Good morn’n, Patron.  Warm day ahead, with cooler weather and even the possibility for June showers coming soon.  ☕️ Mug time.

Today will be the ‘hot’ one of the next several afternoons.  Most areas will top out in the 80s, with a 90+ possible around Medford / Roseburg.  Tue will be much cooler, as will the rest of the work week.  Westerly winds will really kick-up again Tue, esp in the Columbia Gorge.  Tue night will be quite chilly, so carry a jacket, if heading outdoors.  

This coming weekend is trending cool with increasing chance for precipitation moving in from the NW.  Vancouver Is & NW WA will be cloudy first on Sat, with increasing showers skirting down the WA & OR coast & inland by Sunday.  Keep those jackets & sweaters handy.  

Clearing a bit on Monday the 19th.  Dry, but on the cool side across the PNW for June 19-23. Temps will warm slowly during the week, before another chance for showers sets up by the last weekend of June 2023.  The pattern forming for that weekend suggests on/off showers primarily from Portland north into Canada.  Stay tuned, as this is uncertain for now.

We may see a return to dry, warm (80s) conditions during the final week of June.  

Grab a morn’n Mug and read on for the current extended forecast.

The Drips.  For certain areas west of the Cascades - essentially from Portland north into BC & the east side - the notable bit of precipitation, which started last night, will continue on/off into Sat.  Typically, our moisture comes from the west, however, this time a broad Low pressure trough is positioned east of the Cascades, spinning clouds & some rain from east-to-west.  We ‘saw’ this pattern in our last report, but at the time, models held the moisture east of the Cascades.  Other than wandering thunderstorms, it is rather unusual for steady rain to move in from the east-southeast.  However, given the stretch of dry wx of late, this short rain event can be appreciated.  Crop protection programs will be critical.

The Dry.  Dry weather will continue elsewhere around the PNW, and be back again for the areas noted above by Sunday.  We will have some warm days (upper 80s, maybe a 90+ in the usual hot spots) mixed in with pleasant afternoons because of onshore breezes moderating summer temps.   Overall, we can expect dry conditions to remain in play through at least Jun 23rd.  At that time, another shot of moisture from the SE may set off thunderstorms in the mountains, which could drift west.  Seasonal temperatures throughout the period.

🌀Topical Tropical.  On Jun 18th, A tropical depression / storm may move into the Gulf of Mexico from south of Cuba setting up the first potential hurricane threat for Gulf Coast states around Jun 21-23.  We’ll monitor closely, because we have Patrons & family in that region of the country.  

No big change in the weather is expected over the next 12 days.  We could stop there, but details always go well with your morn’n beverage.  

A few warm-to-hot days; a few mild, with onshore winds.  Still dry.  The onshore breeze will weaken by tomorrow, with temps responding by popping up into the high 80s to lower 90s across much of the PNW.  It will cool back down again beginning Wed, with the winds remaining weak through Sat, other than a notable westerly through the Columbia Gorge (to the delight of windsurfers).  East side showers/thunderstorms possible Fri & Sat.

The week of Jun 12-16 will remain generally dry, with notable onshore W-to-NW winds picking back up again (frustrating growers that need to apply crop protection treatments).  We should also note that Thu & early Fri may bring on a very weak, cool air Low over the Puget Sound, with increasing clouds and chance for a stray shower as far south as Portland.  More of a cloud event, not a rain pattern.  It will turn cooler.

The weekend of Jun 17,18 is trending dry, but cooler under the colder air aloft the moved in per the system mentioned above.  

Rain Watch: early yet, but we are seeing the potential for a wet June system that could arrive by Mon Jun 19.  What’s changing?  Well, the high pressure ridge that has stationed to our west is modeled to drift farther west, opening the door for cooler air, along with weak Low pressure troughs, to move down the Alaskan Panhandle & BC coast for a slightly cooler pattern around the region.  Very typical for June.  We’ll monitor closely, as this “dirty ridge” pattern could hold for a week or more, yielding a round or two of precipitation as the second half of June runs its course.  

“The world’s work is done every day by people who could have stayed in bed, but didn’t.”  Take on the week and return to your virtual WxCafé again on Friday, Mug in hand.

Long-term pattern remains stable, so expect more pleasant weather ahead.  Refill time.

While there will be a short heat-up early next week, overall conditions will remain mild with onshore flow holding afternoon temperatures in the comfort zone.  Tue next should be the warmest day of the next 10.  Upper 80s to low 90s - just about everywhere for just one day.  Cooling back into the lower 80s as next week ends.  A weak southerly flow aloft may kick-in by mid-week, opening the door for eastern Oregon & Cascade showers; still dry west side.

The weekend of Jun 10,11 is looking mild and dry, with weak onshore flow.  The marine push of air will increase as the following week (Jun 13-16) gets going, with the potential for showers throughout the PNW.  However, by Thu that week, the air mass will dry out again, with another round of WARMER temperatures (80s - 90s) probable to close out the week and set up a warm 3rd weekend of June 2023.

Bottom line: a fairly dry June is on tap, which follows a very dry May.  Water resources are not at risk, but prudent to manage conservatively, as a long, dry summer may be in the works.  Early yet, but a strong El Niño pattern is developing off the South American coast, ending a rare, 3 consecutive years of La Niña.  Get ready for the media to crank-up scary wx forecasts once this confirms.  Keep your sanity Mug handy.

Stop by again on Monday.  Thanks.

We lift our Mugs in honor of our Nation’s Fallen Heroes.  They are not forgotten. 

Plenty of sunshine continues to be the key attribute of the long-range wx outlook.  Current model projections keep a steady course of sun, onshore breezes - strong at times - and mild-to-warm afternoons through June 16.  There will be periods of thunderstorms / showers, mainly over the southern Cascades and portions to the east, esp June 8-11.

Onshore flow will increase notably Tue & Wed this week, and again this Sunday & Monday.  In between, we will experience warmer temps as the marine air influence wanes a few days.  Mid 80s late this week is possible; a bit cooler for Patrons around the Puget Sound; a similar ‘warm-up’ is likely June 6-8.

Enjoy the pleasant conditions - great for gardening, farming, graduations & outdoor activity.