The WxCafe™

HOT then Damp

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 22, 2025

Friday August 22

The weather charts are showing a range of conditions over the next couple of weeks, with the timing of precipitation unfortunate. ☕️ Mug time.

⚠️This weekend, Aug 23,24: HOT. Temps in the mid-to-upper 90s - even a few 100+ degree readings - in many locations around the PNW; NW WA & BC will be a bit cooler, however upper 90s remains probable away from the Sound shoreline. Regionally, a DRY AIR MASS, so fire danger will be elevated. Overnight low temps in the 60s, even 70s in a few locations. Fan Up.
⚠️Next week, Aug 25-29: HOT through at least Wed. Some mid-level moisture may ‘ride north’ from the desert SW, setting off thunderstorms over the OR & eastern basins. There are indications for an onshore flow to begin overnight Wed Aug 27, which would tap down the heat 7-10 degrees as the week ends. It could be WET on Thu the 28th, esp north of Portland, as the first of a series of rain fields arrive.
Labor Day Weekend, Aug 30-Sep 1: While not totally resolved, models continue to suggest a cooler & DAMP holiday weekend, with systems moving onshore from the west. We mentioned this last time and the solutions remain ‘wet’. Not a total wash-out, but if verified, just about everywhere around the PNW will get cloudiness and moderate amounts of precipitation. Labor Day itself may be the driest day of the holiday period.
Post Labor Day week, Sep 2-5: The short work & back-to-school week will likely start out cool and gradually warm throughout the 4 days.
Weekend of Sep 6,7: HOT again.

🌀 Topical Tropical: Well, the latest tropical charts have dropped any hurricane threat for the US mainland through at least Sep 8. FERNAND, if it develops, will spin out over the Atlantic as a fish storm. Other tropical storm development is now being hindered by dry Saharan Dust. Hopefully, this means we caught a break for now. It is the peak of hurricane season, so we can expect future development.

“The trouble with a skeleton in the closet is that it doesn’t have sense enough to stay there."

-Rufus

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Summer Warmth Returns

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 18, 2025

Monday August 18

For those that enjoy moderately hot, sunny August afternoons, this forecast will please. Refill your morn’n Mug and get back here for the latest outlook for the rest of August.

Cool, onshore flow will keep afternoon highs a tad below normal for the next 2-3 days, then an extended warm period will develop, one that could hold through until Labor Day Weekend.

This week, Aug 18-22: Afternoon sun after the morning marine cloud deck ‘burns off’. Temps pleasantly in the 70s, maybe low 80s esp south & east regions. By Thu, the onshore will weaken & temps will begin to heat up into the 90s around western OR, SW WA; 80s around the Sound, north.
The coming weekend, Aug 23,24: Mid 90s possible; high 80s north of Chehalis. Morning sun.
Week of Aug 25-29: Onshore flow picks up, cooling the region down again, much like the current pattern. This time, though, the pattern may shift to one that is like Fall, right in time for the extended US holiday.
Labor Day Weekend, Aug 30-Sep 1: The 'final holiday' of Summer. Long-range charts hint of a Low pressure system drifting down the BC coast, ushering in clouds, cooler temps and showers throughout the entire holiday. This is early, so don’t modify outdoor plans just yet. Thunderstorms along the Cascades during Thu & Fri Aug 28,29.
Post Labor Day week: trending cool, partly-to-mostly cloudy, but dry, as a Low centers itself right over the PNW.

It’s just about time for wine grape veraison - the important "coloring up” period for wine grapes — the transition from grape berry growth to berry ripening. Veraison is often from late-Aug to early Sept, but timing can be quite variable because of summer weather conditions. Any Patrons that are grape growers wishing to share whether or not veraison has started in your vineyard(s) — please post a note to rrufus@yahoo.com.

“A diplomat can juggle a hot potato long enough for it to become a cold issue."

-Rufus

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Touch of Fall

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 15, 2025

Friday August 15

The next couple of days will present a Touch of Fall.

Storm time. An unusually strong Pacific storm for August has captured the forecast news, for good reason. It is quite rare to have a system loaded with this much moisture, and notable wind field, arrive in the PNW during the 8th month of the year. RAIN will continue to move onshore as today progresses, with the heaviest rainfall due in this evening. BREEZY, too, so secure patio furniture, etc. Half an inch or more rain is possible around the region; higher amounts in the foothills. The system will work its way east by Saturday morning, with some showers early in the day, then slow clearing by the afternoon. A real August Mud Maker. Sunday will be dry & pleasant. 70s.
Next week, Aug 18-22: dry & pleasant. Some morning marine clouds possible. It does look a bit warmer towards the end of the week.
Aug 23,24 weekend: Dry & warm.
Week of Aug 25-29: Dry Monday, then a chance for additional rain or showers, primarily over WA & southern BC by Tue morning. This system may also end up quite wet for August, esp north of Portland. On/off precip through Wed the 27. Temps below normal. Southern OR could remain dry throughout.
Labor Day holiday weekend: trending dry, with temps in the 70s - low 80s.

🌀 Topical Tropical: ERIN will continue to deepen, resulting in a Cat III or IV level hurricane soon. ERIN will likely remain dangerous ‘fish storm” as it curves northward missing the US, passing close to Newfoundland then Greenland. Still, the Atlantic Seaboard will experience high surf from this soon-to-be powerful storm. The next potential Atlantic hurricane - to be named FERNAND - is now ‘birthing’ similar to ERIN, just west of Africa. FERNAND could pose a direct threat to the US by Labor Day weekend.

“People cannot change truth, but truth can change people."

-Rufus

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Adjusting the Thermostat

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 11, 2025

Monday August 11

Nature will be adjusting the thermostat, cooling the region down as this week ends. Looks like some raindrops are also in the works. Let’s take a look.

This week, Aug 11-15: HOT today and Tue, with temps again teasing close to triple-digits (Medford 106 yesterday). Puget Sound will be warm, but not nearly as hot as western OR. Onshore flow increase mid-week, so expect Wed to cool down. By Friday, SHOWERS possible as a cold front moves onshore from the NW. Temps on Fri may not exceed 72. Most of the precip will fall north of Portland, much like the system several days ago.
The coming weekend, Aug 16,17: Looks mostly dry, with some cloudiness following behind Friday’s cold front. Temps will rebound a bit, into the mid-to-upper 70s. Pleasant.
Week of Aug 18-22: Turning warmer by Wed the 20th, although not a heat wave. Pleasant 80s; cooler around the Sound. Fri the 22nd may top 90 in portions of western OR.
Weekend of Aug 23,24: Cooling again, as a weak surface Low tracks just off the OR coast. Onshore flow, with marine clouds. Late Sunday could present drizzle along the coast.
Week of Aug 25-29: Increasing warmth, with temps returning to expected Summer heat. We don’t see a heat wave at this time, just seasonal temps for late August.

The future hurricane mentioned in our last report now looks to track well off-shore over the Atlantic. As a “fish storm”, ERIN still looks to be a strong hurricane, but no threat for landfall.

“Each morning sees some task begin, each evening sees it close;

Something attempted, something done, has earned the night’s repose.” -Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

-Rufus

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Shortened

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 08, 2025

Friday August 8

The Heat Wave arrives, but it will be shortened, to the delight of many. Time for that refill, Patron.

Indeed, the much discussed heat-up gets under way starting today. Temps will pop up a few degrees each day as the weekend unfolds, with Sunday likely being the first ‘cooker’ day of the shortened heat spell. While the Puget Sound & southern BC will not get so hot, everywhere in the PNW will experience the uncomfortable heat to some degree (pun intended).

Aug 9,10 weekend: Temps in the 90s to near 100 by Sunday in western OR. Sunday night may not cool down much, so keep those fans handy.
Week of Aug 11-15: Monday likely the hottest day - 96 to 100 in many locations south of Longview. Slight cooling on Tue, although lots of variation in model outlooks, so it could still reach 90+ However, all indications are that by Wed the 13th, a weak surface Low will work it’s way into the PNW along coastal BC, with a chance for a shower or two over the Puget Sound overnight Wed. Whoa. That was not expected earlier. Temps will drop down into the pleasant 70s in western OR (which should stay dry, with some cloudiness Thu). Fri the 15th looks to be warmer, but not hot.
Weekend of Aug 16,17: A stronger system could edge it’s way into the PNW overnight Fri, with some rain or showers across most of western WA Fri night into Sat. Mainly a cloud event for NW OR - and remaining dry. Sunday trends as pleasant.
Week of Aug 18-22: Temps remaining mild for August, with another slight chance for showers late Fri over the Sound. Don’t bet on this, though.

As you can tell, this projected heat wave will barely make the “qualifying round” of 3 consecutive 90 degree days in the shade (we use the 'old school' definition). However, in keeping with our foundational premise, when it looked like the heat wave could last 7 days, we encouraged Patrons 'be prepared, just in case'.

🌀 Topical Tropical. From the may-or-may-not Department, we are monitoring the season's first Atlantic storm that could impact the US. This tropical wave, developing just off the west coast of Africa around Capo Verde, may deepen and be named ERIN before making a run at the SE Atlantic coast by Aug 20-22.

“A recipe of life must contain a goodly amount of seasoning."

-Rufus

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