Let’s get right to the forecast.  Refill and read on.

Pleasant weekend ahead, with temps in the low to mid 80s, slightly cooler around the sound.  Cooler pattern, with chance for drizzle or scattered showers starting early next week, but that cloudy/damp period will be limited to north of Chehalis.  Western OR will cool down a few degrees, with some morning marine clouds, while remaining dry.  Heat keeps going east side on into ID.

Warm Wed through Fri next week, as the ridge of high pressure begins to slowly rebuild over the PNW.  We’ll begin to get ‘toasty' starting Sunday July 30.  The ‘heat dome’ making news across the desert SW will expand west, then north, as August gets underway.  This cycle will likely present the hottest days, thus far, for 2023.  Triple digit readings are probable, at times, for large portions of the west, including Willamette Valley, SW WA and east side.  That said, the key takeaway is for a possible string of 90+ degree days that will make the dog days of summer uncomfortable, even with a northerly breeze.  Patrons in southern BC will warm up, too, but not to excessive levels (per current model runs).  Got a swimming site?

Concurrent with the heat-up will be increasing monsoonal storms across the desert SW, moving northward over mountains feeding the Colorado River, which will bring on rapid melt of the heavy snow pack, continuing positive ‘refilling’ of Lake Powell & Lake Mead.

☕️☕️☕️ Third Cup:  Dr Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Science Professor at Univ of Washington, posted a fine piece in his blog on July 20th titled “Is Global Warming Causing Massive Heatwaves?”  Worth the read at cliffmass.blogspot.com 

Bottom line: August will start out quite toasty, so enjoy the relatively pleasant summer temps as we journey through the last 11 days of July.

The overall pattern remains in 'summer mode', so cold beverages will be predominant around The WxCafé™️.

As is the case every summer in the PNW, the key factor in holding temperatures down from excessive heat levels is an onshore, marine influenced flow.  A classic example is how quickly the hot temps yesterday evening dropped here in Albany - from 94 to 74 in about 3 hours - as the onshore flow increased.  That’s what will aid in keeping the PNW from the massive “heat dome” that will continue to impact the western states.  We will not escape completely over the next 2-3 weeks, but at least there will be ‘cool down’ periods - like now - to help mitigate the extremes.  

While precise timing will vary, here’s the outlook per current charting by the wx models--

*July 17-21: mild, then warm-to-hot, before cooling a few degrees to warm for the weekend of July 22,23

 July 24-28: warm, with few days of hot possible late week into the weekend of July 29,30

 July 29-Aug: warm then turning HOT by mid-week.  Could be hottest of the summer, to date.  Triple digits possible.

Of course, the Puget Sound typically will run a few degrees cooler than western OR & southwest WA; eastern basins warmer.  

*For those Patrons that are new -> Mild is 65-79, Warm 80-89, Hot is 90-100s.  That’s our rough, informal definition around The WxCafé™️

Wx for the rest of July will present fairly normal temperatures, with a nominal chance for precip in the northern portions of the PNW.  Let’s take a look ahead.

Hot temps for today through the weekend.  To start next week, a weak Low will drop in from the NW, ushering in a welcomed onshore flow with cooler temps and cloudiness, esp over Vancouver Is & the northern Puget Sound region.  After a couple of cooler days, the warm ridge of high pressure will again build in over the PNW, for another round of warm-to-hot afternoon temperatures during the second half of next week.  Up & Down.

For the July 22,23 weekend we can expect the dry summer pattern to continue.  Temperatures may cool down again by 10 degrees or so as another Low moves into position to offer a cool onshore breeze, with clouds and a slight chance for showers, mainly in the far NW corner of the PNW.   That will keep the door open for a stronger Low to moves into the region as the last week of July 2023 gets underway.  A much higher chance for showers is possible that week, including over NW OR.  We’ll see.  As you might expect, temps will remain on the cooler side of summer for the July 24-26 period.  By Thu the 27th, high pressure may begin to rebuild, as will the afternoon temps.  The temperature coaster goes up & down.

The final weekend of July is trending HOT.  This could be the warmest period of the summer, thus far.  Triple digits possible in locations west of the Cascades (think southern OR, Willamette Valley, eastern side).   

Summer monsoon action in the desert SW will kick-up considerably as the month of July nears an end, 'cooling down’ the regional heat wave in that area.  However, the major heat wave will cross into southern CA late July, as well, setting off notable power issues for the Golden State.  News media will go bonkers over this, spreading blame everywhere.  

Monday July 10

Please excuse the missed update last Friday; we were assisting a dear friend with medical issues at OHSU for a couple of days.  So, let’s get to it this morning, shall we?  Mug time.

Cool onshore breeze will hold down temps for the first portion of this week, with a notable heat-up coming by the weekend.  Temps will climb into the upper 70s (Puget Sound region) to low 80s by Thu, with hotter temps due to arrive this weekend.  There will be an afternoon breeze each day - with Sunday & Monday looking quite windy in the afternoons, esp the Gorge.  Temps will top in the 90s in many locations.  Evapotranspiration will increase notably; water-up.

The week of July 17-21 is trending a tad cooler than the weekend, but it will be warmer than we have had the past few days.  Breezy afternoons continue, with temps in the 80s in most locations; warmer east side, per usual.

No rain on the charts, other than a couple weak systems that will bring cloudiness & showers to the Alaskan Panhandle and far north Vancouver Island (for those cruising).  Overall, a decent July pattern.

(Again, thanks for your understanding our absence last Friday as helping a friend took top priority.)

HOT pattern ahead for a couple days, then cooling into seasonal norms.  Enjoy the holiday, Patron.

The advertised ‘heat up’ is here, so expect temperatures to pop into the upper 90s, to near 100, in many areas on the 4th and 5th.  Afternoon breezes not be as strong as the past several days.  It will cool down a few degrees, as marine air begins to work inland starting overnight Wed in the southern Willamette Valley.  Cooler for the Puget Sound, too, esp by Fri.

A few clouds & a slight chance for stray showers may form over the Cascades, but other than that, there is no precipitation expected around the PNW until about July 12 & 13.  As noted, temps will cool down, mainly in the 70s to low 80s west side by the weekend and through early the week of July 10-14. 

A Low pressure trough is charting to push inland around Thu the 13th, which will introduce mid-summer showers to the PNW, esp north of Chehalis.  Another notch cooler for a few days.

We expect the next ‘heat up’ to arrive sometime during the week of July 17-21.  Too early to peg max temps, but it will be mid-summer, so temps in the 90s may tease out.  Stay tuned.

Enjoy the HOT & DRY Independence Day.  Stay fire safe.