🔺 FINAL FORECAST from The Weather Café ®️

Lots of stormy weather on the way - yeah, November in the PNW.  Let’s share a fresh Mug of morn’n beverage on our last morning together.  All set? 

A wet system just now moving onshore over Vancouver Island & the Olympic Range.  Plenty of rain will spread south & east as this Halloween day progresses, with OR Patrons getting a break until late afternoon or this evening.  A secondary storm will rapidly deepen and move onshore Saturday morning.  This one is a potential WIND PRODUCER, especially for western OR.  Not saying 'super powerful', but with soaked soils and “leaf sails” still on many trees, there could be power outages.  Temperatures will remain mild until early Sunday, as the colder air works onshore.  Sunday should be much drier, with a few showers early in the day.  Snow showers in mountains.

Next week will be VERY STORMY.  A rather bland, but cool Monday will start the week.  Tue morning - Nov 4 - should be dry & mild.  Rain will move into the PNW from the south, so OR gets wet first, then by evening or overnight, the entire PNW will be drenched.  This system will be quite WINDY and pack lots of moisture.  It will keep us wet through Wed.  Interestingly, the Tue/Wed night storm will be the current strong storm over JAPAN today (Oct 31).  This Low pressure ‘wave’ will rapidly travel across the Pacific to the PNW.  Similarly, so too will the next storm that is charted to arrive sometime late Thu afternoon.  Another very wet system!  It will remain wet on Fri Nov 7.

Overnight Fri into Sat, a relatively weak front will bring more rain over the PNW, but not nearly as wet as the previous two ‘Japan’ storms.  Colder air may work into the PNW, so if the sky clears in your area Sunday morning Nov 9, FROST will be likely - and again Monday morning.

Week of Nov 10-14.  As suggested above, Mon should start out dry & chilly, turning WET overnight into early Tue the 11th - Veteran’s Day.  That said, we may be in between storms on Veteran’s Day with a dry period for honoring our Vets.  Flags Up.  Rain returns Tue night, with a chilly showery day on Wed. FROST possible again Thu morning the 13th.  We see DRY days on Thu, Fri on into the weekend of Nov 15,16.  Sunday Nov 16 looks wet early western WA and CHILLY.  Breezy from the west.  

Monday & Tue Nov 17,18 are trending dry and possibly foggy in the mornings.

❗️My good friend, Dillon Honcoop will be interviewing me for the last time on News Talk KGMI’s Farming Show tomorrow morning, Saturday Nov 1.  Listen live, if you can receive the signal at 96.5 FM and 790 AM.  Dillon usually posts the Farming Show on a podcast for listening after airing; search for it, if interested.  Thanks, Dillon & KGMI for all the support over the years.

“Weather forecasters are so unpredictable we never know how wrong they’re going to be.”  Yeah, right.

Ciao,

The big storms over the weekend caused a fatality, property damage, and over a hundred thousand power outages, mainly in western WA.  OK, so what’s the wx going to be like to end October and through the first half of November?  Ready. Set. Sip.

Here we go, the final week of posting The Weather Café®️  

For this week, showers ending today, with a dry day on Tue, except for additional steady rain due to arrive over Vancouver Island & mainland BC later Tue.  Generally, wet overnight Tue for all areas north of Portland (Salem north may get some precip, depending on the track of the next deep 977mb Low centered over Haida Gwaii.  Breezy.  Wed will present some drying, with an east wind kicking up overnight through a dry Thu Oct 30.

HALLOWEEN.  A very deep, powerful storm - modeled with a center pressure of 950 mb - will essentially ‘fill’ the Gulf of Alaska late this week.  While that deep Low will not cross into the PNW, it will set off a WET Halloween, esp over western WA & BC (heavy rainfall).  The ‘tail' of that front will drape over western OR, with less rainfall expected.  Looks breezy and wet during trick-o-treat time; mostly dry over southern OR, northern CA and ID on Halloween.

Weekend of Nov 1,2:  A secondary front to all of that above will sent rain & showers over the PNW on Saturday.  Turning cooler on Sunday, with decreasing showers.

Week of Nov 3 - 7:  Wet nearly everyday, except for a mostly dry Mon.  Interesting -  Tue is charting a tightly wound, small storm tracking onshore somewhere south of Lincoln City; could be WINDY in the Willamette Valley south of Salem.  Wet Wed afternoon, breezy.  Rainy Thu, turning showery and COOLER by Fri the 7th to end the week.

Dry Spell.  Finally, several dry days may arrive, starting the weekend of Nov 8,9.  FROST POSSIBLE both sides of the Cascades Sunday morning the 9th.  Vancouver Island will be wet, so no frost there.  The following week (Nov 10-14) is currently charting as dry.  We’ll see.

Yes, indeed, pick out a good book because the next couple of weeks will be quite WET & WINDY.  Hard to get a ‘brolly’ to work well in the wind, but many will try.  What’s up?  Get your Mug refilled and read on.

The ‘opening act’ for the upcoming series of Pacific storms will arrive today.  Patrons on Vancouver Island have been getting wet for the past day; the rest of the PNW is next.  Moderate-to-heavy rain and windy conditions will be the main event today.  A stronger storm (in regards to wind) will move onshore later Sat morning.  This system will pack quite a punch, so secure what you can today and, if possible, avoid parking near old trees.  So many trees still have leaves, which will act as ’sails’ and catch the wind — causing limbs to break or trees to fall. BE AWARE.  Anyway, moderate-to-heavy rainfall will remain on tap through early Sunday morning.  

We see another WET system moving onshore Monday, after a very short break Sunday night.  While not charting as strong as the previous storms, this one will continue rain through early Wed, with Tue night turning breezy again.  Short break in the rain Wed afternoon & evening, except for Vancouver Island, as another wet system clips the island.  The rest of the PNW should remain dry & cool from Wed afternoon on into Thu.  (NOTE: the strong EAST winds we mentioned last time that were charted for much of the west have been dropped by the models, although northern CA will be WINDY on Thu.)  The 1044 mb high over the Continental Divide is now charting at 1035 mb or so, which minimizes the large-scale east wind event.  Also, you may have noticed that the current outlook indicates model solutions for Oct 27-31 have reverted back to that of a week ago (Simple Addition).  This happens rather frequently.

Back to Halloween - overnight Thu Oct 30 a very wet system will hit the PNW.  Halloween day looks quite WET.  However, right now, model runs suggest the trick-or-treat time could transition into showers, vs steady rainfall.  Too early to peg this just yet.  

The first weekend of November 2025 is trending WET, with a storm on Sat the 1st targeting southern OR early in the morning, then showers elsewhere.  Sunday looks wet, esp from Salem north into BC.  The week of Nov 3-7 will present even more rainfall & blustery conditions, with northern WA & BC experiencing a deluge; river flooding possible.  

Should all of the above forecast verify, you’ll understand the tag line of “book time”!   Reminder to all Patrons: our final forecast discussion will be posted Halloween morning.  

Per usual, models have changed a few features of the long-range outlook; so shall we.  All set?  ☕️

The weekend rain has passed, as expected, with wx conditions this week matching earlier forecasts.  Today, a weak system provides rain over central/north Vancouver Island, but that will pass through overnight (snow in the Coastal Mountains of BC).  For the rest of the PNW, expect dry conditions through Tue before a rapidly moving front crosses western WA north, bringing rain/showers for a few hours; continued dry over OR and the eastern basins of WA & OR.  Come Thu, the leading edge (warm front) of the next large storm will usher in steady rain over Vancouver Island.  Overnight Thu the cold front associated with that large storm will bring on moderate-to-heavy rain over the Island and on into the PNW by the morning commute on Friday.  Wind will increase as Fri the 24th progresses.  It will be 'Wet City' all day Friday.

The coming weekend will be a continuance of the Fri storm, with colder air moving in, increasing winds and plenty of rain through all of Saturday.  By Sunday morning, the winds should diminish along with the steady rain; Sunday could end up chilly, but mostly dry.  Snow in the Cascades will be the heaviest of the season, to date.  Travelers beware. Overnight Sunday the 26th, another fast moving front will add to the cumulative precipitation around the PNW.  

Complicated.  For the week of Oct 27-31, models have removed of couple of the storms we mentioned in our last report.  Subtraction.  Meaning, the Sunday night/Monday morning system will likely be the LAST until Thu the 30th.  In place of rain, the PNW will hammered with strong east winds, because a heavy (1044 mb) High Pressure Dome will position itself over the Continental Divide, creating a powerful storm to the east —> for the upper plain states and midwest - and very strong winds over the west —> WA, OR, NV, CA, AZ.  This event could be a newsmaker, should it verify.  (Fortunately, the earlier rains should prevent any forest fire issues in the PNW, but NOT for the other states).  

This will not be an Arctic Event around the PNW, as the airmass will not be ‘Arctic Cold’.  Therefore, expect a shot of outflow from the Fraser Gap (not cold) beginning Tue Oct 28 as the 1035 mb Dome shifts to the SE towards the Continental Divide.  WINDS will increase down the Columbia Gorge (powerful) and down the passes of the Cascades, both OR & WA towards the west.  Northern CA will also get slammed by this wind system, so passes through the Sierra Nevada Range will be extremely windy.  All that said, the winds will diminish by Thu morning, as another Pacific storm returns some rain to the PNW.  A repeat storm will also arrive early Halloween morning, but not impact OR so much, as most of the precip will fall north of Portland.  Good snow in the WA Cascades with this system.  Breezy.  

Weekend of Nov 1,2 looks DRY & mild.  A drenching rain returns late Tue November 5.

From 2007, “Some people get all their mental exercise by climbing up and down molehills."

What’s with the tag line this time?  Well, refill your Mug and get to reading - - - 

Enjoy the next 24 to 36 hours of pleasant weather.   We have another storm moving in this weekend; however, Patrons on Vancouver Island are likely to pick up some rain overnight Friday, then spreading over the Puget Sound region by Sat afternoon, and finally, covering the entire PNW - both sides of the Cascades & ID by early Sunday.  Breezy.  After a damp weekend, next week looks to start generally dry.

Monday - Wednesday, Oct 20-22.  Overall, mostly dry & mild (temps in upper 50s or lower 60s) for the first 3 days of next week.  However, a weak shot of showers could cross Vancouver Is. and the northern section of the Puget Sound overnight Monday into early Tue.  For those counting:  that’s 4 or 5 days of DRY from now until Oct 22.  A large scale pattern shift will take place starting overnight next Wed, Oct 22.  Sip.

Currently, the number of Pacific storms on the charts to move into the PNW from next Wed night through Sunday Nov 2 adds up to SEVEN.  Yep, the up coming wx pattern may develop into the classic Oct / Nov rainy season.  Be ready, as breaks between storms will be measured in hours, not days.  We also see the potential for 3 WIND PRODUCERS in the upcoming series of storms.  These windy storms will ’share-the-impact’ by individually hitting southern OR (Oct 26), then western OR (Oct 28), and NW WA (Oct 29).  We’ll monitor closely for verification, of course.  What about cumulative precipitation?  Projections are for a range of 3” to 6” in the western lowlands during the Oct 22 - Nov 2 period.  Leaf-fall will contribute to localized flooding, so help clear residential storm drains where it is safe to do so!

Bottom line:  Adding up all of the storms charting for the balance of Oct through early Nov, we get an answer of 8.  Seasonally normal rainfall.  

For The Weather Café®️, we have another 2 weeks to go before the last report.  In simple addition, that’s 4 more.  THANKS SO MUCH for all of the kind letters.  I am SO touched.