Trending a Dry 2nd Half

Our weather models are far from being ’spot on’ every time, but they do tend to provide a fairly steady trend line.  In our last report, we forecast ‘little bits’ of rain, sun, fog and maybe snow in the extended outlook for the balance of November.  Well, that has shifted a bit to a generalized drier pattern for the next two week.  That shift may be the influence of a relatively strong El Niño this fall.  Let’s take a look at the latest while we enjoy a morn’n ☕️ beverage.

The overall pattern now indicates that most of the precipitation for the rest of November will move into California, missing the PNW almost entirely.  Sure, a weak system here & there will bring us brief rain/showers, but no direct shots of stormy weather is charting for the PNW.  A cold front (which earlier looked much stronger & bring rather low level snowfall to the mountains) will clip the PNW later this coming weekend - primarily overnight Sunday Nov 19.  

Thanksgiving week:  now charting as mostly DRY Mon, Tue, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  Wednesday Nov 22 - the big holiday travel day - is trending damp early, as a cold front passes late Tue night into Wed morning.  Most of the precip will fall north of Portland.  Thanksgiving Day could be a bit foggy.  So too, for Black Friday.  

🚙 ✈️ For travelers: not a horrible outlook for national holiday travel.  Most of the country will remain fairly calm, with the ‘big’ wet storm centered over eastern TX & all of the SE states on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  Cold air moves over the upper plains, with a touch of snow.  Other than ’self induced’ air travel delays, the wx itself should not mess up travel plans.  We’ll update this in our next report on the 17th.

The weekend following Thanksgiving is also trending DRY around the PNW.  A short-shot of wind down the Fraser Gap is possible during that weekend; nothing super cold, but it could clear away any fog issues around the Puget Sound.

Last week of November: more dry days are modeled for the PNW.  As noted above, California will continue to get shots of precip throughout the holiday weekend and to end the month.  Currently, the CA ’storms’ do not look to be flood-producing systems, just a steady period of sky drips, if you will, across much of the state.