We tip our Mugs in honor of our Nation’s Veterans.  Their service will always be treasured.  Weather for the next couple of weeks will be quite seasonal, with another COLD outbreak possible in several days.  Here ya go —

 

For this weekend and into next week - expect a little precip in the Willamette Valley today, but not much, as the system is stretched out off the coast, weakening any impact.  The associated Low will slowly ‘fill in’ as it tracks across northern CA, keeping the PNW on the dry side.  An east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will begin to increase by the start of next week because a weak High pressure ridge will build over the Continental Divide.  Winds will not be as strong as the last shot, but enough to move piled leaves around.  Cool temps, with plenty of sunshine likely Mon through Wed.  

 

A Modified Arctic Air mass may arrive in the PNW as next week ends.  This 'Yukon Dome’ (our term), could be COLDER than last week, if models verify.  High pressure will build during the week over the Yukon & interior Canada before dropping into the lower 48.  When we see barometric pressures over 1040 mb in Yukon, we subsequently have the potential for a cold outbreak in the PNW.  This doesn’t always happen because that cold dome may weaken or drop too far east to impact the PNW; however, we simply don’t get an Arctic Blast without a 1040+mb Yukon/Interior Canada Dome forming first.  Anyway, for now, we forecast the potential for colder weather to begin arriving late Thu night into Fri.  Fraser Outflow will develop first, then, as the cold air mass descents over eastern WA & ID, cold air will rush west out of the Columbia River Gorge.  A familiar pattern.  There will not be mid-level moisture associated with the leading edge of the cold front, so snow is not a real issue at this time.  It will be chilly, but dry, next weekend, Nov 19,20.  Temps in the 20s at night; 30s to 40s for daytime highs.  Sunny.  Strong winds over southern OR & northern CA on Saturday.

 

For the week of Thanksgiving:  a short-shot of surface snow or snow/rain mix before all rain is possible on Tue Nov 22 for NW WA only, as a warmer, WET pattern transitions into the PNW.  Depending on which model scenario plays out, for a day or two, most of the precip could be limited to western WA, maybe clipping NW OR from Salem north, before the whole region gets dripping wet as the holiday period progresses. Or, it may simply be wet everywhere.  The storms charting for the holiday period are likely to be quite wet and windy.  Normal for late November.  

 

Post-Thanksgiving week: temperatures are likely to cool down a bit, as storms moving in from the west-to-northwest will have lots of cold air support.  Great mountain snow period.

 

 

 

Soon, oh so soon, those political commercials and direct mail flyers will come to an end.   So, too, will the current wet cycle.  Let’s take a peek ahead.

 

Colder air continues to slowly work into the PNW.  Heavy showers today will begin to diminish - from north to south - over the next 36 hours.  Clearing & subfreezing overnight lows (20s) are on tap for much of this week.  Gusty E-to-NE winds will howl out of the Fraser Gap and Columbia Gorge, at times, the next few days, sending that cold air into western valleys.  Snow over the coast range and Cascades will also wind down soon.  Several areas in the Willamette Valley last evening (Sunday) had moderate snow showers, enough to whiten lawns, cars & roofs.  Early, indeed.

 

Frosty mornings and drier conditions will predominate the weather after Wed.  The chance for showers and/or snow showers late week has faded off the charts.  Therefore, we forecast dry and slowly moderating afternoon temperatures through the coming weekend.  The east wind should weaken by Sunday, so morning fog possible in the usual places.  For California Patrons: expect colder, wet weather moving in from the north.  Frosts possible in the Sacramento Valley later this week, if the infamous valley fog doesn’t form.

 

The week of Nov 14-18 looks DRY, with on/off east winds out of the Fraser & Columbia Gaps (definitely not as strong as this week).  Again, the cold air mass will moderate a bit, although models do show a continual ‘influence’ of colder air from interior Canada holding eastern basin temps rather chilly.  Normal.

 

Currently, a classic, stormy period may return again during the weekend before Thanksgiving, yielding to a mix of rain & dry days during the holiday week of Nov 21-25.  Probably rather stormy on Thanksgiving Day.  You know this will change some; nevertheless, we’ll throw out a forecast to get the ball rolling.

 

 

 

Are you ready?  Hold your warm Mug tightly.  A winter pattern is about to arrive, as is heavy rainfall & strong winds. 

 

Today through early Saturday expect rain to be steady & heavy.  While pinpointing the exact area the ‘jet stream’ will focus on may be challenging, the powerful mid-level winds will trigger major rainfall totals for a large swath of the PNW west of the Cascades.  Initially, the freezing level will also be high (~7,000 ft), which means much of that moisture early on in this event will NOT be held up in the mountains as snow.  Streams/Rivers will rise rapidly.  Localized flooding will be an issue.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches/warnings.  Furthermore, WIND today and this evening will be strong enough to topple trees or break limbs (many still holding ’sails’ - leaves), so power issues are probable.  A short break in the action is on tap for late Saturday, but by Sunday, another WET and COLDER system will drape over the PNW, adding to high water issues.  

 

COLD.  As the Sunday storm front passes, the coldest air of the season will flow in behind.  This will be enforced by a Yukon High pressure dome (modeled in the 1045-1050 mb range) which will shift south, setting up STRONG WINDS out of the Fraser River Gap first, then down the Columbia Gorge early next week.  Spokane will also experience powerful winds Mon & Tue.  Temperatures will be cold enough for SNOW down to very low elevations, if not the valley floor, if there is moisture in the area.  For now, the models track most of the moisture south into California following the Sunday front.  However, moisture spinning northeast from the Sunday Low (that will position itself just off the coast of southern OR), may present snow/rain mixed at the surface under showers that will form over western OR; accumulations not expected below 1,000 ft., as the ground will be rather warm.  That said, we will experience overnight subfreezing temperatures, esp in wind sheltered areas, once the air dry down on Tue.   Expect mid-20s overnight Tue & Wed, Nov 8,9.  HARD FROST.

 

The east to NE winds should diminish by Wed afternoon for all areas.  Temperatures will slowly moderate; fog may form late week.  Right now, the models are holding any moisture from another storm well off the coast for a few days.  That means the Friday threat for freezing rain in the Columbia Gorge is low.  Should the system track closer to OR, as was projected a couple days ago, frozen precip would be an issue.  

 

The weekend of Nov 12,13 is trending relatively dry, with an east-to-NE wind picking up just a bit, limiting fog formation.  The dry pattern may hold through Wed Nov 16, before systems slowly work their way closer & closer to the PNW from the west as the week ends.  Stormy conditions may return after Thu Nov 17.  

 

Overall, an early winter-like pattern is developing for the PNW.  We always monitor High pressure over the Yukon area as a precursor to cold snaps in the region.  The “Yukon Dome” expected next week is quite early.  If not already done, winterize irrigation/plumbing systems before Tue.  The short break late Sat may give you a muddy chance.  

 

A quip from the ’Net:  “My new SUV has a button that says, ‘Rear Wiper’.  I’m afraid to push it."

 

 

Boo!  Colder weather on the way, with the threat for snow/rain mixed over NW WA late in the forecast period.  Mug up.

 

The wet pattern will continue on & off for the next couple of weeks.  Key will be the positions of Low pressure ‘cells’ moving in from the Pacific along with a colder air mass pooling over the interior of BC.  For the next 24 hrs, moderate-to-heavy rain is expected over OR today, with showers & possible thunderstorms on Tue for all the region.  Clearing by Thu morning will mean FROST possible, both sides of the Cascades.  California will receive a bit of rain early this week, as well.  Another wet system moves into the PNW from the NW on Fri, so NW WA & Vancouver Is. will wet first.  Rain will spread into OR & ID overnight Fri.

 

The coming weekend looks to turn colder, as the back side of Friday's storm drops across the region on Saturday.  WET & blustery.  Overnight Sat, colder air will be combined with the moisture to set off snow/rain mixed showers, esp north of Chehalis.  Wow, that’s early.   Cold showers for the rest of the PNW, with snow levels dropping well below the passes from the central OR Cascades north.  A bit of drying on Mon the 7th before another Pacific storm arrives on Election Day.  This one could be interesting in that cold, ‘winter air’ will pool and be threatening to push out of the Fraser Gap, mixing with the moisture from the west.  Not saying a snow event, but it will be close temperature-wise for Bellingham north.  WINDY either way on Tue & Wed, Nov 8,9.  Rain will fall across the entire PNW, as well.  

 

There are two scenarios for what happens after Election Day.  Stay with us.  One scenario re-introduces the chance for colder air to push out of the Fraser Gap, keeping snow levels just above sea level in the far NW corner of WA, with a chilly rain elsewhere.  In addition, by the weekend of Nov 12,13, that cold air from the Yukon & interior Canada will rapidly flow into the central USA, setting of all kinds of rough weather, from WIND to SNOW in many places in the heartland.  For the PNW, that weekend is trending DRY and relatively mild, as the colder air heads east.  The other scenario keeps the PNW mild with a couple of STRONG WIND storms after Election Day heading into the weekend of Nov 12, 13; holding back that cold Fraser Outflow, with the snow flake tease, until Sunday the 13th and chilly afterward.  We’ll update all this as the time nears.

 

Bottom line: colder weather is possible in November.  Not too unusual, but compared to the very mild pattern in October, the change will be abrupt.  Pull the heavy coats out of the closet; they may be needed.

 

 

 

A decent pattern of rain, showers, sun breaks and mountain snow is now in place.  The specifics per day may adjust, but at least the west coast is out of the dry, blocking ridge issue and precip has returned.  Refill time.

 

Overall, the Puget Sound & southern BC will receive the brunt of the moderate-to-heavy rainfall over the next week, starting now, with a frontal boundary sagging over WA and OR as the day progresses.  The next system, which will be stronger & longer lasting, is on tap for late Saturday into Sunday.  This one will also bring precip to OR & ID, mainly 12-24 hrs later.  Also, COLD air will be abundant on the backside of this cold system, so expect SNOW level to drop well below Cascades passes after the front passes.  Halloween will be showery, blustery and quite chilly! Showers will prevail through Tue. 

 

! FIRST FROST is possible, if the sky clears in your location, next Tue, Wed and/or Thu mornings.  Use this weekend to protect plants that may be on the patio; detach hoses.  The next wet, but weak, system may clip the PNW late Thu into Fri, with a nice break in the action for the weekend of Nov 5,6.  FOG issues likely that weekend.

 

The week of Nov 7-11 is modeled to mirror the week before, with a WET, cold system dropping in from the NW overnight Sunday Nov 6 carrying plenty of precip, chilly air and mountain snow.  Raindrops will be heard on Election Day.  It could be wet through Wed; windy on the 9th, as well.  Clearing Thu, with relatively mild temps & fog again.  For now, we may see dry weather to end the week (Fri 11th) on through Sunday Nov 13.  Note that some model scenarios bring in windy, WET conditions that weekend, but the trend has been away from the damp solution.  We have time to finalize that forecast period.  Daylight savings time ends Sunday Nov 6.

 

There are always variations 'on the theme' when forecasting long-range.  However, the basic pattern in the upper atmosphere has turned favorable for what one would expect in the PNW during November.  Normalcy.  

 

From the ’Net: “To fix a broken Jack-O-Latern, use a pumpkin patch.”