degrees.  ‘Short' weekend because we lose the hour.

Next week, Mar 13-17.  As noted above, Mon & early Tue will be wet.  The damp pattern will shift south into CA (again!) late Tue, opening the door for a couple of days of DRY weather for the PNW on Wed the Ides of March and Thu.  Temps will be a tad cool; fog possible in the usual places.  St. Patrick’s Day - Fri - continues to trend wet, as another storm moves onshore.  Could be breezy, too.  

Weekend Mar 18,19.  Actually, the weather may not be too bad this weekend.  Partly cloudy, chance for a shower or two, but not a wash-out.  Temps seasonal.

Spring Equinox week, Mar 20-24.  Unfortunately, the first day of Spring, Mon, will see a return to a CHILLY WET pattern around the PNW, one that could last several days.  Drat.  The main focus of the upper-level winds will be shifting to CA, leaving the PNW on the cold side of the ‘jet’, with cold air pooled, yet again, over the Gulf of Alaska, setting up a series of cold fronts, with snow levels down below the passes around the PNW.  For our Agricultural Patrons, working the land and getting the soil ‘warm’ enough for plantings will be put off another week.  Double Drat.  On/off rain, showers and mountain snow all week and on into the last weekend of March. 

A note on California.  The amount of snow fall in the Sierra’s has been phenomenal!  Rainfall, too.  (Do a web search for images & details, if interested.)  The cold & wet “La Niña” winter of 2023 is news-worthy for the entire west coast.

Let’s just get right to it, shall we?  

For most of this week, the PNW will remain under the influence of that pesky Low offshore as it that literally circles round ’n round.  Sure, it will move north for a bit, then drop back into position, west of the coast, before finally moving onshore to end the work week.  That equates to an on/off shower pattern most of the week, although it should trend drier than the past couple of days.  Temps will remain cool.  By overnight Thu Mar 9, that Low will pull in moisture from the SW, so we can expect a steady RAIN to move onshore overnight Thu and last through Friday.  Cooler air returns behind the front, as it moves over ID will lower the freezing level, but not to the surface.  

This coming weekend has been trending dry again (good!), so we’ll forecast a decent sunny-after-some morning-fog weekend, although a tad on the cool side.  Time change, too.

By Sunday evening, the next Pacific storm will arrive, bringing plenty of steady rain from the Bay area in CA all the way north over southern BC through early Tue.  Snow around pass level.  

Models have been inconsistent for the Wed-Fri Mar 15-17 period.  The wind event on the Ides of March moved to St Patty’s Day, then dropped off the charts.  Let’s just say it will be quite WET, with the chance for rather windy conditions sometime in that period.  Hopefully, we can resolve the uncertainty by our next discussion on the 10th.

Looking long-term, what we hoped would be a decent Spring warm-up later in March is beginning to appear unlikely.  The overall pattern charting to shift back to below normal temps after the first day of Spring.  Keep the heavy coats handy.

Good morn’n, Patron ☕️.  We look ahead to warmer weather, sometime in 2027.  Seriously, here’s the latest long-range outlook.  Hint:  WET.

Staying cold.  The cold pattern will last at least another week.  Freezing level will remain low enough to spur rain/snow mix or plain snow at the surface just about everywhere west of the Cascades through next Wed.  The ‘best times & locations’ to have valley snow, will be overnight tonight into early Sat, similarly for Sunday morning, and again Tue night.  A relatively weak Fraser Gap outflow is possible, esp early next week; Columbia Gorge will have east winds when the surface Low roams west of Astoria.  

Speaking of that Low - a very interesting pattern is charting for 5 consecutive days.  A weak Pacific Low will drop in from the coast of BC this weekend (kicking off the snow tease), and then literally wander in a circle just off the west coast of OR / WA through Wed Mar 8.  Round & Round.  The result will be on/off cold showers, some with rain/snow mixed at the surface, and snow above 500-1,000 ft .  CHILLY days, for sure.  By Thu, the 9th, another, stronger Low will drop in from the NW, and set up an extended classic battle of cold/warm air masses over the west coast by Friday.

Going warmer.  On Friday next, the early stages of the atmospheric battle begins, as colder air from the north collides with warmer, sub-tropical air from the SW in a regional zone somewhere between central/southern OR and the Bay area of CA.  While WA & southern BC may not be completely dry, the bulk of the rain - sometimes heavy - will fall roughly from south of Salem into California.  Rainfall over the weekend of Mar 11,12 (time change) will be fairly minor, but as the week of the Ides of March unfolds, so too will the buckets of rain begin.  Models vary as to where the heaviest rain will fall (the fairly current term for this is ‘atmospheric river’) is primarily CA; Oregon will be slammed with rain, though, esp south of Salem.  As long term Patrons recall, these patterns often trigger strong wind fields; such will be the case.  We’ll narrow down where the wind will be strong as the event time nears (if models verify).  

Tucked into that extended stormy period, is a powerful storm on the Ides of March (Wed the 15th).  The system is currently charting to strike the San Francisco area with dangerous winds and flood-generating rainfall.  It will be a warm storm, as compared to the previous systems, so all the of unusually low elevation snowpacks will melt, contributing to flood issues.  Patrons beware- this system could easily track farther north.  Stay tuned.

Anyway, by late Thu Mar 16, a wet system will move north, aiming right at the PNW.  Rain will increase over all of OR and bring WA into the drip zone.  WINDY.  Note that CA will remain in a very wet pattern, so flooding concerns will only elevate heading into the weekend of Mar 18,19.

Broadly speaking, by the middle of March, the overall pattern should shift back to a seasonal norm, with rain and milder temperatures; low elevation snow around the PNW should end.  Spring flowers should begin to bud, along with Spring smiles and growers looking to work their land soon.

Overall, cooler than normal weather will remain in play for the next 10 days.  It will be on/off wet, as well.  Details with your morn’n Mug.

Cold air aloft, along with plenty of moisture, will drive rain, showers and low elevation snow (around 1,000 ft) into the PNW for much of the next several days.  Snow/rain mix at the surface is possible in a few locations, as is snow in NW WA, southern BC and the Columbia Gorge.  Wednesday may be the driest day of the week.  The coming weekend wx is looking mixed, with cold showers & mountain snow, with the bulk of storm energy drifting south into CA, continuing their low snow level events.  Sunday will be a bit drier than Sat.

Next week will start out relatively dry with some sun breaks & chilly.  Possible for Fraser Gap outflow to turn back on again later on Monday Mar 6, as a Low tracks south of the coast, and a high pressure ridge builds over the interior of BC.  Not super-cold.  Showers over the PNW will be in play all of next week, as no organized Pacific storm is on the charts.  FOG could develop in the usual locations.  Temps will be below normal all week.

The weekend of Mar 11,12 previously charted as mild and Spring-like.  Well, that is trending away, as a series of warm Pacific storms is now popping up on the charts for that weekend and beyond.  Steady rain likely Sat, with an increasing WIND field on Sunday.  The second storm will usher in warmer, southern flow air, but also produce WINDY conditions.  Daylight Savings Time begins that weekend, as well.

The 'middle week' of March is trending quite WET and stormy, both for the PNW & California.  We see the chance for colder air to return to our area by the weekend of Mar 18,19.  Not valley snow type, but a pattern in which thunderstorms and hail are probable. 

From the past: “People love goldfish because they like to see something with a mouth open that's not complaining."

When wx models miss the target by 50-100 miles, most people never notice.  BUT, if snow is involved, whoa, the error has large impact.  Such was the case these past few days, as the secondary Low we mentioned in our Monday discussion did form & stall farther north, which triggered more plenty of The White in many locations.  Winter is not done yet, so refill that morn’n beverage, and take in our ’spin’.

COLD, pleasant sunny day ahead, with Saturday starting out dry, as well.   Subfreezing temps are evident just about everywhere across the PNW.  Cold, heavy air now in place, so it will take a decent southerly flow to push it out of the area.  This is important because the next cold front is due to arrive Saturday afternoon over Vancouver Is & BC, then move south overnight Saturday.  All indications are for MORE SNOW at the surface in many locations, esp above 500 ft to start, then turn to mostly snow after the front passes.  Expect to see The White falling on Sunday.  There may be a small ‘pocket’ excluded from the surface snow south of Salem, but that could easily change, as we have just seen.

More moisture moving in from the west on Monday, Feb 27.  This system will be warmer at its core, but may not be strong enough to push all of the heavy, cold surface air out of the way as the moisture moves inland.  We’ll advise to be ready for another shot of low elevations snowfall west side as the Low approaches landfall around the mouth of the Columbia River.  FREEZING RAIN could also be a factor in areas farther away from the Columbia Gorge outflow zone.  With another Low approaching along a similar track, although a bit farther north, Tue Feb 28 presents a ‘repeat’ play to Monday’s system.  It is quite possible that enough warmer air aloft will mitigate frozen precip issues by Tue afternoon, except for elevations about 1,500 ft or so.  Temps will continue below normal.

Wed Mar 1st is trending DRY and on the chilly side.  Thu & Fri Mar 2,3 look damp, with surface rain and snow potentially as low as 1,000 ft, esp north of Portland.  The first weekend of March is trending dry and a tad warmer on Saturday, with another WET system expected by Sunday, as a Low tracks north offshore from the south.  Typical March storm.  Good news, is that we see a drying trend showing up on the charts for Tue Mar 7 through the following weekend of Mar 11,12.  That weekend is looking MILD and very Spring-like!