The Weather Cafe ® by Rufus

Written by Rufus La Lone since 1994.

The Big Block

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday October 7
 
Fog and sunshine.  That’s about it for the next two weeks.  But, since you have a refilled Mug ready, we’ll go ahead with a few additional details.  
 
Yep, for many Patrons around the PNW, “foggy bottoms” will continue to greet you each morning, Mug in hand.  In some locations, the fog burns off early, so afternoon temps are pushing near or into the 80s; for many others, much cooler afternoons as that fog persists.  No change in the forecast is seen on the charts for the next 14 days.  The 'big block' is the reason.
 
A large, stationary High pressure ridge is BLOCKING any storms from their usual Fall track into the PNW from the Gulf of Alaska.  Surface Lows are, indeed, out there, but they are literally moving in circles, unable to track east.  There will be a slight adjustment Monday & Tuesday next week.  A Low will drop south out of the Yukon & Northwest Territories into MT, which may, just possibly, create enough pressure difference across the PNW to blow out the fog and let in more direct surface sunlight.  After that?  Bummer - bland, foggy bottom conditions will return to the region for another 10 days or longer.  Yikes.
 
Will October 2022 be one of the driest on record?  Too early for such a proclamation, although it will be close if the 'big block' is not removed.  It will be a long wait for Rain Watchers.  We must remain positive.
 
“Few cases of eyestrain have been developed by looking on the bright side of things."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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In A Word

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday October 3
 
That word is DRY.  At least your morn’n Mug is wet.
 
For the first half of October 2022, DRY is likely the word for weather conditions around the PNW & California.  Model solutions have been drifting away from rain returning by the 14th; rain may be held off through the weekend of Oct 15,16.  Geez.  There are a couple of model runs that begin a stormy period to the region after the 15th, one of which could be quite windy, esp over southern BC & NW WA on the 18th.  We’ll see about that.
 
For the next week or so, onshore breezes will be limited to late afternoon, so expect a bit of fog to burn off slowly, yielding to sunshine in the afternoons; temperatures will be mild.  October harvests should proceed without moisture or frost issues, although overnight lows may dip into the upper 30s east of the Cascades around Wed/Thu Oct 12,13, as a Canadian High drops south.  That High could trigger WINDY conditions in southeast OR and CA.
 
Bland is another word to describe our weather for the next couple of weeks.   
 
“You can no more blame circumstances for your character than the mirror for your appearance."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Dry Time

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday September 30
 
We end the ninth month of 2022 with a return to dry.  How long will this dry spell last?  Well, refill that Mug.
 
Indeed, another stretch of dry wx has arrived.  Drat.  We need rain.  Anyway, the long-range pattern keeps surface Lows (our PNW rain producers) twirling around in the Gulf of Alaska, never reaching our shores for the next 11 days.  Temperatures will remain at or above seasonal norms during this dry run.  
 
RAIN should return when the 1st of at least 3 cold fronts cross the PNW starting late Wed Oct 12.  The 2nd, notably stronger, pacific storm should arrive early Fri the 14th.  WINDY & quite wet, esp for NW WA and Vancouver Island.  Temps will drop.  Then, as the weekend of Oct 15,16 gets underway, the 3rd storm will slam into the PNW with plenty of wind & precipitation.  Let’s hope the models verify, and not push back these system to later dates.  Hazelnut harvest could be rather damp.
 
Another tropical system is charting to roll north off the Atlantic coast during that weekend, as well.  Way too early for details, of course, but the position of a High pressure ridge over the New England states should keep the hurricane offshore.  
 
<see our La Niña discussion below> 
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
 
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Friday September 30
 
SUPPLEMENTAL
 
As mentioned earlier this month, here’s a brief write-up on the 3rd consecutive La Niña fall/winter that is upon us.  (Please note, we do not wish to imply expertise on this subject; just a provider of a few interesting tidbits.   There are excellent online resources published by specialists on this topic.)  
 
The Event & Frequency
 
Short definitions: El Niño - when the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Tropical Pacific are a warmer than normal; La Niña - it’s the opposite, surface sea temperatures are below normal.  We refer to SST that are above, or below, normal as anomalies (aberrations, deviations).  
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   From Climate.gov/news:
 
  • El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of ENSO (pronounced “en-so”).
  • ENSO is the most influential natural climate pattern on Earth.
  • ENSO swings back and forth every few years.
  • El Niño and La Niña affect both the ocean and the atmosphere.
  • Periods of weaker- or stronger-than-average easterly trade winds initiate El Niño and La Niña. 
Presently, SST represent the 3rd consecutive active La Niña, a “triple dip” (note bright blue color in central tropical pacific).  Current readings are 2.2 degrees C (about 3.9 F) below normal, making this one of the ‘colder’ La Niña cycles on record and the third “Triple Dip” since the 1950.  A rare event, indeed.
 
 
Impact.
 
The illustration below indicates the ’typical’ affect La Niña has on winter weather across the US (source: Climate.gov/News).  Particularly, dry conditions over the desert SW & California; wetter than average winters for the PNW, which often includes lower than usual snow falls.  Of course, that is not always the case, but the pattern has repeated itself enough over many cycles to warrant the tentative forecast of general weather conditions, as we look ahead in the long-range outlook.  
 
Will late Fall of 2022 and Winter of 2023 meet that expectation?  Keep your Mug handy, as we continue to provide Patrons winter weather outlooks in the time frame necessary to ‘be prepared, just in case’.
The Weather Café ®️ enters the 28th year of operation in November.
 
 
-Rufus
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Waiting

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday September 26
 
The long dry spell across the PNW will continue a bit longer.  We await the transition to the fall rains.  Here’s the latest update in that regard.
 
Wet pavement time this week will likely be overnight Tue through Wed evening, but the total precipitation, but only a tenth to a quarter of an inch is expected on the west side; none to the east except far N Idaho.  Hence, the 'wet pavement’ call, not an irrigating level of rain.  The next period of notable rain is modeled to arrive 12 days from now - the weekend of Oct 8,9.  
 
Temperatures will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s throughout the next several days, aside from mid-week.  It will be cooler during the 'transition day' of Fri Oct 7.
 
A broad change in the upper-level wind pattern is expected to develop by Fri Oct 7, opening the door for Pacific storms to finally drape across the PNW, bringing the sound of rainfall back.  The weekend of Oct 8,9 looks wet, esp late Sat night through Sunday.  Rain/showers will also be in play as the following week gets underway.  We are cautious about this forecast, since there seems to be so many ‘false starts’ on the charts of late.   Still, wetting rains will return at some point; let’s hope for Sat Oct 8.  Cumulative precip between now and Oct 12 should be around 1.5-2 inches, nearly all of which will fall Oct 8-12.
 
Hurricane IAN will be the big national story this week, as it will likely impact western FL.  Landfall location for IAN will depend, to a large degree, on just where a High pressure dome moving into the upper Midwest positions itself by the time IAN approaches western FL.  This storm will be a very powerful hurricane.  We hope people heed the warnings and prepare while time is on their side.   
 
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THANK YOU Patrons, for the generous donations to the Walk to End Alzheimer’s on the 24th.  The Weather Café®️was recognized as the top fundraiser for the Mid-Willamette Valley.  Our total was $4,445!  This speak well of our effort to help find solutions to this horrible disease, and to provide support for patients.  Again, a warm Thanks.
 
 
Rufus & Paula La Lone
 
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-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Rain on the Far Horizon

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday September 23
 
Lots to cover today, so let’s start with a full Mug.  Ready?
 
Dry pattern across the PNW continues, with a cool ‘frontal boundary’ bringing in some cloudiness and maybe a shower over the far NW corner of WA & Vancouver Island today.  This will clear out as the weekend gets going.  High pressure will build in for a WARM weekend, esp by Sunday.  That ridge will hold into next week, so expect plenty of sunshine and WARM temperatures.  Yes, 90s are possible for portions of OR and southern WA, 80s in portions of the Puget Sound.  
 
Middle of next week: the current atmospheric pattern may begin shift on Wed the 28th.  We can expect a weak front to bring some precipitation mainly from north of Portland into BC.  There is a chance that this system will fizzle out and not be much of a factor.  Either way, it will cool off to a day or two.  By Friday, we expect that dry ridge of High pressure to again rebuild, ushering in another round of warm days.  
 
There is a Low that should track south off the PNW coast and have impact in CA for the first weekend of October.  Wrap-around moisture could move into southern OR for showers and/or thunderstorms on Sunday, and expand northward into WA by Monday the 3rd. 
 
Indications are for a series of systems to finally begin dotting the PNW will rainfall as that first week of October progresses.   The Oct 8,9 weekend looks WET, with much cooler temperatures arriving.  Fall.  Dare we believe?
 
????Topical Tropical: hurricane FIONA will strike Nova Scotia/Newfoundland Canada early Saturday with a ferocious blow - probably of historic damaging proportions.  The name GASTON was assigned to another Atlantic storm well out to sea; therefore, the tropical system that will enter the Gulf of Mexico later this week could be named HERMINE (or IAN, depending on activity just west of Africa).  This storm will be the first major hurricane to strike the US this season.  Projected landfall location of this likely Cat 3 storm has been quite variable, as expected.  The majority of model solutions target the west coast of FL, somewhere from the panhandle down to Tampa area.  We are keeping Patrons in FL well informed ahead of the crazy media blitz that will crank up this week.
 
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"Last Call”.  Tomorrow, your host will represent The Weather Café®️as a team member of the Mennonite Village retirement community here in Albany.  Café Patron donations are now at the $3,690 mark.  Let’s beat our goal of $4,000, shall we?.  Tomorrow's Mid-Valley's Walk to End Alzheimer’s event will be in Corvallis.  
Please consider a donation - here’s the link.  Thank you!!
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“When you help a person up the hill, you find yourself closer to the top."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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