Groundhog Cold

Some changes in the forecast, so get yourself ‘Mug ☕️ ready'.

One key change since our last sip together is that HEAVY RAINFALL is now in the works for a few days.  While the bulk of the almost continuous precip will fall north of OR, northern CA up into Canada will get a drenching between this morning (Fri Jan 26) and mid-week.  Details: a very moist air mass is moving into position to dump as much as 2” of valley rain and 4”-6” inches in the higher elevations now through Wed.  Snow levels will be elevated early on, given the warm nature of the air mass, so low level snows will melt quickly into the watershed.  For OR, late Sunday afternoon into Mon may turn out MILD & generally dry, while NW WA and southern BC continue wet.  Vancouver Island, esp the northern 1/2, will be absolutely dumped on for a few days.  —> For our Patrons up there, please focus on safety and having supplies in case access by road is cut off.  

Next week - wet pattern continues on Monday for NW WA  BC, while OR may remain mostly dry AND WARM for January.  The next, large area very wet system will begin pushing onshore likely before sunrise on Wed Jan 31.  Mild temps to start, but then, after the front passes, temperatures will drop RAPIDLY and turn the PNW back into a “sure-feels-like-winter” mode again.  That’s the other key change.  Around the PNW, Thu Feb 1 is trending much colder, with the likelihood of rain/snow mixed at the surface in many areas, if moisture holds out.  COLD night Thu, with possible hard frost to start Groundhog Day.  (A weak Nor’easter will bring clouds & snow to PA on Groundhog Day.  Poor ‘Phil” will probably not see his shadow!). 

For Patrons in the Bellingham/Lynden/Abbotsford region - expect a Fraser Gap outflow to start up on Groundhog Day.  This should NOT be a repeat of the last Arctic Event, but it will be notable for a couple of days.  Windy & Cold.  

The weekend of Feb 3,4 is trending rather cold.  Moisture rotating around a Low over ID may actually bring snow showers over western valleys, both in WA & OR during the weekend.  Just say’n.  California will also get a drenching during this weekend, as well.  In fact, early Feb is trending WET in CA, with lots of mountain snowfall, esp across the southern CA mountains. 

The week of Feb 5-10 is charting dry & chilly.  Morning fog and frost possible.  By the end of that week, models suggest a return of a Fraser Gap outflow, with a small Low positioning over Tatoosh Island, circulating ‘snowy’ moisture into NW WA & the US/Canadian border.   Don’t mark that down just yet, as it is way out there on the crystal wx ball.   Overall, we can expect dry chilly conditions to hold through the weekend of Feb 10,11 (not unusual for Feb).

Stop by your WxCafé™️ again on Monday for our update.  🔺For a ‘quick click’ to The Weather Café®️, bookmark:  https://www.ovs.com/blogs/the-wxcafe