Good morn’n, Patron.  Before checking the long-range outlook — 

Lots of ‘asks’ about whether or not we will be able to view the Annular Solar Eclipse tomorrow morning in Oregon.  As we have indicated for over a week now, Oregon will be in between two damp systems.  --> We’ll forecast that there could be breaks in the clouds during the Annularity over Oregon, allowing for a chance to get a direct view of the Ring of Fire.  A chance, not a guarantee!  The sky is likely to be mostly clear of a ‘sun blocking’ cloud deck - at least inland, away from the coast.  High, thin clouds could ‘filter’ the direct view.  We do not see rain or showers coming into play during the Eclipse.  Southern Willamette Valley viewing sites: check various maps for details as to the precise timing for the peek event around Eugene / Roseburg.

Grab your ☕️Mug.  Increasing clouds today, with rain/showers arriving over OR by this afternoon.  Damp this evening for much of the west side from southern OR to Vancouver Island.  Saturday will turn wet again later in the day/evening; breezy.  Attributes of this system will be similar to Friday’s, but damp nonetheless and rather breezy over Vancouver Island.  Sunday looks to start out rather pleasant, as the next, stronger storm, is trending to arrive overnight Sunday into Monday. 

Next week:  WET and blustery on Monday. Rain moderate as the cold front passes.  Intense showers Monday afternoon into the evening.  Overall, Tue is looking fairly nice, with sunshine and cool temps.  The ’tail’ of a storm heading north of Vancouver Island will dampen the island on Wed; however, for the rest of the PNW, expect dry and MILD conditions.  Temps could reach 70 in places around the Willamette Valley Wed & Thu.  The Big High gets into position.

A large area of High pressure - a Dome - will develop west of the Rockies next week.  This will block Pacific storms and usher in a relatively mild dry spell for nearly a full week.  As noted above, temps will pop up into the 60s and lower 70s by Wed Oct 18.  Indeed, other than an outside chance for showers over Vancouver Is. next Fri Oct 20, the PNW looks DRY until a wet, windy storm arrives on Tue the 24th.  Fog, at times, may arrive, but it should burn off in the respective areas for pleasant, sunny afternoons.  Enjoy the colors of Fall.

Indications are for a stormy, wet and MUCH COOLER weather pattern arriving around the 24th and taking us through the balance of October.  First Frost before Halloween?  Ponder that.

The great weekend to “tuck summer in” has past, we now return to a classic fall rain pattern for several days.  Here’s the latest.

Clouds & light rain has begun moving into the PNW, as a large, stretched out rain band is moving onshore (from the Bay area of CA all the way north into southern BC).  Given that this storm front has stretched out for hundreds of miles, the rain will be short-lived today.  That said, this afternoon should be rather mild, with decreasing rain/showers.

Another, stronger storm is rapidly moving across the Pacific and will impact the PNW starting late tonight.  Expect rain and WIND to increase Tue into Wed.  While not a major wind producing type storm, it will be windy and get noticed, esp with most of the fall foliage still on trees - “Leaf Sails”.  Broken limbs could be an issue; stay alert.  Right now, the stronger wind gusts are charting for overnight Tue into Wed, as the center Low moves onshore over the Olympic Range.  Tue & Wed will be quite wet, with many locations likely to receive over an inch of precipitation.  Cooler temperatures mid-week.  Thursday is trending DRY.  Another system is charting to move onshore sometime Fri the 13th.  Showers possible, esp late Fri into Saturday.  

Yep, in Oregon, the Annular Solar Eclipse time period is trending CLOUDY, with the chance for a shower in viewing areas west of the Cascades.  This could still shift to a more favorable condition, so stay tuned.  The darkening sky will still be mysterious, even if the 'Ring of Fire' is not visible.

Showers and clouds probable through Sat Oct 14, esp north of Portland.  Cloudy Sunday morning before another system threatens rain and/or showers to the region.  Models differ on timing and location of that Sunday/Monday Low pressure cell - as some solutions delay the moderate rain (and breezes) until Monday - with an emphasis on heavy rain over NW WA / southern BC receiving heavy rain first, before the rain fields shifts south across SW WA / NW OR on Tue Oct 17.  Wed the 18th will be showery, cool.  Heavy rain may return to NW WA and southern BC as that week ends, leaving most of OR on the drier side of the ‘jet stream’.  Too early to confirm.

The weekend of Oct 21,22 is trending DRY and pleasantly warm for late October.  Final week of Oct is just coming into model view — dry early, turning damp.  We’ll see.

Sunshine rules this weekend.  Next week will be a different story.  Here’s the rundown of possible wx the next 14 days.

Beautiful, warm weekend is upon us.  Temps topping in the upper 70s to lower 80s, depending on your location; coastal areas will be a tad cooler.  A good time to enjoy a “tug summer in” BBQ.  Forecasters should "Never say never", however, this could be the last ’summer-like’ weekend of 2023, at least regarding warmth.

All indications are for a pair of classic fall storms to arrive starting late Sunday night Oct 8 - plenty of rain.  WINDY, at times too.  A second, potentially stronger tightly wound storm, with a 988-992 mb center, could make landfall over the Olympic Range late afternoon Tue Oct 10 or before midnight, ushering in a gusty night.  Not a super-wet system.  Showers Wed, with clearing in the afternoon.  Cool.  We may catch a rain break on Thu and Fri Oct 12-13, with temps reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s, along with an offshore breeze.

Annular Solar Eclipse - hopefully, when the band of totality passes over central/southern OR, the sky will be free of clouds for direct views of the event.  Current model scenarios chart a Low developing overnight Friday just west of northern CA — with a tracking direction along the OR & WA coasts during the day Saturday.  Hopefully, high clouds from the warm front approaching the OR coast will NOT block a direct view to the east of the ‘Ring of Fire' Eclipse (just after 9 a.m.).  We’ll update this again on Fri the 13th.

Rain & showers from the aforementioned storm will move north all the way into southern BC on Sat.  Winds should not be as strong as the Oct 10 storm.  Clearing Sunday & Monday, with another system bearing lots of RAIN moves into the PNW sometime on Tue Oct 17.  We see a continuation of an on/off rainy pattern through at least Oct 25th.  Storms are likely to be 48 - 72 hours apart.  Mild temps.

Delightful weather remains on the charts.  However, a short downturn will get this week started.  Mug ☕️ time.

A fast moving front will usher in rain across much of the PNW over the next 24 hrs.  The system will first dampen Vancouver Is, southern BC, NW WA and work its way south.  Most of the precipitation today and early Tue will fall over SW WA and much of western OR - definitely more rain than original expectations.  The good news is that a warm ridge of High pressure will rapidly build back in over the PNW, for a delightful stretch of mild October weather.

Expect sunny, dry conditions from later Tue through the coming weekend.  In fact, temps could tease topping 80 in a few SW WA and western OR locations this Thu, Fri and Sat; 70s will prevail.  Models hold off the next Pacific storm until overnight Sunday Oct 8.  That storm will be a ‘drencher’ for Vancouver Is and NW WA, less so for western OR.  Precip is not likely to across into ID with this storm.  Cooler, with showers on Tue Oct 10.  Models have been mixed as to another system for Wed, so for now, we’ll tentatively peg the 11th as a dry day; so too, for Thu Oct 12.  The heavier rain, and possibly WINDS, are trending for Fri the 13th on through the weekend of Oct 14,15.  There is lots of variability in the model solutions that far out, but we consistently see a “notice me” storm or two moving across the PNW in the 13th - 16th period.  We’ll see.

Looks dry & mild for much of the week following Mon the 16th.  In the meantime, enjoy the delightful October weather arriving this week.

The Annular Solar Eclipse will be different from the amazing Total Solar Eclipse experienced back in Oregon back August 2017.  According to University of Oregon astronomy professor Scott Fisher, “The moon is going to be a little farther away from the Earth, and that makes it a little smaller in the sky. So when the moon goes in front of the sun, this time, a ring of the sun is going to be visible around the moon.”  The moon’s shadow will make a “ring of fire”, hence the event is termed an Annular, rather than Total, Eclipse.

☛ Special Eclipse glasses must be worn during the entire event (unlike the Total Eclipse, when it was safe to view the full ‘totality’ without glasses).  This time, enough sunlight (9%) will be visible to damage eyes and unfiltered camera sensors, such as cell phone cameras.  Eclipse glasses should be compliant with the transmittance requirements of the ISO 12312-2 international safety standard - look for ISO logo on the glasses.

☛ Area of Full Annularity - Eugene south to Roseburg is the approx area to experience 3-4 minutes viewing the Ring.  Look to the East, as the event will be in the morning.  Time frame of peak eclipse will be just after 9 am - so study maps & details as to specific times as the event nears.  As we recommended during the Total Eclipse in 2017, study the 8:30-9:30 position of the sun to get a rough idea of the angle of view at your location or planned viewing site, to be sure you have a direct view of the sun. 

☛ The WxCafé™️ outlook for Saturday the 14th, as of Sunday Oct 1, looks partly cloudy, partly sunny with a good chance to see the eclipse.  Oregon may be in between storm systems, if the timing remains as the models project today.  At the peak, sunlight should be dimmed approx 91% - it will be noticed whether or not there is cloud cover.  We will update the Eclipse forecast in every blog post through Fri Oct 13.

☛ The last time an annular eclipse took place in Oregon was May 2012.  After the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024 (Texas, the Midwest & Maine), the contiguous US won’t see another total solar eclipse until 2044, or an annular eclipse until 2046.  Rare astronomical events, indeed.

☛ Link to a decent article on this Oregon topic:  

-Rufus