Snow before Rains Return

Winter ☃︎ weather continues to be our focus, at least for the next 8 or 9 days.  ☕️ Hot Mug all set, so here goes.

For this weekend, cold air remains in place, so the system arriving tonight will present as snow early, turning to snow/rain mix over southern Willamette Valley south (because of a weak warmer southerly breeze); should remain as snow north zones, but not too much - it is a weak system.  Turning dry and chilly for the rest of the weekend.

Next week it will continue chilly on Monday, then another modified Arctic Air mass will drop in sometime overnight Monday (yep, our ‘Yukon Dome' of >1040 mb is developing this weekend).  Expect both the Fraser & Columbia Gaps to have windy outflows (although NOT the torrent of wind like last time out the Fraser Gap).  Potential for the coldest nights of the season Tue & Wed next week - upper teens to lower 20s - esp in wind sheltered areas.  

As you know, all we need is moisture to roll in off the Pacific to set up another round of winter issues.  Such is likely to be the case Wed night into Thu, Feb 12,13.  Currently, model solutions indicate a nighttime arrival, esp over western OR, which could equate to cold enough surface temps for a notable SNOW event across western OR & SW WA.  Outflow from the ‘Gaps’ will increase as a Low approaches the OR coast — but right now, models hold that Low off the coast, increasing the chance for SNOW to continue through most of the day on Thu. We’ll see.  —> Puget Sound area may NOT get much moisture from this system, as it could remain too far to your south.  However, EAST WINDS will howl.  Burrrrr.

Dry on Valentine’s Day — BUT, another storm will be setting up for a mixed precip weekend.  Cold air likely to remain west side for a bit, so SNOW and our freezing rain possible in many locations early Sat, then southerly winds should push colder surface air out of the PNW by Sunday.  Lots of ‘ifs’ in this scenario, so stay tuned here, as there’s lots of time to update the outlook.

Either way it goes right after Valentine’s Day, we do see a return to milder temps and VERY WET February weather for the second half of the month.