Winter weather pattern may return later the month.  Let’s hope the models are joking.  Better Mug up, Patron.

 

Mild Friday ahead, with a few clouds & maybe a shower or two, esp north of Portland.  Saturday also trending mild and generally dry.  The weak front passing today will sweep the stage for the upcoming big show.  STORMY conditions will begin on Sunday.  First to arrive will be a shot of rain, moving in from the northwest, so WA & Vancouver Is. first, then OR as the day progresses.  By nightfall, a powerful storm will begin to push into the PNW.  This one will pack quite a blow, literally.  WIND will increase, esp along the coast & up in the mountains Sunday night into Monday.  Western valleys will also turn quite windy.  May be good to secure outdoor furniture.  RAIN will be heavy.  SNOW at pass level and higher will measure 1+ to 2+ FEET during this event, which combined with strong winds, will make any travel over the Cascades risky.  If you must go, please carry winter gear and emergency supplies in your vehicle.

 

Pressure differences between Brookings OR and north Vancouver Island are charting to be quite large for April, hence the wind issue.  It will be windy all day Monday, as a 984 mb Low center passes just north of Vancouver Is.  Wind will let up overnight Monday, so too, the precip, as rain turns to showers (which could be intense, given the cold air on the back side of this strong April storm).  

 

Wednesday next week should be mostly dry, warmer.  On Thu, a weak system may bring clouds and showers over NW WA; dry for the rest of the PNW on into Palm Sunday weekend.  Here’s where the long-range forecast is trending winter-like.  A series of very COLD systems are modeled to push out of the Gulf of Alaska into the PNW.  Air over the Gulf will turn winter-cold.  Late Palm Sunday (the 10th), the first storm will arrive, with cold air (snow at low elevations, maybe even mixing to the surface, WINDY as the charted Low moves onshore around Astoria.  Mountain & coast range snow event is probable.  Rain & wind pick back up again on Tue Apr 12 and hold through the 13th.  Again, snow measured by the foot is possible at pass level.  The air mass will remain quite cold for April, so snow mixing down to coast range, or even to 500-800 ft is possible. Cold & damp Wed - Fri Apr 13-15.  More cold rain, mountain snow charting for the middle week of April - Easter.

 

OK.  So, is the above an April Fool’s Day forecast?  No, this pattern has been hinted at by the long-range charts for several days now.  Whether or not the pattern verifies is the uncertainty.  We have experienced winter-like weather during Easter season in the past.  We’ll be monitoring this closely in the week ahead.

 

 

 

Wrapping up the month with cloudiness and hope for a pleasant April.  Let’s ponder the options.

 

Clouds & showers (moving north from a California Low pressure system) will slowly yield to warmer sunshine in many PNW areas today.  Heavy rain along the OR/ID border will slowly move NE.  Additional showers / thunderstorms possible in the southern quadrant of OR, as well.

 

This week: expect Tue to be the warmest and driest day of the week, with mild temps & an 'easy breeze'.  A weak, but rather chilly, system will edge into the PNW on Wed, north-to-south, so clouds will return, as will the chance for precipitation, most of which will fall north of Portland.  The storm is not modeled to produce a lot of rain, merely enough to dampen roads and refresh early Spring flowers.  April Fool’s Day will be mostly dry & cool.  The far corner of NW WA & Vancouver Island could get another splash or two of rain on Friday; most of us should remain mild & dry.  

 

The weekend ahead: we had hoped that model solutions for an amazingly warm & dry weekend would verify.  Well, that’s gone.  While not a total wash-out, charts now indicate on/off period of showers, with sun breaks.  Temperatures should remain on the mild side, overall.  All that will set the stage for a wet start to the week of Apr 4-8.  

 

Sunday night through Tue Apr 4, looks damp & cool, esp from Portland/Salem north.  A high pressure ridge, currently centered well offshore of OR will slowly build NE, turning off the cool showers and setting up a pleasant 2nd half to next week.  It will get quite WINDY across southern OR, both sides of the mountains; northern CA, too.  That wind will shift northeasterly by late Thu evening, which will bring on WARM temperatures in western OR on Fri.  That warmth will also nudge north over the Puget Sound by later Fri the 8th.  All of areas west side will experience a pleasant Saturday, Apr 9.  (Yes, we recognize it is only a long-range prog.)  A large Low pressure trough is charting to fill the Gulf of Alaska as the weekend of Apr 9 & Palm Sunday.  This, if verified, will set up a rather cold, WET period Apr 11-14.  As a matter of note: model solutions suggest a cold Low off the coast of NW WA, which could open the door for a pre-Easter cold snap.  Ponder Point, for now.

 

 

 

The wide variation in wx model projections we have experienced of late continues.  Today’s update presents changes - favorable for OR, especially for agriculture; not so much so for NW WA and BC.  Mug refill. 

 

First, the two systems we discussed for this weekend are going to split far apart offshore.  One will bring back showers - starting tonight - to areas around the Puget Sound, maybe as far south as Chehalis through Sat; the other, much larger system, will drop far to the south to bring rain for CA by Sunday.  Oregon & SW WA Patrons are likely to be granted a decent final weekend in March.  Saturday should be pleasant, with the chance for a Cascade slope shower or thunderstorm on Sunday, as the big Low moves along central CA coast.  Temperatures will be comfortable.

 

Another weak disturbance may bring clouds & a few showers over the Puget Sound, north on Wed; other than that, next week is looking dry until Fri for much of the PNW.  The rain charted earlier is gone.  The system that may develop on April Fool’s Day should be short-lived, opening the door for a decent, mild temperature 1st weekend of April.  Sunday April 3 could be absolutely PNW delightful.  Systems split well-offshore, leaving the PNW under a mild ridge of high pressure, west of those split Lows.

 

The week of Apr 4-8 is trending as mostly WET, with a series of systems (wetter the farther north one goes from OR into BC).  Hard to trust this extended-range outlook, as model projections showing the wet periods have been wrong more often than right.  Good reason to keep that Mug handy for these discussions on Mondays and Fridays.

 

 

 

Pleasant days ahead, so too, will be additional rainfall.  Let’s take a peek.

 

Today’s precip should end later in the evening, as a high pressure ridge rapidly builds overhead.  Temps tomorrow will jump into the 60s in many locations, excluding the far NW corner of the PNW, which may have some cloudiness.  There will be a short downturn on Wed, as a very weak system drapes clouds and a few showers over the region, esp north of Eugene.  Thursday and most of the day Fri look dry & mild.  Temps should pop back up into the 60s in western OR - maybe the low 70s in southern OR; it will be a bit cooler for the Puget Sound).

  

The last weekend of March is shaping up to be wet, although the models have shifted the second system of the 'double play' (mentioned in our last discussion) farther south into CA.  Therefore, we’ll forecast a mix of sun & showers for Sunday Mar 27.   

 

The last few days of March are trending as quite WET & blustery.  A series of storm fronts are charting to roll onshore, each with breezy conditions, and cooler temps, esp on Fri, April Fool’s Day.  

 

Most solutions for the first weekend of April are indicating absolutely delightful Spring weather up & down the entire west coast.  Temps could top out in the upper 70s from Eugene north; lower 70s over western WA by Sunday Apr 3.  Too early to break out the patio shade umbrella, but we can at least begin to hope.  

 

The April 4-8 period looks CHILLY, with the potential for FROST in the Columbia basin & upper desert at some point that week.  Why?  A cold - for April - interior Canada air mass may move into the heartland, clipping the PNW on the eastern flank.  A NE offshore wind could usher in some of that heavy, chilly air into western portions of the PNW through the usual Cascade Gaps.  We’ll keep an eye on this just in case it looks highly probable.  For now, we’ll forecast a relatively dry, but chilly, pattern that week.

 

 

 

The Spring Equinox is Sunday.  We’ll also be in for a favorable change in the weather pattern just in time for Oregon Spring Break week.  Morn’n beverage refilled?

 

A cold, wet pattern will be the story for this weekend, as a new season begins.  Rain will start later tonight (Fri) in the north then spread across the PNW by Sat.  Snow levels will drop below the passes by Sunday; travelers be aware if heading over the mountains.  

 

Spring Break week has taken a positive change - as temperatures now look to jump into the 60s in many west side locations by Tue or Wed; teasing the low 70s in southern OR.  In fact, other than a few late-day showers over the far north corner of WA and/or Vancouver Is. on Monday, the region should enjoy a pleasant 4-5 days next week.  Parents will be pleased with this favorable break in the wet weather.

 

By late Fri Mar 25, the wx pattern will shift again into storm mode.  In fact, the storm now charting for Sat/Sun Mar 26,27 could be a decent wind producer, along with plenty of rain.  A double play may be in store, as a late Sunday storm could also bring on some wind & rain along with cooler temperatures.  

 

March will end with a couple of dry days before April arrives with moderate-to-heavy rainfall and breezy conditions.  Mountain snowpack will continue to build, as well.