We are quickly approaching the time of year when weather can mess up a lot of holiday plans & travel.  While perfection is never claimed about our work here, know we do focus closely on what weather issues may have impact on your life & property.  Keep that Mug handy this holiday season.  Let’s peek ahead again - - - -

Overall, the pattern remains a dry one for the balance of November.  However, we do have one rather intense STORM that has popped onto the charts since our last report.  Storms with potential impact typical develop along the boundary of warm & cold air masses - which is what the models project for tomorrow into Sunday.  Our tranquil wx will rapidly change later tomorrow, Saturday Nov 18.  It will be a quick hit storm.

A strong storm (relative to the past few weeks) will move into the PNW tomorrow afternoon, with RAIN early, turning to showers on Sunday.  COLD air will rapidly move in behind the front Saturday night, so ANYONE traveling over the Cascades must be prepared for WINTER STORM conditions.  6-12 inches of snow from pass level and higher; WINDS that will blow snow around limiting vision for night travel.  For valley locations, expect up to an inch of rain from this system and WIND GUSTS - over western OR - that could top 40 mph overnight.  Expect to hear rain on the roof and a howling wind in the night.  Clearing later Sunday, with cooler temperatures arriving.  NOTE: the bulk of the rain and wind gusts will be over Oregon; western WA will be damp, yes, but not quite as stormy.  WA Cascade passes will get snow, so be prepared. 

Thanksgiving week:  yes, it does looks dry all week, other than a short-shot of moisture overnight Tue into early Wed.  This is modeled to be a very weak front, so rain may not even make it farther south than Salem, if that.  An east-to-northeast wind may arrive, holding off the pesky morning fog in places, but also allowing for colder evenings - 30s possible.  Thanksgiving Day is trending DRY and fairly mild for late November.  While some model solutions have brought down colder air from the north a few days after Thanksgiving, most solutions of late are indicating dry, mild conditions through the balance of November.  California will get periodic rain / showers.

🚗 ✈️ National travel will be one of the best holiday periods for a lack of major weather issues.  Models indicate a bit of snow across the heartland, rain in the SE and NE corners, but overall, a decent travel & family time for just about everywhere in America.  Other than strong winds and some rain in the panhandle, Alaska should be good for travel, too.

December 2023:  early look at the final month of the year suggests the month will start out with cold RAINS and mountain snowfall.  Of course, model scenarios do not always take into account the strong El Niño pattern, so we’ll monitor closely.  December storms could target CA more than the PNW, should El Niño play the classic spoiler roll.  Our Mugs will be ready.

Our weather models are far from being ’spot on’ every time, but they do tend to provide a fairly steady trend line.  In our last report, we forecast ‘little bits’ of rain, sun, fog and maybe snow in the extended outlook for the balance of November.  Well, that has shifted a bit to a generalized drier pattern for the next two week.  That shift may be the influence of a relatively strong El Niño this fall.  Let’s take a look at the latest while we enjoy a morn’n ☕️ beverage.

The overall pattern now indicates that most of the precipitation for the rest of November will move into California, missing the PNW almost entirely.  Sure, a weak system here & there will bring us brief rain/showers, but no direct shots of stormy weather is charting for the PNW.  A cold front (which earlier looked much stronger & bring rather low level snowfall to the mountains) will clip the PNW later this coming weekend - primarily overnight Sunday Nov 19.  

Thanksgiving week:  now charting as mostly DRY Mon, Tue, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  Wednesday Nov 22 - the big holiday travel day - is trending damp early, as a cold front passes late Tue night into Wed morning.  Most of the precip will fall north of Portland.  Thanksgiving Day could be a bit foggy.  So too, for Black Friday.  

🚙 ✈️ For travelers: not a horrible outlook for national holiday travel.  Most of the country will remain fairly calm, with the ‘big’ wet storm centered over eastern TX & all of the SE states on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  Cold air moves over the upper plains, with a touch of snow.  Other than ’self induced’ air travel delays, the wx itself should not mess up travel plans.  We’ll update this in our next report on the 17th.

The weekend following Thanksgiving is also trending DRY around the PNW.  A short-shot of wind down the Fraser Gap is possible during that weekend; nothing super cold, but it could clear away any fog issues around the Puget Sound.

Last week of November: more dry days are modeled for the PNW.  As noted above, California will continue to get shots of precip throughout the holiday weekend and to end the month.  Currently, the CA ’storms’ do not look to be flood-producing systems, just a steady period of sky drips, if you will, across much of the state.  

Rather standard fall weather ahead.  Little bits of rain, sun, fog, and snow?  Let’s take a look.

Most of the precip this weekend will fall onto western WA & southern BC.  Portions of the Willamette Valley and OR coast will get some rain later tonight (Fri) into Saturday.  Breezy.  A weak front is also charting for late Sunday into Monday.  Seasonal temps.  

Next week is trending drier & partly sunny after Mon, excluding the typical foggy-bottoms areas in the valley.  California will be the main ‘rain play’ over the next week or so, as the upper-level winds will direct storm action to the Golden State.  Some precip is charting for the southern OR area (mainly moisture rotating north from CA systems); the rest of the PNW should remain mostly dry, cool after Tue.

The weekend before Thanksgiving week is looking to be mixed, with showers over the west side of Cascades.  No real organized front is modeled, at this time.

🦃 Thanksgiving Week:  Turning wet before sunrise Monday, then COLDER (!!) as models indicate the potential for the coldest air mass this fall dropping over the eastern Pacific and then moving over the PNW.  A decent shot of moderate rainfall Monday, with snow levels dropping well below the passes in the Cascades.  The position of the Low pressure center is key, but right now, we may actually see a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain at the surface later on Monday into Tuesday night (Nov 20,21).  Keep your Mug handy for our updates.  The ‘freak’ storm will be over fast, with partial clearing and lingering showers Tue & Wed, Nov 21,22.   Thanksgiving Day is trending mostly DRY and a bit warmer than earlier in the week.  

Post Thanksgiving weekend is just coming into ‘view’ on the charts — looks WET and blustery, esp over western WA and BC.   Lots of time to tighten up the forecast for Thanksgiving & Black Friday in upcoming forecasts.

Classic stormy November weather ahead.  We will get some decent rain-breaks, too.  Let’s review that latest outlook.  Mug ready?

Local weather specialists have been prepping folks around the PNW for today’s (Monday) rough conditions —>>  heavy showers, strong wind gusts, thunder/lightning, possible tornado action, all as a result of cold air aloft, upper & surface wind patterns, etc.  Stay alert, esp when driving or walking around.  Conditions will calm considerably as Tuesday unfolds.  Wednesday will be dry and cool, but a nice break in the rain.  Not for long, though, as the next quick moving system sweeps overhead on Thursday.  Models indicate drying again on Friday.

The coming weekend:  For all areas of the PNW, except for the far NW corner of WA, southern BC, we can expect mostly dry conditions - foggy at times, too.  A ridge of high pressure will protect the region from rain through the weekend and Mon Nov 13.  Monday should also dry out for NW WA & Vancouver BC area.

Next chance for showers is Tue, mainly north of Portland.  That said, each model run lessens the threat, so it may just be a cloud event.  Wed Nov 15 is trending WET.  A couple Lows off the coast, one to the north, the other off the CA coast, may combine to usher in rainfall around the PNW.  Were this to develop, it could end up rainy all the way through the weekend of Nov 18,19.  Stormy, at times, too.  California will be getting plenty of rain & localized flooding during this period (media will mention El Niño).  Note: some solutions push those wet system well north into BC, keeping much of the PNW on the dry side of the ‘jet’.  We favor the wet pattern, for now.

While the Nov 15-19 storms will super-slam CA, wrap-around moisture will move northward into the PNW to keep us damp early in the week of Thanksgiving. 

New month.  Revised outlook.  Pour that second Mug full and read on.

Break in the rain today, but it will be short lived.  A wet 3 days will start tomorrow, Saturday.  Rain will be steady, winds blustery and temperatures will lower considerably.  A good book weekend.  A weaker system will spin onshore Mon Nov 5.  Blustery, but not a super-drenching storm.  We still see a dry Wed & Thu next week; cool.  Rather than a return to heavy rainfall, as discussed in our last forecast, the wx models are now indicating the dry cycle of Wed/Thu extending on through the entire weekend of Nov 11,12.  However, there could be increased clouds and a stray shower overnight the 9th into Fri, esp north of Chehalis.  Iffy.  Morning fog, at times.

The ridge of high pressure that may block systems from rolling in off the Pacific is now charting to remain in place until late Mon or Tue Nov 13,14.  Then, the buckets of rain return.  Wed Nov 16 and the following 5 days look very WET.  Inches of rainfall, if models verify.  At least the previous run of dry days will allow watersheds to drain down before the next deluge arrives.  Models did not chart this break several days ago.  

Summary: wet weekend, dry period for possibly a week, then heavy rains return.  Stay tuned, as Nature always throws in her own course of events.

Quip from 16 years ago:  “Chrysanthemum by any other name would be easier to spell."

Feeling much better!