Personal Note:  It is hard to believe that The Weather Café®️ was founded 30 years ago this week.  I was 41 years old.  Many Patrons have been with us since the beginning - our Cornerstones, if you will; some have passed away (including my first wife, Kay - married 46 years); still others have only recently become Patrons of this venture.  WELCOME.  The ‘staff’ - me, myself & I - have produced over 3,100 forecasts, plus Special Statements, radio interviews, presentations across the PNW and specialized help for traveling Patrons.  The forecasts are read by thousands around the PNW, and as far away as the United Kingdom & the Philippines.

—> Please post a note directly to rrufus@yahoo.com, if you like, as feedback for this free community service is greatly appreciated and motivating.  In the meantime, grab your Mug and catch the latest outlook.

Today, Monday Nov 4, will turn rather stormy with rain, wind and cool showers.  Tue will be a transition day into a short dry period, lasting through the balance of the week.  Take advantage of dry break!  Speaking of this week, the coldest nights of fall, to date, are possible later this week.  FROSTY.  Foggy, too, in the usual places.

Friday night will begin the transition back into an extended wet cycle.  The wet pattern could last through at least Nov 20.  Expect measurable precipitation every day for the entire period, some of which will present as moderate-to-heavy rain, lots of mountain snow, and wind.  Given nature's variance, we’ll simply suggest that the wettest days in the series ahead will be overnight this Sunday into Veterans Day, Tue night into Wed the 13th, Fri night Nov 15, and super wet Sunday, Mon, Tue Nov 17-19. 

After the 19th, we see the potential for a couple days of dry, chilly weather; possible frosty mornings.

New month, new forecast, so let’s get this done.  Mug full?

The tight Low pressure center we thought would roll onshore yesterday is delayed until today, hence plenty moderate rainfall, esp over western OR.  Breezy, as well.  Cold air aloft will combine with sun breaks this afternoon to set off possible thunderstorms, so be safe.  The weekend ahead looks to present showers, at times, along with some sun breaks.  Not all wet; but definitely not all dry either.  

To start next week, the charts present a rather strong storm system moving onshore over northern Vancouver Is, so expect WINDY conditions around the Puget Sound Monday morning, along with moderate rainfall.  The ’tail’ of the rain field will clip NW OR, as well, just not as wet.  Oregon should turn breezy later in the afternoon, with quite a strong westerly in the Columbia River Gorge, as that Low tracks east.

Dry Break.  All indications are for Tue next week to be generally dry & on the cool side.  Dry again on Wed and on through the rest of next week.  Temps will warm into a fairly comfortable range for November.  Enjoy.  Oh, possible foggy bottoms in the mornings, late week.

The first weekend of November will start out dry,  but then turn WET later on Saturday, with the “front line” of a series of WET Pacific storms moving into the PNW.   

The exact timing of the heaviest rain period has shifted around on the charts, however, we should expect a VERY WET BLUSTERY period starting as early as Veterans Day, Mon Nov 11, or as late as Wed Nov 13.  Either way, the wx models have indicated heavy rainfall for a few days, once the pattern get ’set’.  We will forecast the whole week - Nov 11 through Nov 15 as “buckets of rain” time.  Localized flooding (leaf issues on storm drains, etc) quite probable.  Stay alert & heed any Nat’l Wx Services watches, etc.

The weekend of Nov 16,17 also trends WET, although less so on Sunday.  Early yet to confirm this, of course. 

Typically, the PNW’s wettest months of year are November, December, & January.  Right now, a classic wet November pattern is likely this year.  

Plenty of rain, wind, and yes, sun breaks ahead as the 10th month of the year ends and the 11th begins.  Refresh your Mug and get back here.  

Showers today, decreasing by Tue, with a few turning into thunderstorms given the cold air aloft.  Mountain snow.  The next storm front is modeled for Wed.  This one will be start out rather mild when the warm front pushes onshore; turning quite wet and blustery as the cold front moves past..  

A secondary Low is now modeled to form right afterward, setting up a damp HALLOWEEN.  —> Note: there are indications that this smaller, tightly-packed Low will move onshore around the central OR coast later on Thu, with a rather powerful WIND FIELD along the south coast of OR, maybe a bit inland, too.  Trick or Treaters in OR are more likely to deal with showers than those in the Puget Sound area. (We may have jinxed Halloween in our last forecast - saying it was going to be dry.  Oops.)

It looks fairly dry Fri the 8th before a weak system moves in sometime Saturday, for additional rain/showers.  Earlier solutions held this system off until Sunday, but we suggest one prepares for wet conditions Sat.

Next week trends dry early, with some rain over Vancouver Island and the far NW WA area on ELECTION DAY.   Dry Wed Nov 6, but then BE READY.  What we will term as the first major fall storm pattern of the season is charting to arrive Thu Nov 7.  Heavy rain, WINDY Thursday through Saturday the 9th.  Localized flooding issues probable, esp given plugged storm drains.  A short break in the powerful storm(s) will happen Sunday Nov 10, as the rain field shifts into California.    More rain on tap for Mon Nov 11.  Sip.

Here’s when we may get our first notable region-wide WIND STORM of the fall.  Models are not conclusive this far out, but have indicated a large, deep Low pressure center developing in eastern Pacific, moving onshore along the southern BC coast.  The wind field from this storm could impact the PNW, along with additional heavy rainfall.  Please tuck this into your ‘what if’ pocket - lots can change by then.  Just know that strong fall storms are on tap to develop over the Gulf of Alaska, some possibly moving close enough to the PNW to get our attention.  Yep, it’s that time of year.

Last day of the week; last day of dry conditions for a spell.  Classic chilly late October morn’n at hand, so Mug up and read on.

A fairly small-scale Low pressure system is charting to arrive later this evening from the west, with most of the rain/wind impacting NW WA, southern BC.  Oregon will get some precip overnight tonight (Fri), as well.  Breezy.  Another, stronger system, charts to arrive Saturday night.  With plenty of cold air support, this storm will push a decent rain band inland as Sunday morning gets underway.  Blustery, with possible thunderstorm here & there around the PNW.  Notably cooler!  Snow level will drop in the Cascades, so expect several inches above the passes by Mon the 28th, as the Low center drifts south along the WA coast, moving onshore around Astoria.  Cumulative weekend precip range around 3/4" to 1.25", depending on your location.  

Next week will start out with lingering showers on Mon, with a short break Tue (leaf cleanup day), cool temps.  Next system will present itself on Wed Oct 30 with lots of moderate rainfall and another dip in the temperatures after the front passes.  Blustery day, as well.  Thu, Halloween, will be chilly & showery, as the storm’s center Low pressure moves onshore farther south than Sunday’s system - say, Lincoln City area - around noon.  Blustery.  Trick or Treat time should be dry, but quite chilly for the costume walkers.  Friday, the first day of November, looks dry until late night, as another weak storm moves onshore overnight into Sat.  Not much precip with this one.

Sat/Sun Nov 2,3 trends as dry & and a bit warmer than the previous several days.  Could be foggy Sunday morning.

Models have ’struggled’ with solutions for the early week of November, as we indicated previously.  Latest models runs keep it generally DRY and relatively mild from the first weekend in November through Tue Nov 5 - ELECTION DAY - except for the far NW corner of WA and Vancouver Island region on the 5th.  A small, tightly packed Low may move onshore over southern BC, draping a rain band across western WA overnight Tue.  Dry elsewhere on through the balance of the week, Nov 4-8.

Early yet, but the PNW could move into another wet/cold cycle around Nov 11, as the Pacific High could shift farther west over the Gulf of Alaska, setting up the potential for development of a 'Yukon Dome’ and lower elevation snow mid-Nov.  All conjecture, of course, but worthy of a ponder.

Monday October 21

Fairly dry week ahead, then a more steady supply of moisture arrives to wrap up the month.  Let’s take a gander, shall we?

Showers today will decrease overnight, yielding a decent week of generally dry, but chilly, weather.  Morning fog possible in the usual ‘foggy bottoms’ around the PNW.  While our expected shift into a steady wet pattern may start a day later than previous charts indicated, we do see a damp weekend ahead.

Indications are for our next organized Pacific storm to push onshore late Fri or early Sat, Oct 26.  This one will not be particularly strong, just a good wet system.  Breezy.  There should be a short break in the action during the early portion of Sunday the 27th, before another - more steady - damp pattern arrives.  And, this time, notably cooler temps will arrive.  Snow in the Cascades, possibly at or below pass level by Wed Oct 30.  Expect generally wet conditions all week, although heavy downpours are not charting at this time.  Yes, HALLOWEEN is looking chilly and damp. Quite normal for these here parts.

For the early part of November (beginning Fri the 1st), models have diverged from our earlier forecast - of course!  Now the charts indicate possible showers on Sat Nov 2, drying Sunday the 3rd, then, instead of heavy rain the next week, a dry High pressure ridge may form, blocking Pacific storms from entering the region through Nov 6.   We’ll see.  As long-time Patrons recall, models do REVERT back to earlier solutions when the actual period approaches.  So, for now, we will not “make book” on a forecast for early November.