Our package of “classic fall storms” - which we have been discussing since Oct 4 - is about to be delivered.  Finally.  The delayed arrival of the storms mirrors packages arriving at the door later than first expect.  Mug up, Patron, as regional wx could turn very interesting. 

 

Basis & Background: a long-awaited large, cold pool of air over the Gulf of Alaska is about to be ‘deployed' by Nature.  Subsequently, the contrast of cold/warm, combined with a very strong ‘jet stream’ overhead, will set up the potential for waves of Low pressure centers to deepen rapidly as they approach the PNW.  Historically, when deep Lows cross the meridian 130W line of longitude - just west of our coastline - WIND STORMS can be an issue.  There is an outside chance that such may be the case in the Oct 21-30 period.  The area of concern will be between northern CA and Vancouver Island / SW BC.  Model solutions vary considerably regarding just how close these Lows will approach the coast, and if they do cross the 130W line, where would their centers make landfall, if at all.  Some may spin north into Haidi Gwaii of BC, or track directly into NW WA, OR or even northern CA.  More than one storm will have this potential.  In the past, there can be 2 or 3 such systems in series, with one of them making a major impact somewhere in the PNW.  Again, this is background and conjecture based on what model solutions are now presenting as POSSIBLE.

 

The week ahead: expect a front to arrive overnight Tue, with rain & breezy conditions from northern CA to BC. Rather windy in far northern CA & Brookings. This will be followed by the remnant of Typhoon Namtheun - with a very deep Low center of pressure (956-964 mb ??) on Thu.  Don’t be alarmed.  Models track the center OFFSHORE towards Haidi Gwaii, so WINDS will be powerful over portions of Vancouver Is, missing the lower PNW areas.  BC Patrons be ready!  Coastal areas will be windy.  We will get RAIN, but not strong winds, if the system tracks as expected.  Friday brings on another much weaker system into northern CA, southern OR; damp up & down OR & WA.

 

The Oct 23,24 weekend:  a strong system (977-986 mb?) is likely to develop in the manner discussed in background above, with a path towards southern OR or northern CA overnight Sat.  California Patrons should be prepared from the Bay area north for strong winds, just in case.  The rest of us will get some rain/showers.  IF the weekend storm tracks farther north, well, stay tuned - this would impact OR the most.  

 

Monday night / Tue, Oct 25,26:  The storm in this period has the potential to be serious if it tracks far enough south over Vancouver Is.  Low pressure in the 970s possible.  We must watch this development.  Heavy rain & windy, either way Mon night through Tue.  

 

The Big One???  Thu, Fri Oct 28,29: Another powerful storm is charting - this one may be the most impactful of the series, if is crosses the 130W and makes landfall over central Vancouver Is.  Some solutions drop the center pressure below 966 mb!  We do not expect this outlier level to be met, but the trend is for the pre-Halloween storm to be POWERFUL.  WIND & heavy rain across the entire PNW and northern CA, followed by lowering snow levels, with possible snow in the coast range later on Fri (yeah, OR too).  

 

FROST Halloween morning is possible, should the sky clear in your location.  Dry pattern for a few days, before cool rains return by mid-week, early November.

 

Bottom Line:  these storms are not promised to be major wind events, but each has the potential.  Very windy & WET, yes.  That said, historically, the attributes of the atmosphere discussed in the 2nd paragraph above are what need to be ‘in play’ for our region to get major wind events.  After Wed, all will be.  Hence, the concern is warranted.  Power issues are probable during any one of the storms noted above, let alone to potential for 2 or 3 back-to-back.   PLEASE BE PREPARED, just in case.

 

—> We will post Special Statements should conditions verify going forward.  

 

 

Commentary from the ’Net:  “Why do I press ‘1’ for English when you’re just going to transfer me to someone I can’t understand anyway?"

 

 

Ah, so we have your attention with the tag line today — good. Mug time.

 

Split pattern, in a manner of speaking, for today and Sat, with the rain/showers trailing over western WA, roughly north of Chehalis.  Oregon and the eastern zones will be dry and mild today & Sat.  By late Saturday evening, the stretched-out front offshore will slowly move over OR and northern CA.  Expect Sunday to be on the damp side for OR, WA and BC.  Not much of that moisture is likely to reach the eastern basins.  

 

Monday will turn out mostly dry, as will Tue.  Models vary a bit on the timing & strength of the next system due in sometime overnight Tue or early Wed.  This disturbance may end up being a dud, as the front may simply stretch out and thus weaken so much that only clouds result inland.  We’ll see.  

 

Now the fizzle. The development of a broad low pressure trough over the Gulf of Alaska has been shifting later & later the past week or so.  We still see an extended, stormy pattern eventually making its way into the PNW, but WHEN? 2023?  Seriously, right now, models have fizzled it almost completely away next week, keeping everything basically offshore and moving south over the Pacific, before edging slowly towards the PNW for plenty of wind & rain.  Dare we try a forecast again?  Sure, easy with a good Mug full - -

 

Here goes: after the weak system the middle of next week, expect the weather across the PNW to turn mild & pleasant for fall.  Fog may be in play in the usual places early each day from Thu into the weekend of Oct 23,24.  A ‘break away’ Low may spin showers into southern OR (possible thunderstorms, too) late Fri into Sat Oct 22,23. Then, Sunday night the 24th, the first storm gets close enough to bring on some rain & brisk winds later Mon into Tue, Oct 25,26.  We should also mention, there are solutions that hold off all this action until even later, keeping that weekend mild & dry before the heavy rains & wind arrive the week of Oct 25-29.  Confused yet?  

 

We provided a ‘heads-up’ about the opportunity to witness an Aurora Borealis from right here in the PNW last Monday night, Oct 11.  Well, here are 3 stunning views of the ’Northern Lights’ from around the PNW.  All images used with permission from the photographers: Randy Small (Lynden), Don Feltham (Puget Sound, Edmonds), Clifford Paguio (Crown Point Vista House). Thank you, gentlemen!

 

 

 

Mixed pattern ahead, with the very wet cycle still teasing us on the charts.  Let’s preview the outlook.

 

Generally, dry today with the coldest air of the season aloft.  Therefore, frosty tomorrow morning in many areas on both sides of the Cascades.  Another weak system will bring additional rain/showers later Tue night, along with a bit more SNOW at pass level & higher.  Wed could be cool with sun & showers.  Thu is looking mostly dry before the next weak system moves onshore from the NW sometime Fri (this one may only impact areas north of Portland).  Windy across northern CA today and tomorrow.

 

Weekend ahead, Oct 16,17: expect rain to arrive late Sat into early Sun for most western locations north of Salem.  The upper lever winds (jet stream) are aimed at the PNW in a relatively straight line from west-to-east, centered over WA/BC (what is commonly referred to as a ‘zonal flow flow’).  Therefore, OR is most likely to miss much of the cumulative precipitation over the several days.

 

Starting next Sunday, models now build a high pressure ridge over the western US that will NOT easily yield to the cold air mass trough that will develop over the Gulf of Alaska.  Hence, the series of windy, rainy storms we have projected may not arrive until Thu Oct 21.  The storms will essentially be stretched out north-to-south and thus weakened, as they gradually break through that blocking ridge.  Still, we see notable RAIN and WINDS coming into play in the Oct 21-28 period.  Before hand, expect dry weather Sunday afternoon Oct 17 through Wed Oct 20.

 

Special Note: if the sky does clear in your area tonight, Patrons in northern WA & BC may get the chance to witness AURORAS.  Geomagnetic storms may hit the earth today, setting up this opportunity to see ’northern lights’.  Worth a peek, for sure.

 

 

 

Greetings, Patron.  The wx models have kicked the ‘stormy wet can’ down the road, much like the elected wizards in Washington DC.   At least a fresh morn’n bev keeps us fueled up for the day.  

 

Overall, the very wet, windy pattern, which we have been forecasting here, has been delayed for about week.  Sure, there will be a few storm fronts pass over the next 7 days, but not the classic strong, windy type we have been anticipating.  

 

Today’s system is weak, with a short break early tomorrow.  By Sat evening, another, stronger storm will rapidly move in, bringing rain & wind (rather strong winds Puget Sound, north), and falling temperatures.  Lingering showers should be around on Monday, with a chilly & dry night.  Snow in the mountains at pass levels & higher.  Tuesday morning is likely to be the coldest of the season for many locations, if the sky clears in your area.  Frost possible.  WINDY over northern CA Mon & Tues.

 

As next week progresses, the storm track will shift north, taking the rain/showers at times north of Chehalis on into BC and leaving the bulk of Oregon dry & mild Thu & Fri.  FOG is likely to be a morning issue for OR.  Weather for the weekend of Oct 16,17 is still uncertain, although the trend is now for dry, mild conditions on Sat, increasing clouds/shower over western WA & BC on Sunday.  

 

The Wet Can: the models have delayed that large, cold pool of air over the Gulf of Alaska from developing until sometime the week of Oct 18-22.  Therefore, we will expect the heavy rain & gusty winds to arrive later that week.  When this happens, it will be quite wet over the PNW for several days.  Dare we believe?  We all recall that often the Nature’s actual pattern ends up matching earlier model forecasts. 

 

 

 

OK, so the tag line has your attention.  So, too, does that Mug full of your fav morn’n bev.  

 

Yes, there is a high probability that some ‘wham bam’ weather is on the way to the PNW soon.  Sorry to use such a technical, meteorological term so early on a Monday, but hey, Mug up, you can handle it.  Seriously, the period of Oct 13-20 continues to chart several classic fall storms striking the PNW.  Overall, a broad, Low pressure pattern will center over the Gulf of Alaska, with that battle zone between cold & warm air masses setting off powerful surface storms in the Gulf.  These systems will roll right into BC & the PNW (and, subsequently, across the lower 48 for some wild, news-making fall wx).  What about this week?  Sip on.

 

A system will spin into our area by Tue morning, so expect winds to increase, along with some precipitation.  While not a strong disturbance, it will cool down the region and add another dusting of snow to the higher elevations of the Cascades.  Thu morning is likely to be the coldest one thus far this fall.  Some areas, mainly east side, could be frosty if the sky clears.  Friday will be another mixed day, with a weak system arriving for some showers here and there.  

 

Saturday will be cloudy and with a few showers from roughly Chehalis north; OR, along with the eastern basins, should remain dry.  This coming Sunday, Oct 10 begins the transition into that classic stormy period mentioned above.  A rather cold air mass moves down from the NW, bringing rain/showers, mountain snow (below pass level possible) and the COLDEST TEMPS of the fall season thus far.  

 

Classic Storm Time.  Monday the 11th will be mostly dry, wear-a-coat chilly.  It will continue to dry out & chill down by Tue morning Oct 12.  A FROSTY MORNING is likely, if the sky clears in your area.  Protect patio plants.  California & NV Patrons (yes, we have hundreds) will experience high winds.  Wed the 13th will be WET and blustery in the PNW.  A Low is modeled to move close to the coast, but never make ‘landfall’, so expect dampness and blustery conditions to hold into Fri.  (This system has been modeled, at times, to be rather windy, however, the trend is to keep it offshore and not as ‘deep’ a Low.)  HEAVY RAIN, with notable winds will be the calling card for the system due in overnight Fri the 15th.  

 

The weekend of Oct 16,17 will be STORMY.  Another, very strong storm is charting to arrive sometime late Sat.  This one could develop into a MAJOR WIND EVENT, so stay tuned.  Lots of rain, too!  Right behind the weekend storm will be another one, rapidly moving across the Pacific to slam into the PNW on Monday Oct 18.  Tue & Wed, Oct 19,20 have presented as either very stormy, or as a drying out period.  Too early to pin down that portion of the forecast board just yet.

 

Bottom line: we are not trying to be sensational here, just presenting what looks to be a significant change in the weather pattern for the PNW.  A change that will bring much needed rainfall and shots of mountain snow.  Plan ahead.  Secure items about your property (home or business) that could fly around in strong winds.  Protect frost-sensitive plants.  Fall foliage drop will limit the ability to ’stay ahead’ of plugged gutters, storm drains, etc.  Street & highway management will be kept busy. 

 

We will post Special Statements, as warranted, should one or more of the modeled storms look even more threatening.  The storms may vary as to timing.  Wham Bam weather coming.