A Calming

Around the PNW, lots of clean-up and power restoration in progress after the big storm this week.  What weather-card does the end of November hold?  Let’s take a look.

First of all, blustery & damp today, as the last in the current series of strong storms spins north a few hundreds miles offshore.  The atmosphere will ‘calm down’ throughout the weekend, with occasional showers and gradually cooling temperatures - a calming atmosphere, if you will, has we enter the first big holiday week of the season.  An east wind will blow down the Fraser Gap, but nothing of significance, other than a chill factor.

A stable, cool air mass will reside over the PNW next week.  Morning fog possible in the usual locations; frost probable, if the sky clears in your location, esp in the higher elevations & east of the Cascades.  Good news is that there is NO LONGER the chance for powerful east wind outflow from the Fraser Gap or Columbia Gorge during the holiday.  Models now keep the atmosphere rather tranquil for late November.  Most of the ‘winter wx’ will be in play across the plains and eastern half of the nation.  Generally DRY for the extended Thanksgiving holiday, excluding the last day.

The next chance for rain around the PNW is charting for Sunday, the 1st day of December.  Rain will advance north-to-south, covering nearly all of the PNW (including northern CA) by the afternoon.  Nothing heavy, no wind event - just a calm, cool rain.

Mon through Fri, Dec 2-6.  Rain will let up late Mon in most locations, before starting back up again on Tue.  A stronger system will dump lots of precipitation over Vancouver Island & the northern 2/3 of western WA Tue through Wed.  A couple inches possible, with most of OR only getting a small ‘clip’ of rain from that 2 day pattern.  Models continue heavy rainfall over northern Vancouver Island for the balance of the week, as the train of moisture lifts a bit farther north, compared to Mon/Tue.  Showers possible for the Puget Sound, but dry elsewhere around the region.

The weekend of Dec 7,8 is trending DRY & rather mild for early December.  

Upper-level pattern looks to have shifted away from any cold outbreaks in early December.  Let’s see if that holds.  Change is always expected.