The 6-7 day extended break from precipitation that we mentioned in our last write-up got spooked and left the model solutions.  Mug up.  Let’s see what the newest outlook is for early November.

 

Halloween weekend continues to look dry & COOL.  East-to-Northeast wind will begin as the air mass dries out, first over WA, then the rest of the PNW.  The heavy, flooding rains in NW WA are now passed.  That long band of precip finally got into OR overnight, after way over doing it in the rain dept for NW WA & BC.  Temperatures overnight during the weekend will be the chillest in quite some time.  NOTE: there is the possibility for another chance to view the Northern Lights Halloween weekend (Columbia River north)- as Geomagnetic Storm activity has returned.  Keep your eyes & cameras ready.

 

Next week: here’s the change - rain is now scheduled to return overnight Sunday & early Monday morning.  Break on Tue.  Then, a larger system arrives early Wed.  This front will produce a moderate rain band from BC to the Bay area of CA.  Drier late Wed & Thu but much cooler, as the air aloft is charting to be cold enough for snow showers below the passes on Thu.  A cold, BREEZY system arrives by Fri Nov 5 adding to the relatively low elevation snow fall (est 2,500 ft WA Cascades).  

 

Time Change Weekend of Nov 6,7 is trending to be mostly dry after some showers, mainly over WA Cascades Sat.  Temps could warm into 50s or lower 60s (south of Salem).  Truly, a pleasant fall weekend for early Nov. (Please note: a couple model runs keep the weekend mild, but wet at times.)  It will change abruptly by the next week.

 

Nov 8 - 12 is trending WET & BREEZY.  A series of strong Pacific storms will roll past, so expect plenty of low land rain & mountain snow, at times.  There could be winter-like cold air attached to the mid-week system, with foothill snow OR & WA, with snow/rain mix at the surface north of Everett.  Stay tuned.

 

The weekend of Nov 12,13 is looking extremely WET (2”-4”) & Stormy!  Details will be filled in, if models verify, as that period nears.

 

 

 

It will be a few days from now, but the PNW will get into a dry period starting this Halloween weekend.  In the meantime, our Big Storm continues to spin into the history books.  Refill that Mug and read on.

 

The big storm yesterday remains in play, west of WA,   It will continue to move N-NW towards the northern tip of Vancouver Island.  WINDS will diminish slowly, with plenty of steady rain, intense showers / possible thunderstorms (esp western WA) as bands of moisture spin around the powerful Low pressure center - now weakened to around 962-964 mb, which is still very deep for a PNW system this close to land.  Our big storm has already cost lives, damaged property & coastline areas and cut power to thousands.  The large impact zone is from BC to CA (which continues to get hammered).  Northern Calif got super-drenched by the storm (3-11 inches of rain; flood & mudslide issues common); the heavy rain band now slowly moves farther south in the Golden State.  

 

PNW - expect rain & showers to continue through Tue, with WED likely to be the drier day until the weekend.  More steady rain on the way for overnight Wed into Fri.  Not a strong system, but a long band of rain, supported by subtropical moisture, may flow over the PNW.  It could impact OR more than WA, although models solutions are mixed.  

The coming weekend is trending DRY and cooler, with a brisk N-NE wind picking-up as High pressure drops down from Canada, east of the Rockies, clipping the eastern portions of the PNW.  Speaking of dry, we are seeing an extended dry period from the spooky weekend on through Sat Nov 7.  

 

California will be the wet zone - after it dries out this week, more rain is modeled with a cut-off Low spinning significant moisture into southern CA by Nov 4; some solutions hold this system far enough off the CA coast to keep it dry a few extra days, but still wet by Nov 6.

 

For the PNW, the long-range outlook is mixed for the weekend of Nov 6,7.  It could be turning WET & cold, with snow levels dropping well below mountain passes, or remain dry until Tue Nov 8.  We’ll see.

 

Bottom line: after this week, the PNW should enter a dry period lasting a week or longer.  After plenty of rain, that rain break will be appreciated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rain, wind, high mountain snow, dangerous surf, thunderstorms, tornado potential, sunshine.  Wow.  Refill that Mug and read on to find out what may happen outside the next several days.

 

Yesterday, a very powerful storm formed well away from the coast, ushering in some wind & plenty of moisture to the region.  That Low was termed a ‘bomb cyclone’ because it deepened (to about 953 mb) so quickly as it approached the PNW.  It tracked northeast toward Haidi Gwaii, BC as it finally filled in (center pressure rises).  Hence, it’s impact was nominal for most Patrons.  

 

First on our radar (pun intended): another potentially more powerful ‘bomb cyclone’, is modeled to form this Sunday, Oct 24 - but this time, it is likely to track closer to NW in the Sunday/Monday period.  Below is a portion of Portland Nat’l Wx Service Meteorologist Neuman discussion, posted early this morning:

Much like the days ahead of yesterday`s bomb cyclone, members
of the EPS remain generally the strongest with the majority of 
members strengthening Sunday`s low pressure to somewhere between
940-950mb. Anything sub-950mb would result in the lowest pressure
observed in the northeast Pacific in the vicinity of 130W and 45N 
in recorded history. Note, there have been deeper low pressures
observed elsewhere in the northern Pacific closer to the Aleutian
Islands and Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile, most members of the GEFS and
CMCE are slightly weaker and generally bottom the low pressure out
near 950-955mb. Where the low pressure tracks once it begins to weaken
remains the biggest uncertainty. (Bold font is my emphasis)

 

 

Our package of “classic fall storms” - which we have been discussing since Oct 4 - is about to be delivered.  Finally.  The delayed arrival of the storms mirrors packages arriving at the door later than first expect.  Mug up, Patron, as regional wx could turn very interesting. 

 

Basis & Background: a long-awaited large, cold pool of air over the Gulf of Alaska is about to be ‘deployed' by Nature.  Subsequently, the contrast of cold/warm, combined with a very strong ‘jet stream’ overhead, will set up the potential for waves of Low pressure centers to deepen rapidly as they approach the PNW.  Historically, when deep Lows cross the meridian 130W line of longitude - just west of our coastline - WIND STORMS can be an issue.  There is an outside chance that such may be the case in the Oct 21-30 period.  The area of concern will be between northern CA and Vancouver Island / SW BC.  Model solutions vary considerably regarding just how close these Lows will approach the coast, and if they do cross the 130W line, where would their centers make landfall, if at all.  Some may spin north into Haidi Gwaii of BC, or track directly into NW WA, OR or even northern CA.  More than one storm will have this potential.  In the past, there can be 2 or 3 such systems in series, with one of them making a major impact somewhere in the PNW.  Again, this is background and conjecture based on what model solutions are now presenting as POSSIBLE.

 

The week ahead: expect a front to arrive overnight Tue, with rain & breezy conditions from northern CA to BC. Rather windy in far northern CA & Brookings. This will be followed by the remnant of Typhoon Namtheun - with a very deep Low center of pressure (956-964 mb ??) on Thu.  Don’t be alarmed.  Models track the center OFFSHORE towards Haidi Gwaii, so WINDS will be powerful over portions of Vancouver Is, missing the lower PNW areas.  BC Patrons be ready!  Coastal areas will be windy.  We will get RAIN, but not strong winds, if the system tracks as expected.  Friday brings on another much weaker system into northern CA, southern OR; damp up & down OR & WA.

 

The Oct 23,24 weekend:  a strong system (977-986 mb?) is likely to develop in the manner discussed in background above, with a path towards southern OR or northern CA overnight Sat.  California Patrons should be prepared from the Bay area north for strong winds, just in case.  The rest of us will get some rain/showers.  IF the weekend storm tracks farther north, well, stay tuned - this would impact OR the most.  

 

Monday night / Tue, Oct 25,26:  The storm in this period has the potential to be serious if it tracks far enough south over Vancouver Is.  Low pressure in the 970s possible.  We must watch this development.  Heavy rain & windy, either way Mon night through Tue.  

 

The Big One???  Thu, Fri Oct 28,29: Another powerful storm is charting - this one may be the most impactful of the series, if is crosses the 130W and makes landfall over central Vancouver Is.  Some solutions drop the center pressure below 966 mb!  We do not expect this outlier level to be met, but the trend is for the pre-Halloween storm to be POWERFUL.  WIND & heavy rain across the entire PNW and northern CA, followed by lowering snow levels, with possible snow in the coast range later on Fri (yeah, OR too).  

 

FROST Halloween morning is possible, should the sky clear in your location.  Dry pattern for a few days, before cool rains return by mid-week, early November.

 

Bottom Line:  these storms are not promised to be major wind events, but each has the potential.  Very windy & WET, yes.  That said, historically, the attributes of the atmosphere discussed in the 2nd paragraph above are what need to be ‘in play’ for our region to get major wind events.  After Wed, all will be.  Hence, the concern is warranted.  Power issues are probable during any one of the storms noted above, let alone to potential for 2 or 3 back-to-back.   PLEASE BE PREPARED, just in case.

 

—> We will post Special Statements should conditions verify going forward.  

 

 

Commentary from the ’Net:  “Why do I press ‘1’ for English when you’re just going to transfer me to someone I can’t understand anyway?"

 

 

Ah, so we have your attention with the tag line today — good. Mug time.

 

Split pattern, in a manner of speaking, for today and Sat, with the rain/showers trailing over western WA, roughly north of Chehalis.  Oregon and the eastern zones will be dry and mild today & Sat.  By late Saturday evening, the stretched-out front offshore will slowly move over OR and northern CA.  Expect Sunday to be on the damp side for OR, WA and BC.  Not much of that moisture is likely to reach the eastern basins.  

 

Monday will turn out mostly dry, as will Tue.  Models vary a bit on the timing & strength of the next system due in sometime overnight Tue or early Wed.  This disturbance may end up being a dud, as the front may simply stretch out and thus weaken so much that only clouds result inland.  We’ll see.  

 

Now the fizzle. The development of a broad low pressure trough over the Gulf of Alaska has been shifting later & later the past week or so.  We still see an extended, stormy pattern eventually making its way into the PNW, but WHEN? 2023?  Seriously, right now, models have fizzled it almost completely away next week, keeping everything basically offshore and moving south over the Pacific, before edging slowly towards the PNW for plenty of wind & rain.  Dare we try a forecast again?  Sure, easy with a good Mug full - -

 

Here goes: after the weak system the middle of next week, expect the weather across the PNW to turn mild & pleasant for fall.  Fog may be in play in the usual places early each day from Thu into the weekend of Oct 23,24.  A ‘break away’ Low may spin showers into southern OR (possible thunderstorms, too) late Fri into Sat Oct 22,23. Then, Sunday night the 24th, the first storm gets close enough to bring on some rain & brisk winds later Mon into Tue, Oct 25,26.  We should also mention, there are solutions that hold off all this action until even later, keeping that weekend mild & dry before the heavy rains & wind arrive the week of Oct 25-29.  Confused yet?  

 

We provided a ‘heads-up’ about the opportunity to witness an Aurora Borealis from right here in the PNW last Monday night, Oct 11.  Well, here are 3 stunning views of the ’Northern Lights’ from around the PNW.  All images used with permission from the photographers: Randy Small (Lynden), Don Feltham (Puget Sound, Edmonds), Clifford Paguio (Crown Point Vista House). Thank you, gentlemen!