The Weather Cafe ® by Rufus

Written by Rufus La Lone since 1994.

Chilly Mix

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday - Pi Day - 2022
 
A few changes, as we come to expect, in the long-range outlook, so let’s take a Mug shot.
 
Wet through Tue, cooling down a few degrees tomorrow.  Wednesday is now trending as mostly dry, with a chance for a shower here-and-there along the western slopes of the Cascades.  St Patrick’s Day should turn damp, from north to south, as a weak system drapes over the PNW (most of the precip should be over western WA, southern BC); mainly cloudiness south of Salem.   The wet Friday system mentioned in our last write-up will arrive a few hours later, setting up a brisk, wet start to the weekend, with snow levels dropping into the foothills by late Saturday.  We may catch rain break starting Sunday (which is the opposite of our last report), with drier, cold air aloft.  FROST probable east of the Cascades Sunday and/or Monday morning, should the sky clear in your location; west side is likely to remain frost-free, but it will be close.   A brisk start to Spring 2022.
 
The first 3 days of next week are now trending mostly dry for Oregon, wet for northern 1/2 of western WA & BC.early.  It will turn chilly & WET for the Mar 26,27 weekend (note: late model solutions keep it dry Sat the 26th).  A wet & chilly (relatively low elevation snow showers) pattern is charting to continue on into the last few days of March, so don’t expect the ground to dry enough for major farm work.  
 
Second Cup ☕️☕️.  We’ve all noticed the dramatic swing back & forth of the extended-range model outlooks over the last several months.  What was charting as wet, turns dry, then shifting back again.  For our newer Patrons, such is the nature of this venture.  However, in our opinion, broadly there remains enough overall accuracy in the model trends to warrant our continual presentation of ‘what may happen’.  Stick with us.  The frustration in planning outdoor activities ‘around the weather’ is recognized, especially now, as Spring & Summer unfold this year.
 
“Courage is contagious.  When a brave man takes a stand, the spines of others are often stiffened.” -Billy Graham 1964
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →

Turning Point

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday March 11
 
ALERT:  Strong Oregon storm coming.  Hold on to your Mug.
 
Chilly, dry weather will transition to wet & blustery conditions this weekend.  For Patrons in western OR and SW WA, double-check all items outside to be sure they won’t blow around / hit your home and/or vehicles.  A strong WIND EVENT - for this time of year -  is likely overnight Sat into early Sunday.  Wet, too.  Wind gusts may top 40-50 mph in the Willamette Valley, esp south of Salem.  This storm will also mark a turning point in the large scale weather pattern across the PNW.  
 
Next week looks quite wet on Monday and Friday, with showery conditions in between; generally a tad warmer too, esp overnight.  Excluding the far NW corner of WA & Vancouver Island, St Patty’s Day may end up the driest day of the week (yes, yet another Luck of the Irish shift in the forecast).  
 
There are several indications that starting with a WET system on Friday March 18, the PNW may experience precipitation EACH DAY on through at least March 28.  Some of that moisture may occur overnight, but overall, the amount of lowland rainfall for the period from this Sunday through March 28 could range 4”-8”; higher amounts along the slopes of the coast & Cascade ranges.  Yikes - a Spring drenching.  This long-range outlook could change, but for now, work on those outdoor projects as best you can between now and the 18th.  The added day length will help.  
 
Lastly, localized power outages are probable this weekend, right about the time we are to set our clocks forward.  Keep that in mind.
 
“It now costs more to amuse a child than it once did to educate his father."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2021 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →

Chill then Drench Time

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday March 7

 
Chilly week ahead, with rain returning over the weekend.  Grab that Mug, Patron.
 
After a rather pleasant Monday, cool conditions, along with a few showers over western OR on tap the early part of this week.  A bit more moisture over NW WA & ID later tomorrow as a cold front rapidly passes from the NW.  This one has cold air support, so Fraser Gap winds will kick-up by Tue night.  Snow levels will drop fast, but per usual, the moisture will be just about gone.  That said, enough may linger to yield a dusting of The White in the foothills ‘about town’.  Frosty and/or foggy again as the week ends.  Thu morning could be the coldest of the week.
 
By the weekend, another wet system will begin arriving late Saturday, from the north.  Expect rain & showers to dampen the remainder of the coming weekend.  Snow levels will be higher as compared mid-week.  A much more vigorous storm will arrive to start next week.  Windy and moderate rainfall will be the rule from overnight Sunday on through Tue - the Ides of March.  Behind this storm will be a large area of cold air over the eastern Pacific, hence showers later Tue could produce some hail and/or foothill snow.   Jacket chilly.  
 
A secondary, although weak, cold front may drop by for a St Patrick’s Day visit.  Drat.  We were hoping for a lucky break - mild & dry.  That still remains possible for western OR.  After a relatively dry night on Thu, Fri the 18th will introduce another extended period of precipitation.   
 
Spring springs forth.  Moderate-to-heavy rain, gusty wind and, at times, feet of snow will be our introduction to Spring 2022.  The Equinox on Sunday March 20th will present wet conditions - which is charting to continue on through the week of Mar 21-25.  While a long way out on the wx timeline, overnight Mon the 21 into Tue may be very windy, esp for western OR.  Don’t be surprised to hear about another ‘atmospheric river’ event that week.  Flooding concerns.
 
Overall, expect chilly wx for another 10 days or so, before a drenching introduction to Spring 2022.  
 
“Be like a duck - keep calm and unruffled on the surface, but paddle with all your might under the water."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2021 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →

Damp & Cool

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday March 4
 
Typical pre-Spring weather on tap.  Keep that morn’n bev hot, as it will be chilly.
 
A cold-core Low, just off the coast of OR, is spinning its way south into CA.  Cool temps will follow, esp for Sacramento Valley (pockets of frost possible).  The PNW will be jacket-chilly this weekend and dry.  
 
The next chance for showers arrives sometime Tue, when a cold Yukon High begins its journey into the lower 48.  This cold air will clip the PNW just a bit by Wed, as the bulk of the cold will move east of the Rockies.  Still, a quick shot of Fraser Outflow should happen by early Wed, so Patrons in NW WA can expect a chilly, windy day mid-week.  (We do not foresee a deep freeze pattern, just cooler than the past several days.)  Also, the moisture associated with the cold front will fall primarily over NW WA on into ID, with a few showers possible from Salem north.  By Wed night, it will dry out again and stay that way until Sat Mar 12.
 
The weekend of Mar 12,13 is trending wet, esp by late Saturday.  A moisture-laden system will expand from Vancouver Is & environs to all of the PNW by Sunday.  Breezy.  Moderate rainfall will continue over central/southern Willamette Valley Monday.  Turning showery on Tue, the 15th over western WA & BC, drying out in western OR.  Looks like we’ll be in between systems for a few days to end that week.  On the latest charts, St Patty’s Day looks mild & dry, esp from Olympia south into northern CA.  However, that may be an outlier for now.  Stay tuned.  North Vancouver Is. will continue under clouds & showers during that same period.
 
Steady rain returns by Sat Mar 19, as a wet storm arrives from the west.  A second system may follow right behind that storm to contribute to a wet March weekend.  Overall, tough time for those waiting to ‘work the ground’ with their tractors, as we don’t see a dry stretch just yet.
 
“The same sun melts ice and hardens clay."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →

Chilly March

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday February 28
 
And so it ends.  Our long February dry spell has expired.  Plenty of moisture & relatively low elevation snow, along with chilly temperatures, will be the story for the first half of March.  Morn’n Mug ready?
 
The warm & WET flow of air moving over the PNW will continue through mid-week, then conditions will slowly turn notably cooler late week.  High pressure over the Pacific will edge west, along with the upper-level winds shifting to the N-NW by the weekend, will drop temperatures into the chill range.  Snow levels will drop, setting up some rain/snow mixed around 500 - 1,000 ft or so by the early next week.  In the meantime, moderate-to-heavy rain combined with high freezing levels will cause flood concerns.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service statements.  
 
Again, cooler temps will arrive this weekend and be the rule for the following 10 days.  The warmest period for the 1st half of March is now.  The coming weekend (Mar 5,6) will not be dry, but it will also present far less rainfall than the week ahead.  Jacket time again.
 
The week of Mar 7-11 looks mixed, with rain, mountain snow and maybe a dry day thrown in, esp for western WA (Thu the 10th?); some solutions keep it mostly dry after Monday until late Fri.  We’ll see.  All model runs chart another WET blustery system moving in from the NW sometime Fri Mar 11 or early Sat Mar 12.  This storm will be a cold core system, so expect the snow level to drop notably by Sunday Mar 13, esp north of Portland.  While we don’t suggest surface snow, the air mass will be cold, so hail and snow above 500 - 1,000 ft is possible, esp north of Portland on Sunday Mar 13.  We often experience this type of pattern in March, while we await Spring.
 
Mid-March is looking to be wet and blustery at this point.  
 
“Sooner or later, false thinking brings wrong conduct.” -Julian Huxley 1923
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2021 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →