A Fall Turn Late Sept?

Overall outlook remains steady with regards to our last two write-ups; there may be a notable shift in atmospherics after the 20th.  Mug up ☕️ and read on.

Pleasant temperatures through much of this weekend.  Warmest day will be Sat, with 80+ degrees across western OR and SW WA; tad cooler around the Puget Sound.  Clouds likely to increase later Sunday, as a weak cold front drifts across the NW corner of WA & southern BC.  A shower could squeeze out of the cool clouds, but not much is expected south of Chehalis.  WA coastal zones likely to experience drizzle or light rain for a few hours early Mon; less of a chance south of Astoria.  Again, this system is quite weak.

Overall for the week of Nine Eleven the charts continue to suggest dry & mild, with temps warming notably by Thu & Fri Sept 14,15..  We still see the chance for 90+ afternoons, mainly south of Eugene in the Sept 14-16 period; warm mid-80s for the Willamette Valley as the Mt Angel Oktoberfest is underway.  Puget Sound cooler, but quite sunny and pleasant.  Nice September pattern.

The next threat for a short-shot of RAIN or showers is charting for Sunday Sept 17, mainly over western WA and the tip of NW OR; cooler, of course.  The rapidly moving cold front will shift east by Mon (damp in ID), leaving west side clouds and a stray shower behind as the week of Sept 18-22 gets underway.  We see another notable WARM-UP on the charts for Tue & Wed Sept 18,19.  The temps in that period could equal or slightly exceed those the week before.  It’s after that mid-week warm-up that another round of precipitation may arrive.

Models present a stretch of cooler, showery conditions for the entire PNW arriving late Thu Sept 20.  This fall pattern could last a few days on through the weekend of Sept 23,24.  Some solutions show stronger pacific storms forming, other just a turn towards a cooler, showery fall pattern.  Why?  Well, the pacific High that has been so stationary to our west the past several weeks is beginning to chart a move farther to the west, which opens the door for pacific storms to gain “access" to the PNW.  Often, when that happens, our overall long-term wx pattern shifts to the classic ‘fall rain mode’.  Is that what may be the weather pattern for the last 7-8 days of September?  A ponder point for now, Patron.

🌀 Hurricane Lee is now quite powerful, but long-range tracking holds the big storm away from the US Atlantic coast, except for possibly Maine.  Nova Scotia is in direct line for landfall next Fri Sept 15.  Serious impact.  The central-northern eastern seaboard will experience higher than normal coastal waves, so tidal levels may be elevated, too.  The media will spin wildly over LEE.  Let’s hope the charts are correct with the position of High Pressure Dome over the Mid-west, which is charting to block LEE's “access" to the population centers of the east coast.