Bye Bye Extended Dry

Already half way through the last month of 2024, with the big year-end holiday period coming up.  Our tag line hints about the change in the forecast, a given lately.  The awaited extended dry period has been pushed away in the latest series of model solutions for the remainder of the year.  Let’s take a look.

Moderate RAIN today & Tue, with gusty winds at times.  Turning showery on Wed; temps seasonal.  LOTS of mountain snow, so be aware if traveling over the passes.  Thursday should be mostly dry around OR, but rain will continue across the Puget Sound region & Vancouver Island.  Drier still on Friday (with Vancouver Is. continuing wet) as the eastern Pacific begins to ‘fill’ with a series of storms.  Note an east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will likely be strong Thu - Sat for Troutdale east.

The weekend: a quick shot of rain on Saturday can be expected over southern OR / northern CA; the rest of the PNW may be mostly dry with a scattered shower here & there.  Windy across the Sound.  Additional precip now charting for Sunday, although daylight hours may be mostly a cloud event instead of rainy.  Cooler.  Overnight Sunday into Monday will be wet.

Christmas Week:  what was hoped to be a dry start to the long holiday week is now off the charts.  Expect moderate rain Mon the 23rd, as a deep 970 mb centered Low will track over Vancouver Island around 10 pm Mon, with plenty of gusty winds around the region, esp in the evening.  Christmas Eve should be dry, as well early Christmas Day before a wet system arrives.  Rain band pushes onshore north-to-south overnight Christmas Day into Thu. Very wet for Vancouver Is.  Additional rain on Fri the 27th.  Some model runs bring lots of rain in on Christmas Day.  Right now, we’ll say that kids may get a few hours of dry outdoor playtime.

White Watch:  per above, snow on Christmas Day is just not in the outlook for 2024.  

Weekend after Christmas is trending very wet, with the potential for a strong storm late Sat Dec 28.  This system could be similar to the one expected on the 23rd.  Model solutions are quite varied, of course, but the Low could rapidly deepen as it moves ‘inside the 130W’ while tracking toward Vancouver Island.  We will monitor closely, as some model runs track this particular storm farther south, which could usher in a notable wind event.  Quite stormy for northern CA, as well, with gusty winds from a separate Low moving into the Golden State overnight Sat.

May be dry the last 2 days of December 2024.

New Year’s Eve:  early yet, but we may enter a cold snap, with strong east winds out of the Fraser & Columbia Gaps.  Stay tuned.