Given the indeterminate chaos nationally & throughout the world, ironically, your host finds finds comfort in the uncertainty and variance of weather; not forgetting the comfort of a morning beverage.  Ahhh.  Got yours ready?

Pleasant weather ahead for the next week, before the potential for a couple HOT days after the 4th.  Today & the weekend will mirror the same period last week -> warm temps, plenty of sunshine; cooling on Sunday, as a weak trough passes ushering in morning clouds, primarily over the Puget Sound region. 

Warmer conditions will return next week, after the onshore flow that holds down our temps begins to weaken by Wed the 5th.  For now, we expect the 4th of July holiday period to be dry with temps likely in the 80s to lower 90s (southern OR; portion east side).  Many will take next Fri off - to make for a 4 day holiday weekend.  Well, the weather will remain dry, but temperatures are charting - on some of the models - to potentially be the hottest of the year, to date.  Temperatures could reach the upper 90s or triple-digits in the Willamette Valley, SW WA and the Tri-Cities.  If verified, the HEAT UP will extend north into southern BC.

Relief could arrive on Sunday or Monday July 7,8, if the Low pressure trough indicated on the charts moves south down the BC coast into the PNW.  In fact, showers are possible by Mon night into Tue July 9, esp north of Portland.  That would be a pleasant break from the summer heat.  Again, this forecast is not a certainty, but within the realm of ‘be prepared, just in case’.  

After that cool down, the pattern for Wed - Fri, July 10-12, returns to a dry, mild one, with morning marine clouds and plenty of sunshine inland from the coast.   

The weekend of July 13,14 looks dry & pleasant, as a notable onshore flow will provide the air conditioning.

Steady course, per our previous forecast, so we’ll simply point out the cooler, onshore flow times, with the understanding that the greater threat for precipitation will be around the Puget Sound during the ‘cool downs'.  Mug deal? 

Jun 24 - 28: On Wednesday, cooler with morning clouds and/or showers, esp Puget Sound region. 

Jun 29,30 weekend: Clouds return Sunday with precip chance in the north

July 1 - 5: Bit cooler on the 4th of July; chance for Puget Sound showers on the 5th.

July 6,7 weekend: very nice.

July 8 - 12: Partly cloudy Mon & Tue, then lots of warm sunshine.

Generally, temps will range from the mid-60s (cooler) to the upper 80s to low 90s (warmer).  Yep, Summer in the PNW.

Full summer mode now.  Will the weather cooperate?  ☕️ Let’s take a peek. 

For the rest of June, the overall pattern ahead remains that of an 'Up & Down’ mix of warm days & cooler ones with morning marine clouds (along with the chance for a stray shower or two, primarily over the Puget Sound region). 

Specifically, expect warm wx today & Satrurday, yielding to cooler temperatures Sunday & Mon, before the warmth returns next Tue & maybe Wed.  Then, temps drop again, with the returning chance for a few showers, north of Chehalis.  As noted, the end of next week will bring on another couple of warm wx afternoons - which could usher in a few 90s in western OR - before cooling on Sunday, Jun 30, to end the month.

July is charting to start with more persistent cool wx.  The cool trough (Low pressure) arriving Mon July 1 looks to be rather WET over the Puget Sound to start that week (1/8 - 1/4 inch of rain possible); OR should have more of a cloud even and ID looks damp.  Cool, morning-cloud-deck type of weather is charting for the 4th of July, with showers over the Sound on the 5th; dry for the rest of the PNW.  

Astronomical Summer starts this Thursday, as will a notable warm-up in the region’s temperatures.  Refill your morn’n Mug; time for our Monday update.

Cool temps will slowly yield to summer temps by the end of this week.  Currently, models have ‘done away’ with any threat for broad areas of precipitation during the next 10 days (exception - northern half of Vancouver Island next weekend).  The heat zone over the desert SW is modeled to briefly nudge to the NW by Thu & Fri, ushering in a short round of warm-to-hot temps for the PNW.   

Charts suggest a short cool-down over the coming weekend, as an onshore flow increases due to a weak Low pushing over northern Vancouver Island / SW BC.  Once that Low moves east, expect PNW temps to heat back up for another couple of days next Mon & Tue; then the pattern repeats.

Temps will drop some by Wed Jun 26 with onshore flow cooling down the region - pushing back at the heat trying to nudge in.  This time, the Low pressure trough could be strong enough to threaten showers around the PNW for a couple of days -> Thu & Fri Jun 27,28.

The last weekend of June 2024 continues to look partly cloudy, with a chance for showers (mainly the NW WA / Vancouver ls area).  Mild temperatures.  

As July gets underway, models suggest a couple days of HOT weather before another Low pressure trough presents an onshore flow by the 4th of July.  No bets just yet.  

Bottom line:  for the rest of June, regional temperatures will pop up & down like playing on a Pogo Stick.

Bit of an adjustment in the forecast, relative to our last report, so let’s review that change.  Mug time.

As expected, a cold Low will move its way into the PNW this weekend.  So, expect increasing clouds & cooler temperatures beginning later today, with showers likely Sat & Sunday.   Given the cold air aloft, scattered showers & thunderstorms are probable this weekend, with the Saturday being the wetter of the 2 days.  Still, not a complete washout.  

The good news is that the earlier modeled storm for Mon/Tue next week is not going to develop.  While we could catch a shower here & there early next week, generally it will be on the drier side, vs this weekend.  Mild temps.  Then, by mid-week, expect temperatures to begin to build up for a warm, even hot (east side) period from Thu Jun 20 through the following weekend, Jun 22,23.  Medford could tease out high 90s that weekend.

For the week of Jun 24 - 28 models are projecting an increasing onshore flow early, with a return to a Low moving in for increasing clouds and the chance for precipitation.  Indeed, the final weekend of June 2024 is trending rather chilly and DAMP.  Early yet on this, so expect another adjustment.

Bottom line: following a cool, showery period this weekend, we should have a decent stretch of WARM & dry weather for the better part of a week.