The WxCafe™

Two To Go

Posted by Rufus La Lone on May 06, 2024

Monday May 6

Only two damp, chilly days to go until --> ☀️ Lots of Sunshine ☀️

A long-waited WARM-UP arrives soon. But first, cold air moving in today - Monday - presenting showers & thunderstorms across much of the region. On & off peaks of sun between the showers, but the air will remain quite chilly for May. That all changes abruptly on Wed May 8. High pressure ridge begins to build up over the PNW, ushering in the WARMEST stretch of weather thus far in 2024!

Indeed, sunshine returns, with warming each day later this week. Current projections are for temps on Fri & Sat popping up into the 80s. (Some model runs even hint at a chance for a 90+ here & there about the PNW.) The coming weekend looks absolutely awesome. Dry & warm. Temps may tap down a few degrees come Sunday, as onshore flow increases. Lots of pink faces possible at work or school come next Monday the 13th, but oh the joy of outdoor warmth & sunshine.

Right now, we see the dry period continuing through the week of May 13 - 17. The onshore component will hold temps in the pleasant zone (not too hot, not too cold) all that week. There should be a notable west wind up the Columbia River Gorge - go windsurfers!

With some variation, models do project a return to showery, cool conditions around Sunday or Monday, May 19,20. However, that downturn may be short-lived, as high pressure is on the charts to rebuild an onshore push by Wed the 22nd, for a return to pleasant conditions.

A quote used in 2009: “Men fight for freedom and then start making laws to get rid of it."

-Rufus

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Five More

Posted by Rufus La Lone on May 03, 2024

Friday May 3

That’s right, there is hope for the return of Spring. Five more days before the ’turn’. Dare we Mug up for that?

Rather than tracking well to the west of the PNW coast - as expected several days ago - the Low pressure center of our weekend storm will make ‘landfall’ over southern OR/northern CA overnight Saturday. The result: plenty of STEADY RAIN across much of OR, with WA state getting less of the precip. Looks like over an inch of rain is possible for western OR, esp south of Portland starting later this afternoon and lasting through Saturday morning. Showers will follow late Sat into Sunday, as will a drop in afternoon temperatures. This system is NOT a big wind producer. East side locations, and ID, will be wet, as well. Good moisture for dry-land farming.

Cool, damp conditions will continue to move onshore from the NW into the early part of next week, then, models chart the much-awaited return to DRY & WARM wx for several days. 🌸🌼Wed May 8 will be the turning point, so expect plenty of sunshine and gradually warmer afternoons as next week comes to an end.

☀️Weekend of May 11,12 is looking delightful! Sunny. Warming into the 70s for most locations.

Dry wx will continue into the week of May 13 - 17, with a couple days of possible showers & thunderstorms over the eastern OR & ID basins Mon & Tue. Regionally, temps are likely to cool down a bit, into the 60s. The northern half of Vancouver Island may get showers returning late week, as a weak Low moves onshore over coastal BC. Increasing chance for some cloudiness for north Puget Sound.

The dry pattern should hold on through the May 18,19 weekend, with temperatures warming a few degrees, compared to Thu & Fri.

Overall: roughly 5 more days of wet weather around the PNW, then - hopefully - an extended dry, mild wx period arrives. We’re Mug ready!

“Time is what passes rapidly between the easy monthly payments."

-Rufus

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Opposite Outlook

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 29, 2024

Monday April 29

Our Monday Mug tag line may garner Patron curiosity, so refill that Mug and read on for the explanation.

Of course, Nature has a way of doing its ‘own thing’ verses what weather models project. Forecasting from long-range models does, indeed, elevate the risk of being wrong, We are never afraid of such error, but it does frustrate many Patrons that plan activities based on our forecasts, only to have actual weather conditions go the opposite way.

As you know, we have been speaking of a reasonable stretch of 5-6 days of sunny, warm Spring weather coming soon. Well Patron, the latest model solutions have drifted away from that forecast by indicating COOL, damp conditions being the primary solution for the next week and a half. Sometimes, the model scenarios do shift back to earlier solutions, so there is always hope. Dare to read on?

Cold air aloft will be the rule for the next 48 hrs, so expect showers, some developing into thunderstorms with small hail, wind gusts, and lightning. Soil temps will not warm. On Wed May 1, daylight hours should be mostly dry and a bit warmer, although another shot of rain/showers will arriving overnight into early Thu morning. Clearing on Thu, with additional warming and more sunshine on Friday. Temps should rebound into the 60s. Soils will begin warming.

The coming weekend is looking rather damp, but mild (60s) in the temperature dept. A Low will move south off the coast of OR, with ‘wrap-around’ clouds & moisture moving north from interior CA & NV, with the chance for thunderstorms included. Sunday will be the wettest day, with that moisture moving up over most of WA & ID, as well.

The week of May 6 - 10 looks damp & mostly cloudy, turning a bit cooler mid-week. No dry warm-up is indicated now until - maybe - Fri May 10. The weekend of May 11,12 is now trending DRY and warm (upper 60s to mid-70s).

Chilly, wet condition return AGAIN on Monday May 13 for another round of below average temps and showers at least through mid-week.

Bottom line: per current charting, the soonest a run of 2-4 days of dry, warm wx will not arrive until after May 9. Cumulative Heat Units (Day Degrees) will likely remain below normal for early May.

“If we saved civilization in two world wars, we wonder where it is hiding now."

-Rufus

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Approaching 80

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 26, 2024

Friday April 26

The coming dry cycle may present temperatures approaching 80 degrees. Read on for the when, where, and what wx arrives beforehand.

Briefly, expect clouds, plenty of showers and peeks of sunshine from now on through the last weekend in April; most of the precip will fall north of Chehalis, but all west side locations will be damp at times. Temperatures will remain cool for late April.

The next dry day will be Wed, May 1st, following clearing from the north late Tue Apr 30. The latest model solutions have pushed aside the possibility for additional showers returning on Thu May 2 and opened the door for a high pressure ridge to begin building over the PNW, meaning dry, warm wx conditions heading into next weekend May 4,5. Again, some model runs keep showers around heading into the first weekend of May, but we are seeing a trend toward an extended dry cycle, so that’s our call, right or wrong.

Broadly, looks like sunny, warm Spring afternoons starting May 2 or 3, lasting on through Wed May 8. Temperatures will likely pop into the upper 70s, even 80+ for some western OR locations sometime in the May 5 - May 7 period. Slightly cooler temps return on Thu May 9, as a wet Low moves into the PNW from the west. Mild, but showery, Fri May 10, with a pleasant Sat to follow. Clouds increasing Sunday the 12th, with rain moving in from the north as that weekend ends.

The timing of these patterns can change, but for now, plan on a nice stretch of 5 or 6 warm days coming soon.

“Lots of folks think a balanced diet is a hamburger in each hand."

-Rufus

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Typical Mixed Spring Pattern

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 22, 2024

Monday April 22 - Earth Day

Please allow a moment of reflection - - -

The first Earth Day was ‘declared’ on this day in 1970. Spawned by the oil spill off the Santa Barbara coast and pollution from heavy industry around the world, the call for elevating awareness of negative environmental impacts by careless management of Earth’s air, water and land was the focus of Earth Day. Agreed, there are extreme points of view / approaches per this topic, but globally, folks of all persuasions & occupations began working together to make vast improvements in protecting key aspects of Earth’s environment. Your host, living in the Pierpont beach community of Ventura CA at that time, clearly recalls oil globs stuck on surfboards and feet (sea animals, too) following the 1969 California oil spill. Finally, Oregon's Willamette River got cleaned up, as did many other bodies of water, including Lake Erie; so did the excessively smoggy Los Angeles basin. Enough already.

Excellent Spring wx to start this week, before the PNW will return to cool, damp conditions for a few days. Afternoon temps are likely to top the upper 60s to mid-70s at some point between now and Wed. A cold front will begin to move into the region later on Wed, so expect clouds to increase, temps to drop and at least a quarter of an inch of rain by late Fri.

Partly cloudy, with temps a few degrees warmer this Sat, before the next round of precip begins to move onshore, north-to-south, on Sunday. It does, indeed, look damp over most of OR, WA, BC (both west & east sides) Mon & Tue next week week. Idaho, too. Calif should remain dry. By Wed, conditions will slowly improve ushering in 3-4 day stretch of dry, mild weather to get the month of May started.

Saturday May 4 is currently trending very nice! Temperatures rebounding into the 70s for nearly everyone, north or south, as a large Low moves south off the coast towards California. Said Low will also spin a warm ‘rain band’ into OR & WA sometime This type of pattern often produces warm afternoons, with humidity a bit higher than usual. Sunday - Cinco de Mayo - should present increasing clouds with a chance for rain or showers, although temps will remain warm.

For the week of May 6 - 10, model projections bring in plenty of rain, with an elevated chance for thunderstorms moving from south-to-north, as the Low mentioned above pushes into CA, spinning moisture across much of the Golden State, along with the PNW (both sides of the Cascades). We project drier, mild weather to begin on Thu May 9, lasting into the following weekend. For now.

“To error is human; to forget, routine."

-Rufus

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