This week will start out mild, with a 'Vancouver Clipper' ushering in clouds & showers over the far NW corner of the PNW later tonight and Tue.  For those that enjoy rather warm afternoons, that will be the state of the weather later this week, esp over western OR & SW WA.  Temperatures will begin to warm up on Thu, then tease out in the upper 80s to low 90s Fri, Sat and possibly Sunday, Sept 15-17.   An onshore flow will cool down the region later on Sunday, to set up the following week’s wx pattern.

Monday Sept 18 - Fri, Sept 22 is trending very similar to this week, with a weak front passing over Vancouver Island with clouds/showers on Sunday the 17th, then a short period of warmer temps near the end of the week, as the onshore flow weakens.  Some model runs suggest a closed Low developing off the northern CA coast on Fri, which often leads to thunderstorms along the Cascades that can drift over the Willamette Valley.  We’ll see.  

The main “change”, if the models are correct, is for a rainy 24-36 hrs to arrive during the weekend of Sept 23,24.  Not every model run presents this solution, but it has charted several times over the past week, hence our report.  Should this change verify, we can expect the first WET weekend of the fall, with notable rainfall from BC down to northern CA.  The other model scenarios chart continued dry conditions and mild temperatures.  Which way will it go?

🌀 Hurricane LEE is likely to strengthen again and may take an unfavorable turn toward Cape Cod area - then turn north, skirting the NE Atlantic coast.  Yikes.  This storm will cause serious beach erosion, etc along the eastern seaboard. Another Atlantic hurricane is likely to follow LEE’s path, but it could make landfall a bit farther south (!) - this hurricane will be named NIGER.  Stay tuned.

Overall outlook remains steady with regards to our last two write-ups; there may be a notable shift in atmospherics after the 20th.  Mug up ☕️ and read on.

Pleasant temperatures through much of this weekend.  Warmest day will be Sat, with 80+ degrees across western OR and SW WA; tad cooler around the Puget Sound.  Clouds likely to increase later Sunday, as a weak cold front drifts across the NW corner of WA & southern BC.  A shower could squeeze out of the cool clouds, but not much is expected south of Chehalis.  WA coastal zones likely to experience drizzle or light rain for a few hours early Mon; less of a chance south of Astoria.  Again, this system is quite weak.

Overall for the week of Nine Eleven the charts continue to suggest dry & mild, with temps warming notably by Thu & Fri Sept 14,15..  We still see the chance for 90+ afternoons, mainly south of Eugene in the Sept 14-16 period; warm mid-80s for the Willamette Valley as the Mt Angel Oktoberfest is underway.  Puget Sound cooler, but quite sunny and pleasant.  Nice September pattern.

The next threat for a short-shot of RAIN or showers is charting for Sunday Sept 17, mainly over western WA and the tip of NW OR; cooler, of course.  The rapidly moving cold front will shift east by Mon (damp in ID), leaving west side clouds and a stray shower behind as the week of Sept 18-22 gets underway.  We see another notable WARM-UP on the charts for Tue & Wed Sept 18,19.  The temps in that period could equal or slightly exceed those the week before.  It’s after that mid-week warm-up that another round of precipitation may arrive.

Models present a stretch of cooler, showery conditions for the entire PNW arriving late Thu Sept 20.  This fall pattern could last a few days on through the weekend of Sept 23,24.  Some solutions show stronger pacific storms forming, other just a turn towards a cooler, showery fall pattern.  Why?  Well, the pacific High that has been so stationary to our west the past several weeks is beginning to chart a move farther to the west, which opens the door for pacific storms to gain “access" to the PNW.  Often, when that happens, our overall long-term wx pattern shifts to the classic ‘fall rain mode’.  Is that what may be the weather pattern for the last 7-8 days of September?  A ponder point for now, Patron.

🌀 Hurricane Lee is now quite powerful, but long-range tracking holds the big storm away from the US Atlantic coast, except for possibly Maine.  Nova Scotia is in direct line for landfall next Fri Sept 15.  Serious impact.  The central-northern eastern seaboard will experience higher than normal coastal waves, so tidal levels may be elevated, too.  The media will spin wildly over LEE.  Let’s hope the charts are correct with the position of High Pressure Dome over the Mid-west, which is charting to block LEE's “access" to the population centers of the east coast.  

Good morn’n, Patron ☕️.  Here’s your holiday update for the extended forecast, then back to a ‘day off’.

Mild temps this week, with mostly sunny afternoons.  No organized rain producers on the charts this week, although a very weak trough may cross over N WA & BC on Wed with increased cloudiness for a day.  The coming weekend continues to chart quite pleasant for Sept, with temps mostly in the 70s; low-to-mid 80s in portions of western OR and many east side locations.

The week of Nine Eleven will start out on the warm side, as temps could climb into the upper 80s, maybe even a 90+ in southern OR.  In our last report, we discussed the possibility for a minor ‘heat-up’ during the later part of that week (Mt Angel Oktoberfest time), now however, models are suggesting a change in pattern, with a couple Low pressure troughs working into the PNW - meaning increased clouds, mild temps and a chance for showers from roughly Thu evening through the weekend of Sept 16,17.  Let’s hold off on ‘locking down' this forecast, as model charts frequently shift back to earlier prognostications.  For today, we’ll consider the Mon-Wed period of Sept 11-15 will be the warmest days.  

🌀We should also point out that during 9/11 week, a tropical disturbance - currently west of Africa - may intensify into a hurricane (LEE) and subsequently threaten landfall along the mid-Atlantic seaboard by the end of that week. 

Thunderstorms action could return again on Mon Sept 18 for a day or two.  Other than that, the week of Sept 18-22 is trending mild early, with a chance for a pacific storm to arrive late week.  

Overall, September could present the PNW with a ’standard-fare' weather pattern - not to excessive on moisture nor temperatures.  Let's check again in 4 days to see if this holds true, shall we?

The ninth month is upon us.  Cool start, with a warm-to-hot mid-month outlook.  Meteorological fall begins today.  

The recent rain & showers around the PNW helped clean the air, aid in fire suppression and generally pleased most people.  The last ‘official’ holiday of the summer starts later today (for US), followed by many schools opening next week.  The weather over the holiday looks pleasant today and Sat, with a chance for a few thunderstorms across the southern half of the Willamette Valley & Cascades later Saturday.  Muggy, too.  Temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.  On Sunday, a cooler pattern returns with a cool pacific air mass moving onshore.  Scattered showers possible on Sunday and Labor Day, although the latest model runs minimize the amount of precip - so it could turn out to be a decent, mild Sunday & Monday.  

Next week continues to chart on the cooler side of normal, with a chance for widely scattered showers at times throughout the week.  No organized pacific storm is expected.  That gets us to the weekend of Sep 9,10.  Right now, it looks sunny & warmer than the preceding week.  

The Sep 11-17 period is trending DRY & WARM.  Temps are charting to slowly ramp up every couple of days in that timeline, with 90s possible across most of western OR and SW WA by the weekend of the Mt Angel Oktoberfest - which runs Thu - Sunday, Sep 14-17.  The northern half of western WA, BC and the coastal zones will be cooler, per normal, but dry.  

Given the possible summer-like temps mid-September, the cooler early start to the month will be appreciated.  The "diurnal swing” in Sep will be excellent for wine grape maturation.  We will post an update on Labor Day.  

Wrapping up another month.  The weather this week will be much cooler & damp at times, although not a washout.  Some locations may miss the showers all together.  Get your refill ready.  Here goes —

Cooler today, with an onshore push of marine air.  The arrival of a cold front tomorrow - as that stationary Low west of OR & WA finally shifts inland - will usher in more clouds and showers, primarily north of Salem.  Eastern basins may also pick up some moisture, as will ID.  A stronger front will move through the PNW on Thu, will showers likely all the way south to the CA border.  Thunderstorm development is also possible just about anywhere, with the highest chance for such storm cells occurring on Fri (because of a SW flow aloft and cooler air near the surface).  

Labor Day weekend.  Models have really struggled to agree on a wx pattern over the final summer holiday weekend.  So have we.  Some solutions call for a damp, muggy thunderstorm type pattern across much of the PNW; other runs indicate dry & mild conditions.  We are leaning toward the drier forecast, with an outside chance for a shower, primarily north of Chehalis on Sunday.  

Post Labor Day - the wx looks decent during the short back-to-school / work week.  It could be mostly cloudy over the Puget Sound, but no organized rain/shower pattern is foreseen at this time.  Warm across much of OR and the eastern basins, with temps popping back up into ’summer’ warm by Thu & Fri, Sept 7,8.

Nice warm-to-hot temperatures are charting for the weekend of Sept 9,10.  Could see 90+ in much of western OR; 80s to the north, even up into BC.