OK, so the tag line has your attention.  So, too, does that Mug full of your fav morn’n bev.  

 

Yes, there is a high probability that some ‘wham bam’ weather is on the way to the PNW soon.  Sorry to use such a technical, meteorological term so early on a Monday, but hey, Mug up, you can handle it.  Seriously, the period of Oct 13-20 continues to chart several classic fall storms striking the PNW.  Overall, a broad, Low pressure pattern will center over the Gulf of Alaska, with that battle zone between cold & warm air masses setting off powerful surface storms in the Gulf.  These systems will roll right into BC & the PNW (and, subsequently, across the lower 48 for some wild, news-making fall wx).  What about this week?  Sip on.

 

A system will spin into our area by Tue morning, so expect winds to increase, along with some precipitation.  While not a strong disturbance, it will cool down the region and add another dusting of snow to the higher elevations of the Cascades.  Thu morning is likely to be the coldest one thus far this fall.  Some areas, mainly east side, could be frosty if the sky clears.  Friday will be another mixed day, with a weak system arriving for some showers here and there.  

 

Saturday will be cloudy and with a few showers from roughly Chehalis north; OR, along with the eastern basins, should remain dry.  This coming Sunday, Oct 10 begins the transition into that classic stormy period mentioned above.  A rather cold air mass moves down from the NW, bringing rain/showers, mountain snow (below pass level possible) and the COLDEST TEMPS of the fall season thus far.  

 

Classic Storm Time.  Monday the 11th will be mostly dry, wear-a-coat chilly.  It will continue to dry out & chill down by Tue morning Oct 12.  A FROSTY MORNING is likely, if the sky clears in your area.  Protect patio plants.  California & NV Patrons (yes, we have hundreds) will experience high winds.  Wed the 13th will be WET and blustery in the PNW.  A Low is modeled to move close to the coast, but never make ‘landfall’, so expect dampness and blustery conditions to hold into Fri.  (This system has been modeled, at times, to be rather windy, however, the trend is to keep it offshore and not as ‘deep’ a Low.)  HEAVY RAIN, with notable winds will be the calling card for the system due in overnight Fri the 15th.  

 

The weekend of Oct 16,17 will be STORMY.  Another, very strong storm is charting to arrive sometime late Sat.  This one could develop into a MAJOR WIND EVENT, so stay tuned.  Lots of rain, too!  Right behind the weekend storm will be another one, rapidly moving across the Pacific to slam into the PNW on Monday Oct 18.  Tue & Wed, Oct 19,20 have presented as either very stormy, or as a drying out period.  Too early to pin down that portion of the forecast board just yet.

 

Bottom line: we are not trying to be sensational here, just presenting what looks to be a significant change in the weather pattern for the PNW.  A change that will bring much needed rainfall and shots of mountain snow.  Plan ahead.  Secure items about your property (home or business) that could fly around in strong winds.  Protect frost-sensitive plants.  Fall foliage drop will limit the ability to ’stay ahead’ of plugged gutters, storm drains, etc.  Street & highway management will be kept busy. 

 

We will post Special Statements, as warranted, should one or more of the modeled storms look even more threatening.  The storms may vary as to timing.  Wham Bam weather coming. 

 

 

 

New month.  New forecast.  Fresh Mug full.  

 

Interesting fall wx continues to present on the charts for later this month.  One key aspect will be the potential for powerful WIND events.  We mentioned this last time; now, other PNW wx geeks are taking note.  Before pondering all that, let’s forecast the between now and then.  

 

This weekend should be cool-to-pleasant across the region, although clouds and some showers may hide the sun, at times, the farther north one goes into WA / BC, as a weak front will drape across NW WA / Vancouver Is. later Saturday.  Oregon temps are likely to pop into the lower 70s on Sunday.  

 

Monday looks dry and mild for the entire PNW.  Tue should be a turning point day, as an approaching front - a damp one, if models are correct - rapidly moves onshore over northern Vancouver Is.  Rather breezy over the Puget Sound.  The front will cover western OR by Wed, so expect some precip & much colder temps in the Cascades.  Cooler on Thu before another, stronger system roles into the scene for a wet Fri Oct 8.  This storm may shift into northern CA, NV next weekend.

 

Speaking of the Oct 9,10 weekend - Sat may be a mostly dry day, with fog in the morning, before more CHILLY wet wx arrives on Sunday.  Showers will linger, as will the put-on-a-coat temperatures to get the next week, Oct 11-15 started.  Models have varied, as you would expect, on the actual timing of wet cold fronts moving onshore during that next week on into the weekend of Oct 16-17, but solutions indicating one or two potentially STRONG wind events continue to tease out.  It could remain damp that week, with a strong WIND storm on Wed the 13, as a deep Low develops Tue Oct 12th, followed by another WIND PRODUCER on Saturday the 16th.  Other solutions keep the whole week very WET, with lots of high Cascade snow, with no major wind event(s).  

 

Long-time Patrons understand the importance of being prepared, just in case.  Models are not always ‘wrong’, they often vary on timing for key events.  We will keep close watch on these potential wind events, and post updates, as warranted, should this pattern begin to verify.

 

Bottom line: we are shifting out of the drought pattern that has gripped the PNW since early last Spring, and into a classic, storm-filled Fall pattern - all part of what is now recognized as a “La Niña” influenced cycle of weather.  Will ‘big wind’ play a role?  Keep your Mug handy.

 

 

Monday September 27

 

Heading into October, it will be wet.  However, a fall harvest dry period is on the way.  Mug up.

 

On / off rain and showers will prevail for most of this week over WA & BC.  A thunderstorm is possible, both sides of the mountains.  Windy, at times (strong winds over ID, MT, WY on Tue).  The break we expected on Wed will be short-lived, as another system will bring more rain later on Wed into Thu.  That said, it will be wet over OR through Tue, then likely dry -  south of Salem - as we may miss that mid-week system, other than some cloudiness.  For the entire PNW, including Vancouver Island, Fri Oct 1 will be the dry-out day.  

 

The coming weekend is charting as delightful.  Plenty of sunshine, mild-to-warm temperatures, N-NE breezes.  In fact, it looks DRY from the first weekend of October all the way through Thu Oct 7.  Models are trending towards a system spinning SW of OR late the week of Oct 4-8 which, if it develops, will bring rain/showers or thunderstorms in from the SW by Fri the 8.  This is a relatively new trend, but could also open the door for WIND PRODUCING storms as we head into the 59th anniversary of the Oct 12 Columbus Day Storm of ’62.  There are solutions that keep the PNW on the drier side for a couple extra days, until the weekend of Oct 9,10 when that southerly flow, return-of-precipitation pattern begins.  We’ll see.

 

Overall:  the current wet pattern is much appreciated, as will be the upcoming 7 day dry period for hazelnut and grape harvests.  Mid-Oct is traditionally the “turning point” into the PNW rainy season.  Will October 2021 bring on at least that much normalcy?  A Ponder Point.

 

 

The Weather Café®️ was recognized as the Mid-Valley Chapter’s Top Earner for the 2021 Walk to End Alzheimer’s here in Albany, OR on Saturday.  Your generous contributions totaled $5,050!  Let’s all tip our Mugs for the job well done.  THANK YOU!!! 

 

Friday September 24

 

Pleasant Fall weather ahead, including an additional round of precipitation (hurray!).  Let’s sip into the details.

 

Mild & dry through Saturday ahead of 3 damp, cool days of fall weather.  Wet Sunday through Monday.  Eastern basins & ID will get in on the moisture by Monday.  Good news.  It should dry out overnight Tue, providing a pleasant mid-week break from the showers.  Another system will clip Vancouver Island & NW WA on Thu.  Right now, clouds may be the only impact for SW WA and OR next Thu.  However, a weak band of rain could drift over OR & WA on Fri. Oct 1.

 

The first weekend of October is trending DRY and pleasant.  In fact, an extended dry period is charting for Sat Oct 2 until Tue evening Oct 5, when a wet system will return to the region.  (Patrons in the northern half of Vancouver Is. will be wet on Tue Oct 5).  Lingering showers & cool temps will prevail over western WA through Wed.  OR should be dry on the 6th, as will the rest of the PNW through the end of that week and beyond.

 

No major organized storm is on the charts for the PNW for the weekend of Oct 9,10 - although the Pacific High pressure ridge will shift enough to allow for weak fronts to clip the far NW corner of WA, keeping clouds around with a shower possible.  

 

It will be cool across the entire PNW throughout the forecast period detailed above.  Cool meaning no 80 degree periods are foreseen by the models.  

Note: we are watching the potential development of a High pressure dome over NW Alaska, which could set up our first frosts of the fall later in October.  A long shot for sure, but definitely that time of year.  

 

 

The long awaited fall storm is now moving onshore over southern BC and WA.  Oregon and the rest of the PNW will be drenched soon.  Sipping from your Mug tomorrow morning with the sound of rain outside will be wonderful.  We will not spend much time on this weekend’s storm, since it has been extensively covered by so many already.  Let’s take a peek at what may arrive AFTER this weekend's soaking.

 

Cool air will follow behind the storm, so expect a chilly Monday morning.  Most of the storm-front related precip will have moved east by then.  Temperatures will rebound next week, although we'll likely get some clouds & a few showers on Wed, mainly over western WA & BC, as a ridge of High pressure rebuilds over the PNW.  Sunshine should be the rule as the week ends, and throughout the last weekend of September.  In fact, it may turn rather WARM next weekend, all the way north into the Abbotsford area.

 

The week of Sept 27 - Oct 1 should begin sunny & warm.  By late week, a weak Low may develop and move into northern CA triggering thunderstorms along the southern OR Cascades.  Too early to tell if any boomers will drift over the Willamette Valley.  That system will dampen ID as Oct gets underway.  It will be WARM.  

 

Please note: earlier model runs were indicating another wet period for southern BC & western WA for the weekend of Sep 25,26 & extending into the following week — while that solution has lost favor, we always caution that Nature often retros-back to early solutions.  Just say’n.

 

Bottom line:  rain will be a blessing, esp if long-range model runs are correct, and the PNW returns to another extended dry period from Tue Sep 22 through Oct 3.  However, fall crop harvests will benefit.

 - - -

 

 

Lastly, with a circumference of 10 ft. 4 in., the final weight of our giant pumpkin was 533 lb. on Sept 14.  We had 85 folks attend the Weigh-off Ceremony here at Mennonite Village, Albany.  A fun event, for sure.