Plenty of Rain

Here’s the latest forecast for the next couple of weeks.

 

WIND will still be possible later tonight.  Models have struggled more than political parties to work things out, so there is a huge variance in the outlook for the next storm.  We will call for the potential of 30-40 mph gusts in areas of the Willamette Valley overnight, maybe a bit stronger, depending on how deep the Low develops as it crosses the 130W line.  Part of the modeling problem is, to keep it simple, a ‘double Low’ structure that is setting up west of the coast.  The northern Low will be very deep (maybe <970 mb) as it moves north of Vancouver Island around midnight (STRONG WIND); the southern Low - the one that will set up winds for OR - will not deepen as much.  Combined, the Lows will generate winds across a large area of the PNW.  A good amount of rain will accompany the storm.  Blustery showers later Tue.

 

The next system is due in sometime late Wed.  Not as strong, but sourced with plenty of moisture at the mid-level, so rain will be steady and moderate into Fri., with the bulk of the rain over SW WA & NW OR.  The weekend is trending mixed, with possible showers, mainly north of Portland on Sunday.  Another cold front is charting for next Monday evening, Nov 15, hitting NW WA the most.  Plenty of rain & lowering snow levels - esp over NW WA Tuesday night.  Breezy.  Drying out Wed, with cold air aloft, so FROST possible Thu morning, Nov 18.   By Friday Nov 19, chilly rain & windy conditions are possible.  However, some model solutions keep in dry heading into the weekend of Nov 20,21.  

 

Thanksgiving Week: early to peg down just yet, but the trend is for the week to start out rather pleasant for Nov, with some foggy bottoms and sunshine.  (That said, rain could hit in a band across northern Vancouver Island into BC, missing most of NW WA, south.)  By Wed, however, a storm is charting to arrive, bringing back rainfall for our region.  Again, too soon to be confident of the holiday week weather.  Traditional, it’s wet on Thanksgiving.  We’ll see.