Nearing the end of the month with a warm weekend ahead.  It will turn cooler again before more summer temps are possible.  Mug ready?  Here we go —

 

This weekend will be pleasant, with Sunday coming bringing on the warmest temps - could be in the mid-80s or higher for western OR; a bit cooler over the Sound.  An onshore flow will begin again next week, so expect a mild, but dry, week ahead leading into the last summer holiday.

 

Model solutions for the Labor Day weekend have been back-n-forth showing either dry & warm or cooler, with chance for some precipitation, esp over WA & BC midway through the holiday.  For today, we’ll recommend planning for a mild temperature holiday period with the chance for showers over the northern tier of the PNW, esp on Sunday.  Labor Day may turn out just fine, as the following week is trending WARMER with the feel of summer returning for several days.

 

Yep, temps should rebound for an extended period from just after Labor Day Sep 6 and lasting through at least Mon Sep 13.  We should note that several model runs have indicated a cool, somewhat damp pattern during the period, but that has, indeed, been trending off the charts.  We’ll see which pattern verifies.

 

????Tropical Topical:  We mentioned two potential tropical storms in our last update, one (IDA) is moving in faster and will be the big story this weekend (Louisiana landfall probable, with NOLA potentially in the strongest quadrant) - IDA will strengthen considerably; the other, may run late, but still torment the Baja area just after Labor Day weekend.

 

Your host will participate in The 2021 Walk to End Alzheimer’s - Sept 25. 

 

 

 

(Delay because internet provider was off-line). Pleasant weather ahead, so grab your fav morning bev and read the update.

 

Mild temperatures can be expected through this week, with a cool, but weak, Low pressure trough due to arrive over SW BC / Vancouver by Fri.  Showers for Vancouver Island & the far NW corner of WA, as a result.  The rest of the PNW will head into the coming weekend with breezy, sunny afternoons.  There is the likelihood for temps to WARM up 5-10 degrees or so by Sunday, as a ridge of High pressure rebuilds into the PNW from the south.  This will be short lived, given another Low following the path of the previous one — so by the last day of August, temps should drop down again, esp for the Puget Sound, north.  BREEZY.

 

Seasonal afternoon temps for the start of Sept.  Breezes from the NW.  Labor Day weekend is trending quite favorable, with warm afternoons following morning cloud decks in the usual places west side.  Not too warm, not too cold, no rain.

 

After Labor Day, Sept may turn cooler, with weak systems moving in from the NW and, hopefully, some rainfall before mid-month, as the dominant summer Pacific High shifts farther west, opening the storm door.  Please.  IMAGE BELOW: cumulative precipitation estimate for the most of the US from today through Sep 8.  Notice the PNW & CA are completely dry (white).  Yikes.

 

Tropical Topical:  two hurricanes are probable during the holiday weekend.  One, a Pacific storm that will be close to the tip of Baja, potentially stirring up some good surfing waves for SoCal; the other, an Atlantic storm that may become one of the strongest of the year, threatening the TX to FL panhandle region of the Gulf.  We’ll keep an eye on the ‘eyes’.

 

 

 

Brief update today. 

 

The current Cool pattern should prevail for several more days, with the next pleasant warming trend on tap for later next week.  You may be under a shower, esp along the slopes of the mountains.  Models hint at temps in the 80s for many west side locations for a few days starting next Fri, Aug 27.  The Puget Sound area may remain on the cooler side of the event.  

 

As the last week in August gets underway, expect a weak trough to begin moving down from the NW, cooling the PNW down again.  This time, by early Sept, the chance for drizzles & showers will increase as the Labor Day weekend approaches.  It will turn cool and WINDY across eastern basins too, esp into ID and the continental divide.  If the models verify, Labor Day weekend will not feel like summer.  

 

A Pacific hurricane could roll right up the Gulf of California, while another one may form and threaten the eastern Gulf States.  That time of year.

 

Another funny from the ’Net: “One minute you’re young, hip and carefree and the next minute you’re photographing vegetables in your garden."

(send from a friend that has been following the Giant Pumpkin Project.  Pumpkin is now 442 lbs.)

 

 

Two solutions for the end of August, one includes chance for rain.  Beforehand, here’s what to expect.  

 

Cooler, pleasant temperatures, with afternoon NW breezes, will be the story all this week, and possibly into the coming weekend.  It may warm up several degrees late in the week, but cool right back down as another push of marine air moves over the region.  Temps east side will trends seasonal.  NO RAIN.

 

As noted, next weekend should be pleasant, with morning marine cloud deck, esp over the Puget Sound.  We will not rule out a dust-buster shower for the far north of WA & southern BC. 

 

By Tue Aug 24, models build back a rather warm ridge of High pressure, so temps will return to the upper 80s, lower 90s for a few days in many west side locations.  However, another cooler pattern should return, yet again, by the last weekend of August.  This cool trough of Low pressure may be deep enough to generate a few SHOWERS, mainly over the Puget Sound, north.  Baby steps?  

 

Aug 30 - Sept 2.  Here’s where we get a split decision in the long-range outlook: an outlier model run hints at a “true” wet system moving in from the NW, to end the month with what some remember as RAIN; the other solutions rebuild that warm ridge again for a string of warm summer temps for this period.  Lots of time to learn which scenario Nature will select, but that’s what is charting right now.  

 

A quip from the ‘Net:  “Remember, if you lose a sock in the dryer, it comes back as a Tupperware lid that doesn’t fit any of your containers."

 

-Rufus

 

 

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Friday the 13th

 

Dry summer days remain in our forecast.  Another heat wave pattern (90s) may rebuild later next week, so enjoy the 'cool-down' mentioned below.  Mug time.

 

The current Heat Wave will subside a bit as the weekend unfolds.  A shift in the wind pattern will push fire smoke away from western valleys, but still brown the sky to our east. Temps will drop into the not-so-hot zone, still summer warmth though, with NW breezes.  Onshore flow will weaken later next week, so temps are likely to rebound into the 90s in many west side locations. 

 

Looks fairly warm-to-hot from Mon Aug 23 through Wed that next week.  Model runs suggest another cooler, onshore flow may kick-back in by Thu Aug 26, setting up a pleasant final weekend of August (drizzle along the coast).  Charts shift the Summer Pacific High a bit farther west, setting up our beloved onshore flow 'air conditioning'.  We’ll see.

 

Generally, there are no long-range solutions that hint at notable precip through the rest of August.  Drought conditions are serious. We are all tired of fires, smoke & dust.

 

For those keeping track, our giant pumpkin project continues here at Mennonite Village, Albany.  “The Pumpkinator” (the winning name), is now 405 pounds.  

 

“Some things not worth saying are now put into songs.”   No, our forecasts are not to be sung!