Monday January 27
Winter may drop in soon, as in SNOW. Find the mittens & hot chocolate. Lots of details that could have impact. Ready?
Indeed, model solutions continue to hint at a winter event during the first full week of February, which should begin to set up this coming weekend. But first, another 4 days of dry weather. Strong east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will remain in play until Tue night. Looks like Thu night will begin the turning point from dry to wet & notably colder. The persistent blocking ridge of High pressure will erode away from the west with a front moving onshore across the entire PNW Thu night. Fri looks wet with a mild southerly wind temporarily warming valley floors.
The center of the Low ushering in the rain field will, essentially, shift N, moving onshore over southern BC late day Jan 31. This will spin colder air into the region from the Low’s ‘back side’. The Arctic cold air mass slowly working its way south out of the Yukon (yes, Dome pressure modeled at ~1048-1052 mb) will be the coldest of the season, setting up the possibility for surface snow or at least snow/rain mix Saturday night (Feb 1) into Sunday. That same Low will plant itself right off the coast of Vancouver Island by Monday, causing VERY STRONG WINDS down the Fraser Gap. Bellingham north be ready! The air will be quite cold, so play it safe when venturing outdoors early next week.
Moisture, picked up as that cold air flows over the eastern Pacific, could continue the threat for some SNOW or snow/rain mix showers through Monday Feb 3. Temperatures will be cold. The formally Yukon Dome will continue to become heavier, with pressure modeled at 1056 mb as the modified Arctic air mass moves into eastern WA, OR and over ID. Columbia Gap outflow will join the continuing blast down the Fraser River Gap late Mon into Tue. The Low we keep referring to will continue its slow move south, just off the coast of OR, as the week of Feb 3-6 progresses. Moisture may move inland at times, but right now, models keep the wetter bands around that Low offshore or moving into northern California (lots of RAIN and mountain snow in CA, even in the coast range north of the Bay area). Overnight low temps in the PNW will likely drop into the teens west of the Cascades in areas away from the gusty east winds. Double check that plumbing is winterized.
Late Thu night Feb 6, another system is modeled to drop south along the BC coast, ushering in moisture that could fall as SNOW, freezing rain, or rain, depending on west side location AND just how strong the southerly flow component for surface winds is as the Low drops south. The air mass should be cold enough for frozen precip, but where and for how long is uncertain this far out from the event (if it even develops). This snow, freezing rain, rain action should continue into Sat Feb 8. On Sunday Feb 9, a stronger storm is charting to move up from the southwest, ushering in a normal February moderate rainfall event. The transitions could be messy, esp where eastern outflow continues. Think Columbia Gorge & Fraser River.
Way too early to peg actual snowfall estimates, but some solutions present up to a couple inches of snow during the event in the valleys; more in the coast range. We’ll see.
Feb 10-Valentine’s Day looks quite WET & blustery, as storms are charting to line up and push onshore. Warmer.
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