Where do we start?  Wow, lots of impactful weather about to hit the PNW and California.  Extra-size your morning beverage, this will take some time to absorb.  It is important.  Ready?

Probably best to break this monster forecast into 2 Parts, as each piece could have ramifications on life & property, depending on your location.  (Remember Patron, our forecast discussions cover BC, WA, OR, CA and ID, so while your specific area may not have a serious impact, another area in our region very well could.)  Enough said.

—> Biggest adjustment since our Saturday Special Statement is that the heaviest rainfall, and thus risk for MAJOR flooding, has been shifted, by the models, farther south into Northern CA, generally north of the Bay area up into the southern margin of OR.  That’s NOT to say the rest of the region will escape lots of rain and localized flooding of small creeks and urban area (leaf blockage of storm drains).  

Kuril Islands Storm - This system is continuing to develop, with the potential for center Low pressure to rapidly fall (hence the term ‘bomb cyclone' used by some) to 941-950 mb by the time it is a few hundred miles west of Vancouver Island.  That is equivalent to a major hurricane.  WINDS will be strong from the EAST, as the storm approaches, but it will NOT make landfall (thank goodness the High pressure Dome will block further eastward movement).  Interestingly, the actual Low will rotate offshore and spin farther West before returning as a weak Low to northern CA a week from now.  

WINDS.  Strong winds along the west coast from Bay area north to BC; inland S winds could gust to 40 mph.  It could be the powerful EAST winds, pushing out from that formerly Yukon Dome as it settles to our east, that could have impact.  The Gaps - Fraser & Columbia Gorge - will be very windy.  Even Cascade passes will be very windy.  Also, as the S wind clashes with the E wind along the western edge of the Cascades, winds will be intense.  Falling trees possible given saturated soils.  Power outages, too.

RAIN.  As noted above, inches of precip is likely for all locations west of the mountains between late Tue and Saturday.  Northern CA could have MAJOR ISSUES with flooding, as models indicated 7”-9” in the period.  To quote Behringer, Nat’l Wx Service, San Francsico, “getting caught up on whether a storm is a ‘bomb cyclone’ or not does not effectively communicate the associated impacts on life and property”.  OR & WA may have dodged the high risk of major flooding this time.  Generally, rain should let up a bit on Fri, except for northern CA.  The weekend is trending damp on Saturday, turning cooler & drier on Sunday.  

COASTAL EROSION.  Beach communities will experience lots of high wave action and beach erosion.  Patrons in these locations must remain alert.

Thanksgiving Week is trending drier but NOTABLY COLDER.  Yukon Domes will continue to have influence on PNW wx conditions, as a ’second’ Dome moves SE out of Canada.  The air will dry beginning Sunday, and an East wind will pick up.  Indications are that by Tue, wind will rush down the Fraser Gap (not severe!), cooling the Puget Sound region.  Not so much out of the Columbia yet.  A weak system from the west could bring rain onshore overnight Tue.  Will it be cold enough for rain/snow mixed at the surface?  We’ll see.  Anyway, on Wednesday, showers will begin to diminish late day, and the Fraser Gap winds will return - this time building into a major wind event for the northern portion of the Puget Sound.  Rain continues over western OR overnight Wed into Thanksgiving Day.

Thanksgiving.  Moderate rain all day in OR, heavy rain all day in CA, and turning COLDER in the Puget Sound area, with the Fraser Gap wind howling.  In fact, Patrons around Lynden, etc should prep for potentially damaging winds & possible power outages overnight Thanksgiving into Black Friday.  We’ll update this, of course.

Strong east winds out of the Columbia Gorge Sunday Dec 1st.  Another very WET week will follow Thanksgiving Weekend.  This time we may NOT dodge the flood-bullet.  More on that in the next report.  

Bottom line:  the blocking High pressure ridge inland is literally saving the PNW from an extremely dangerous wind event.  Potential barometric pressures - in what we have coined the “Kuril Islands Storm” - are way below that of the Columbus Day storm in 1962.  While the storm will not get too close to our coasts, it will have impact, so please heed all the watches and warnings issued by the Nat’l Wx Service. 

⚠️ YELLOW ALERT ⚠️

The “Kuril Islands Storm” (our term - see the Nov 15 discussion) is expected to arrive this Tue night & Wed with strong WINDS & HEAVY RAIN.  It may be the first in a string of storms that could cause MAJOR issues with flooding, both localized & key rivers in the Wed Nov 20 - SAT NOV 23 period.  Localized power outages are likely.  The main area of concern, as of this morning, is western OR & SW WA.  Full details will be published Monday.  A possibility, not a definite.  Plan accordingly, just in case.

As our tag line implies, interesting wx patterns are modeled to unfold in the near future.  Possibly.  Are you interested?  Grab your Fri morn’n beverage and read on - - -

Today, the middle of November already, will present as partly sunny, with a chance for a shower or two, mainly along the Cascades.  Chilly tonight, with chance for frost in the usual cold spots.  Saturday will start out dry, but another wet ‘warm front’ arrives, followed Sunday by a ‘cold front' - with plenty of cold air support -  presenting wet, wind and mountain snow that could exceed 12” by Monday afternoon.  Snow levels could drop to 1,000 - 1,500 ft in NW WA / 2,000 - 2,500 ft in OR.  Pass travelers should gear up for winter travel over “them thar hills”. 

Backstory.  Recall that key ’storm action’ happens when warm and cold air masses clash.  The boundary between the two, which we humorously speak of as ‘middle of the aisle’ being similar to the clash between political parties, is typically where surface storms form and travel along that boundary.  Well, a Low pressure system currently over northern Japan & the Kurill Islands will rapidly cross the Pacific and 'pair up' with a weak Low to the NW of Hawaii to form a POWERFUL deepening Pacific storm as it approaches the PNW.  Cold air over the Gulf of Alaska clashing with subtropical air over the central Pacific.  Remember our last forecast of the Giant High pressure Wall that models suggested would set up from the Yukon south to NV around Nov 20th?  That still develops on the long-range charts, but gets split in the ‘middle’ along its western edge (over WA, OR, northern CA) by the powerful Pacific storm approaching the PNW.   Oh, by the way, models drop the center pressure to 945-950 mb - equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane center pressure - when the Low is a couple hundred miles west of Vancouver Island Tue night. But, will we get hit?  Sip.

Back to the forecast.  With the info above in mind, we are changing the forecast for next week.  Instead of dry, with a strong east wind, for much of the week, our weather is now charting as wet nearly every day, turning STORMY on Wed Nov 20 as that Pacific storm moves close to the PNW.   —> Fortunately, the Low will NOT make landfall, rather, it will spin around offshore as it ‘fills’ and the pressure weakens, then it will shift backwards farther west, making room for another Low that will move up from the SW.  This one is likely to generate a strong WIND FIELD for coastal WA & Vancouver Is on Fri Nov 22.  Yes, both storms will spin off moderate-to-heavy rain bands, so expect a wet week, in. general.  There will be a brisk east wind in the Columbia Gorge as the Wed storm approaches, less so for the Fraser Gap, although still windy.  South winds will be the main play in west side locations.  

The weekend of Nov 23,24 is trending with rain moving north from CA/OR border on Sat (mostly dry, mild in WA), turning WET & windy for all on Sunday - and Monday the 24th.  Return to chilly conditions, too.

Thanksgiving Week:  another interesting turn in the weather is possible.  Take another sip.  Model solutions keep a Yukon Dome of 1040+ mb forming and reforming throughout the period discussed above.  By Thanksgiving week, a Yukon Dome is modeled to drop southeast, per usual, and this time it may have an impact on the PNW in terms of the coldest wx thus far in the fall of 2024.  Winds out of the Fraser Gap could be strong by midweek; stronger still on Thanksgiving.  Chilly, but too early for forecast temp - think at least frosty mornings.   High pressure ridge of 1050+ mb possible over northern ID on Black Friday, setting up a windy but dry Thanksgiving weekend.  We’ll see.  These patterns often present snow and or freezing rain issues for west side locations.  More next forecast.

As our tag line implies, interesting wx patterns are modeled to unfold in the near future.  Possibly.  Are you interested?  Grab your Fri morn’n beverage and read on - - -

Today, the middle of November already, will present as partly sunny, with a chance for a shower or two, mainly along the Cascades.  Chilly tonight, with chance for frost in the usual cold spots.  Saturday will start out dry, but another wet ‘warm front’ arrives, followed Sunday by a ‘cold front' - with plenty of cold air support -  presenting wet, wind and mountain snow that could exceed 12” by Monday afternoon.  Snow levels could drop to 1,000 - 1,500 ft in NW WA / 2,000 - 2,500 ft in OR.  Pass travelers should gear up for winter travel over “them thar hills”. 

Backstory.  Recall that key ’storm action’ happens when warm and cold air masses clash.  The boundary between the two, which we humorously speak of as ‘middle of the aisle’ being similar to the clash between political parties, is typically where surface storms form and travel along that boundary.  Well, a Low pressure system currently over northern Japan & the Kurill Islands will rapidly cross the Pacific and 'pair up' with a weak Low to the NW of Hawaii to form a POWERFUL deepening Pacific storm as it approaches the PNW.  Cold air over the Gulf of Alaska clashing with subtropical air over the central Pacific.  Remember our last forecast of the Giant High pressure Wall that models suggested would set up from the Yukon south to NV around Nov 20th?  That still develops on the long-range charts, but gets split in the ‘middle’ along its western edge (over WA, OR, northern CA) by the powerful Pacific storm approaching the PNW.   Oh, by the way, models drop the center pressure to 945-950 mb - equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane center pressure - when the Low is a couple hundred miles west of Vancouver Island Tue night. But, will we get hit?  Sip.

Back to the forecast.  With the info above in mind, we are changing the forecast for next week.  Instead of dry, with a strong east wind, for much of the week, our weather is now charting as wet nearly every day, turning STORMY on Wed Nov 20 as that Pacific storm moves close to the PNW.   —> Fortunately, the Low will NOT make landfall, rather, it will spin around offshore as it ‘fills’ and the pressure weakens, then it will shift backwards farther west, making room for another Low that will move up from the SW.  This one is likely to generate a strong WIND FIELD for coastal WA & Vancouver Is on Fri Nov 22.  Yes, both storms will spin off moderate-to-heavy rain bands, so expect a wet week, in. general.  There will be a brisk east wind in the Columbia Gorge as the Wed storm approaches, less so for the Fraser Gap, although still windy.  South winds will be the main play in west side locations.  

The weekend of Nov 23,24 is trending with rain moving north from CA/OR border on Sat (mostly dry, mild in WA), turning WET & windy for all on Sunday - and Monday the 24th.  Return to chilly conditions, too.

Thanksgiving Week:  another interesting turn in the weather is possible.  Take another sip.  Model solutions keep a Yukon Dome of 1040+ mb forming and reforming throughout the period discussed above.  By Thanksgiving week, a Yukon Dome is modeled to drop southeast, per usual, and this time it may have an impact on the PNW in terms of the coldest wx thus far in the fall of 2024.  Winds out of the Fraser Gap could be strong by midweek; stronger still on Thanksgiving.  Chilly, but too early for forecast temp - think at least frosty mornings.   High pressure ridge of 1050+ mb possible over northern ID on Black Friday, setting up a windy but dry Thanksgiving weekend.  We’ll see.  These patterns often present snow and or freezing rain issues for west side locations.  More next forecast.

We lift our Mugs to all Veterans in honor of their service.  A dry spell is now appearing on the long-range charts.  In the meantime, a rainy week ahead.  Here goes - - 

A cold front passed overnight, so expect intermittent rain, showers & possible thunderstorms today on into Tue; breezy, too.  Overnight Tue, the second storm of this series arrives.  This one will be stronger & pack more moisture and WIND, so expect moderate-to-heavy rain to be in play overnight on through the day Wed Nov 13.  Rain, showers and lowering snow level overnight Wed into Thu.  Thursday does look wet early then turning drier as the sunsets.  With clearing expected Thu night, temps will begin to cool down notably.  Chilly Friday and risk of FROST Saturday morning around the region; could be a bit of fog, as well.

The weekend does chart as dry on Saturday, with the last of the series of Pacific storms moving onshore early Sunday the 17th, from north to south.  This system will usher in notably colder air, so periods of SNOW east side is probable overnight Sunday into early Monday Nov 18; although the lower Columbia Basin should simply gets cold showers.  

Refill Time.  You may recall our Ponder Point last week about North Pole air moving south, melding with a High pressure ridge over the Chukcia Sea, to set up a Yukon Dome of of 1040+mb pressure the week of Thanksgiving.  Well, it looks like models have moved up the dates of that prog to begin approx. a week early - Mon Nov 18.  Therefore, after the Sunday Nov 17 cold front passes, the PNW could be in for a stretch of DRY weather - with POWERFUL Columbia Gorge outflow winds beginning Tue the 19th.  Yes, the Fraser Gap will also usher in a strong wind field, but not a severe the Columbia Gorge situation.  Please make NOTE:  the air mass is NOT super “winter cold”, so we are not projecting a winter event; rather, a strong easterly flow down the Cascade passes, Fraser Gap and Columbia River Gorge to set up crystal clear days for Tue - Sat Nov 19-23.

—>  The Giant High Pressure Ridge is modeled to extent from the Beaufort Sea all the way south to northern NV!!  (Everyone is searching for the location of the Beaufort Sea.)  Center pressure charts at 1050+ right over Yellowstone Nat’l Park Thu Nov 20.  Should this pattern verify, expect powerful winds pushing down and out towards the WA, OR & CA coasts from that High center.  Yes, California’s Santa Ana winds will make news, along with the ‘Gap Winds’ in the PNW.  Fire issues will be dangerous for southern CA.  

We see a lessening of the winds by Sunday Nov 24th; continued dry for a few more days.  Rain may arrive again around ’travel time’ the day before Thanksgiving.  

Per expectations, model solutions for the rainy period ahead have made adjustments.  Refill time and let’s review the potential for wet weather this November.

Enjoy today and possibly early Sat Nov 9, as temps will be mild and sport some sunshine, at times.  Rain will move inland later Sat, let up a bit early Sunday, then begin in earnest late Sunday through Veterans Day.  We should see some breaks on Tue, although cold air aloft is likely to spawn a few showers.  We may also get a few thunderstorm as the Veterans Day storm draws in cold air aloft.  

Wednesday Nov 13 looks VERY stormy with wind, rain, mountain snow - the whole fall storm show.  Heaviest rainfall is modeled for western WA, although the entire PNW will be wet.  Rapid creek, stream and river rises are likely, so be alert!  Eastern basins likely to get a tease of rain/snow mix, with snow in the higher elevations east side & northern ID.  Thu & Fri next week look damp, mainly from frequent showers; definitely cool temps.

The weekend of Nov 16,17 has charted as very wet, then not too wet - even dry- then a mix.  No definite pattern charting.  We will forecast a chance for precip, mainly over western WA & NW OR.  

We may catch a break in the ‘wet-every-day’ scenario on Monday Nov 18 and possibly most of Tue the 19th.  After that, WHAM, right back into steady rainfall, wind and mountain snow for a few more days.  In fact, Patrons should prepare for heavy rain and possible issues with flooding, esp in locations prone to stream/creek/river flooding.  Stay alert, please.  Moderate-to-heavy rain daily from Wed the 18th through Sunday the 24, if model’s verify.  We see LOW snow levels after Sat Nov 23rd storm passes, so expect snow on coast range & definitely Cascade passes.  

Ponder Point: per the discussion above about low snow levels around the 24th — we are monitoring a High pressure dome literally over the North Pole shifting SW over interior Alaska, joining up with a bitter cold air mass over the Chukchi Sea (another High pressure dome charting at 1042-1045 mb) which could lead to our key winter action indicator: a 'Yukon Dome' 1040 mb+.  We will keep an eye on such a development, as weather during Thanksgiving week could be quite interesting.  Just a ponder point for now, Patron.

Bottom line: plenty of classic fall rain, winds and mountain snow remains in the picture for much of November.