POTENTIAL WIND EVENT - Western Oregon.  Issued Tue Dec 24.

-Rufus

=========

Monday December 23

Bullet forecast to get you back to holiday activity.

• Today: break in the rain, but only for several hours.  Expect rain & breezy conditions beginning tonight through Tue morning.  
• Christmas Eve:  Another break in the steady rain after the morning hours; scattered showers can’t be ruled out late afternoon.  
• Christmas Day:  Timing may shift, but right now, expect steady rain to move in sometime during the late morning hours — this storm will be a real drenching system, so HEAVY RAIN up & down the OR, WA, BC region can be expected beginning overnight on into the next day. WINDY!  
• Thu Dec 26:  Rain likely to continue, with a very brief let-up in southern OR.  Increasing moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Fri.  Localized flooding possible.  WINDS could present gust over 35-45 mph in OR; stronger at the coast.  
• Fri Dec 27:  Before daylight, WINDY in OR, rain turning to showers during the day.  Cooler.  Next system due in hours. 
• Sat Dec 28:  Moderate-to-heavy rain in western OR.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Localized flooding probable.  
• Sunday Dec 29:  Continued moderate-to-heavy rain.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Increasing flooding concern.  
• Monday through Wed, New Year’s Day - showers diminishing, but notably colder.  Frost possible New Year’s Eve night.  Caution.
• Thu Jan 2 - Sun Jan 5: Colder.  Chance for rain Friday.  Saturday system wet and possibly turning cold enough for a rain/snow mix at the surface; snow in the hills.  Chance for snow showers Sunday.  

Bullet forecast to quickly get you back to holiday activity.  

• Today: break in the rain, but only for several hours.  Expect rain & breezy conditions beginning tonight through Tue morning.  
• Christmas Eve:  Another break in the steady rain after the morning hours; scattered showers can’t be ruled out late afternoon.  
• Christmas Day:  Timing may shift, but right now, expect steady rain to move in sometime during the late morning hours — this storm will be a real drenching system, so HEAVY RAIN up & down the OR, WA, BC region can be expected beginning overnight on into the next day. WINDY!  
• Thu Dec 26:  Rain likely to continue, with a very brief let-up in southern OR.  Increasing moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Fri.  Localized flooding possible.  WINDS could present gust over 35-45 mph in OR; stronger at the coast.  
• Fri Dec 27:  Before daylight, WINDY in OR, rain turning to showers during the day.  Cooler.  Next system due in hours. 
• Sat Dec 28:  Moderate-to-heavy rain in western OR.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Localized flooding probable.  
• Sunday Dec 29:  Continued moderate-to-heavy rain.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Increasing flooding concern.  
• Monday through Wed, New Year’s Day - showers diminishing, but notably colder.  Frost possible New Year’s Eve night.  Caution.
• Thu Jan 2 - Sun Jan 5: Colder.  Chance for rain Friday.  Saturday system wet and possibly turning cold enough for a rain/snow mix at the surface; snow in the hills.  Chance for snow showers Sunday.  

There are lots of gatherings, parties, shopping, and general ‘moving about’ the next several days, and it’s well known that weather can impact plans  —>> Lots of ACTIVE weather coming, so be aware and be prepared!!  December 2024 will close out with a "slam, bam, thank you m’am” before we probably enter the ‘freezer’ in January 2025.  Let’s take a peek.  Mug time.

Rain returns as astronomical winter begins tomorrow, Dec 21, and a fairly weak front moves on by.  The next system arrives promptly on Sunday, with plenty of rain.  Wetter still will be a strong storm pushing into the PNW late Mon Dec 23.  Patrons traveling the region may catch a break in the rain during the main portion of the day Monday.

Christmas Eve: the strong storm noted above will be departing, so we catch another break before a drenching storm arrives during Christmas Day.  Models indicate a second Low will rapidly develop overnight Dec 25 into Thu Dec 26 with the potential for POWERFUL WINDS, depending on the track and depth.  Update here Monday.

Friday Dec 27 will be wet.  A system is modeled for landfall along the central OR coast before sunrise Saturday Dec 28.  WIND may be an issue south of Salem.  Again, stay tuned.

The last weekend of 2024 is trending showery with temperatures dropping.  Rain/snow mix possible in the Puget Sound overnight Sunday into Mon Dec 30, as cold air begins to infiltrate from the NW.  A Yukon Dome over 1040 mb is modeled to develop and begin shifting south as the year ends.  This may have IMPACT on the entire west coast in early January.

Conditions currently look rather calm & chilly for New Year’s Eve.  

Some model runs move Arctic Air into the PNW before Jan 2, others delay until Jan 3 or 4, with cold rain Thu morning Jan 2, turning SNOWY to end the week, Fri Jan 3.  Either way, expect WINTER to arrive with a blast of modified Arctic Event to start the New Year.  VERY COLD pattern, with powerful winds out of the Gaps - Fraser & Columbia.  Subfreezing temps.  Prepare during your time off to protect business and home plumbing.  

Getting out of these Arctic Events always causes issues with snow & freezing rain.  Let’s see if this develops, as charted the past couple of days.

Good news is that daylight will slowly last longer starting Sunday!  Winter Solstice 2024 is tomorrow, Saturday Dec 21. 

Already half way through the last month of 2024, with the big year-end holiday period coming up.  Our tag line hints about the change in the forecast, a given lately.  The awaited extended dry period has been pushed away in the latest series of model solutions for the remainder of the year.  Let’s take a look.

Moderate RAIN today & Tue, with gusty winds at times.  Turning showery on Wed; temps seasonal.  LOTS of mountain snow, so be aware if traveling over the passes.  Thursday should be mostly dry around OR, but rain will continue across the Puget Sound region & Vancouver Island.  Drier still on Friday (with Vancouver Is. continuing wet) as the eastern Pacific begins to ‘fill’ with a series of storms.  Note an east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will likely be strong Thu - Sat for Troutdale east.

The weekend: a quick shot of rain on Saturday can be expected over southern OR / northern CA; the rest of the PNW may be mostly dry with a scattered shower here & there.  Windy across the Sound.  Additional precip now charting for Sunday, although daylight hours may be mostly a cloud event instead of rainy.  Cooler.  Overnight Sunday into Monday will be wet.

Christmas Week:  what was hoped to be a dry start to the long holiday week is now off the charts.  Expect moderate rain Mon the 23rd, as a deep 970 mb centered Low will track over Vancouver Island around 10 pm Mon, with plenty of gusty winds around the region, esp in the evening.  Christmas Eve should be dry, as well early Christmas Day before a wet system arrives.  Rain band pushes onshore north-to-south overnight Christmas Day into Thu. Very wet for Vancouver Is.  Additional rain on Fri the 27th.  Some model runs bring lots of rain in on Christmas Day.  Right now, we’ll say that kids may get a few hours of dry outdoor playtime.

White Watch:  per above, snow on Christmas Day is just not in the outlook for 2024.  

Weekend after Christmas is trending very wet, with the potential for a strong storm late Sat Dec 28.  This system could be similar to the one expected on the 23rd.  Model solutions are quite varied, of course, but the Low could rapidly deepen as it moves ‘inside the 130W’ while tracking toward Vancouver Island.  We will monitor closely, as some model runs track this particular storm farther south, which could usher in a notable wind event.  Quite stormy for northern CA, as well, with gusty winds from a separate Low moving into the Golden State overnight Sat.

May be dry the last 2 days of December 2024.

New Year’s Eve:  early yet, but we may enter a cold snap, with strong east winds out of the Fraser & Columbia Gaps.  Stay tuned.

Friday the 13th, December

Overall pattern has changed yet again, as is common in ’these here parts’.  Friday morn’n beverage ALWAYS tastes good. All set?  

To lead off, the main focus today & Sat will be just how strong the wind gusts will be.  The Pacific storm that we have went on-and-on about is approaching the PNW coast.  It will be a fairly strong system - models peg the center pressure at a moderately low 973-975 mb as it comes onshore over northern Vancouver Island.  Yes, just ‘inside the 130W’.  While the WA & OR areas will not be slammed too hard by the wind field, please note that gusts in the 30-40 mph range inland west of the Cascades will be likely.  Higher for Vancouver Is Patrons.  Hold your hat time.  A few isolated power outages should not be ruled out.  Coastal wind gusts a bit higher, per usual.  RAIN will be rather steady today through much of Saturday.  Oh, forgot - - the wind field will be delayed a bit with strongest gusts likely later Saturday.   Cool Sunday, with a few scattered showers early.

Monday & Tue Dec 16,17 next week look WET & breezy.  The long-lasting ridge of High pressure that we noted in the last discussion is now modeled to set up a day later, so Wed Dec 18 may still have a shower or two hanging around the PNW.  Expect DRY conditions to set up on the 19th, with east wind out of the Columbia Gorge pushing away any fog threat north of Salem; southern Willamette Valley MAY have periods of fog again.  Dreary Drat.  Strong east winds will prevail out of the Columbia Gorge mid-week, weakening by Sat Dec 21.  UP goes the heating bill!  (Note: Patrons on Vancouver Island (yes, we have several) are likely to have a few days of rain, esp over the northern half of the island.). There are a couple model runs that indicate rain the whole week of Christmas, but those charts are limited.  Just say’n.

Extended dry period (for December anyway) remains charted for Thu Dec 19 through daylight hours Christmas Day.  Expect moderate-to-heavy rain arriving after dark Christmas Day - from Brookings to Ketchikan.  A second storm follows on Fri Dec 27.

The primary change in the long-range forecast is that it will not be so wet next week.  We are keeping an eye on High pressure dome action around the North Pole - post Santa’s night.  Will the New Year usher in a cold snap?  Worth a ponder.

Another quip from a Community Center sign just west of Denver:  “Your debt will stay with you if you can’t budge it."