White at the End of the Tunnel?

Friday January 24

Long tag line, but a notable change in the weather MAY be on the horizon.  Better Mug up, Patron; interesting trend on the charts to discuss.  All set?

Our lengthy DRY pattern will continue for another 6+ days.  There is COLDER air setting up to arrive this weekend.  Not a strong outflow event, but definitely a northeasterly component to the air flow, which typically brings on colder temps around the PNW.  That is what to expect this weekend.  In fact, by Sunday morning (& Mon), temps could drop into the upper teens in the Willamette Valley - or wherever there is shelter from the east wind.  It’s a 1036 mb 'Yukon Dome' that will shift southeast, drawing down colder continental air into the region.  East side likely to dip to the lowest temps, thus far, this winter.  NO MOISTURE.  Yet.

Next week, the cold air mass will work southward into CA, setting up the potential for showers over the FIRE AREAS of southern CA — a blessing for that region, for sure. In the PNW, temps will remain chilly & dry each day, although the afternoons could pop up into the 40s west side.  Foggy bottoms, at times, as the winds diminish by Tue, which may hold temps in the upper 30s for foggy locations.  

What’s this about The White?  Lots of social media & local weather geeks discussing the possibility for a snowy pattern sometime in Feburary.  Well, as you may guess, we are right in there with that “ponder point” for now.  This coming Thu, clouds will increase from the west, with RAIN possible by Fri morning, Jan 31.  We will stick with forecasting rain, for now, because the air mass ABOVE the surface will be warmer, the cloud cover Thu night will hold up temps, and there should be limited east wind to drop west side temps.  East of the Cascades, pockets of freezing rain - or snow - cannot be ruled out.  The system will NOT be a strong one, so we’re fairly confident in the forecast above for Friday.

Sat & Sun Feb 1,2 are presenting an outside chance for The White in western WA & OR, as colder, upper-level air will move in behind the rain band that passes by the last day of January.  Not much moisture left, so we cannot forecast a big snow event, just the chance for a skiff of snow or snow/rain mix.  Saturday night is the best chance for a dusting of snow.  We’ll see.

Week of Feb 3-7.  Snow?  Since our last report on Jan 20, wx models have suggested that a Low pressure system - modeled to move onshore Mon Feb 3 - would do so over northern CA, which would draw colder air behind it over WA, OR & BC, and thus open the door for The White.  Secondary systems were then charted to drop down the BC coast and usher in a notable winter snow event for the entire PNW Feb 3-6.  Total snowfall was running 2-6 inches.  Well, that has been dropped as of this morning, with the latest model solutions suggesting the LOW will move onshore farther north - over western WA, ushering in warmer air and cancelling the Snow Dreams of many.  On/off rain that week, with lowering snow levels are in the latest model solutions.  The Puget Sound could get snow/rain mix by Thu or Fri Feb 6,7.  

Ponder Point:  Knowing how rare it is for moderate snowfall west side, we will lean towards the later prognostication above for rain.  That said, we often see models revert to earlier solutions, as the calendar dates near.  Let’s see what develops - the CHANCE for a snowy week is not off the table completely.  

That said, the wet pattern of rain (or snow??) should continue into the weekend of Feb 8,9.  Drier as the second full week of Feb begins.

Bottom line:  A week from today, Fri Jan 31, should present the first rain since very early Jan.  This weekend will turn colder.  Then, we wait to see if The White is at the end of the dry January Tunnel.  Isn’t this fun??