Greetings patrons. The PNW may
finally get a few days of wet
weather starting later this
week. Beforehand, expect a weak
system to push by late Monday
and Tuesday; some shower
possible. Long-range outlook
does show a return to the dry
side by Feb 16. Read on.
Upper level pattern should shift
just enough by late Thursday to
bring a series of systems
onshore for decent shot of rain,
mountain snow, and breezy
conditions through the weekend
and into early next week. Most
of the moderate rain will strike
Vancouver Island and NW corner
of WA, but all western locations
should receive measurable precip
over a few days. Thurs/Fri and
late Sunday look to be on the
windy side.
Models indicate another mild El
Nino pattern returning again in
the Feb 16 - 24 period, with
another notable round of
moderate to heavy RAIN hitting
central / southern CA February
19 - 23 and the PNW remaining
mostly DRY and mild. Not much
moisture to help with the snow
situation in the higher
elevation venues for the
Olympics (after, hopefully, some
snow this weekend). As noted
earlier: storms approach from
the west, then stretch out under
a split flow aloft, weakening
enough to only usher in clouds
and maybe a shower or too.
Nationally, after the big snow
maker in the east, more COLD
ARCTIC AIR will drop south
mid-week with another decent
snow event probable Wed & Thur
for many. The eastern 1/3 of the
nation will remain quite COLD
late February.
In summary: wet in the PNW
Thursday - Monday; then more dry
than wet for the balance of
February. Let's hope this
changes.
"Men fight for freedom then
start making laws to get rid of
it."
SNOW
ROLLERS:
Nature's
way to
"mirror"
man-made
bails of
hay!
Cylindrical
masses
of snow
that
form
when
wind
picks up
snow
moist
enough
to be
cohesive
and
rolls it
down a
slope.
While
not
uncommon
in
mountainous
or hilly
regions,
it is a
bit
unusual
for this
late in
the
year.
[Adapted
from
Glossary
of
Meteorology,
AMS
publication]
Snow
Rollers
from the
PNW!
A fellow
WxCafé®
patron
shared
this
info.
Image,
courtesy
of Tim
Tevebaugh,
taken
March
31,
2009.
Please,
click on
this
NOAA
link for
the full
story.
HEAT WAVE: A period of abnormally
and
uncomfortably
hot and
usually
humid
weather.
Back in
1900, A.T.
Burrows
defined a
'hot wave'
as a spell
of three or
more days
during which
the maximum
temperature
in the shade
reaches at
least 90
degrees F on
each day.
While more
recent
definitions
have been
tailored to
reflect
local
conditions -
that is, the
'comfort
criteria' is
dependent on
the normal
conditions
of the
specific
region, your
WxCafé®
prefers to
stick closer
to Burrow's
criteria.
[Adapted
from
Glossary of
Meteorology,
AMS
publication]
A GLORY
is a
delightful phenomenon formed
when light is scattered
backwards by individual
water droplets. The light
source usually is the sun.
Glories are visible
directly opposite the sun,
centered at the antisolar
point below the horizon
except at sunrise and
sunset. While an observer’s
shadow plays no role in the
phenomenon, it provides an
easy way to find the
antisolar point. This is
because shadows converge on
the antisolar point,
therefore, glories typically
accompanied by your shadow
or that of the aircraft you
are in.
Mountain climbers and folks
in aircraft see glories.
When the shadow itself is
oddly distorted by
perspective it is called a
"Brocken spectre".
The image here is that of a
brocken spectre taken in NE
England by photographer
Vincent Lowe (shown
w/permission) in February
2006. Wiki
Hopegill Head
for a look at this beautiful
‘fell’.
The sky this morning
(8/31/07 8:20 a.m.)
was striking. I
simply had to
capture the image.
Cirrus clouds are
ice-crystals at
altitudes generally
>20,000 ft. Some
cirrus formations
tend to foretell an
approaching warm
front.
AURORAS:
A
strong solar
wind stream
approached
the Earth a
couple of
days ago
(Jan 19,
20), which
triggered
polar
geomagnetic
storms
yielding a
night light
show 'to
believe in.'
Please
enjoy, with
personal
permission
granted The WxCafé®
by the
photographers,
these two
images.
ICELAND:Sean
Micheal
Scully took
his
photo
between 10
and 11 pm
(after the
moon had
set) in
Akureyri,
Iceland. He
writes, "The
auroras were
extremely
bright and
intense at
times; fast
moving
curtains
ranged in
color from
green to
bright red
(and
possibly
purple). The
displays
became
visible just
after sunset
(~6 pm) and
filled up to
80% of the
sky."
NORWAY:Øystein
Lunde
Ingvaldsen
also
captured the
sky show,
writing, "It
was cloudy
and rainy
all day, but
suddenly the
sky cleared
up and the
northern
lights
danced for
us!" Enjoy
his picture
from Boe in
Vesteralen
in Norway.
FINGERLING
RIDGE.
Prog chart
illustrating the
"fingerling" ridge
of high pressure
over western U.S. -
early January 2010.
GRAPH OF SUNSPOT
ACTIVITY DURING 2009.
Courtesy of one of
The WxCafe's®
favorite websites (spaceweather.com).
FYI: the number of
spotless days in
2009 were 260 (71%);
771 days since
2004. In a typical
solar minimum the
number of spotless
days runs 485, so
the sun has been
exceedingly 'quiet'
for much of the
decade ending
today. Is that
about to end?
PATRONS:
Amazing
images
and
report
from Norway
concerning
the
Blue
Spiral in
the sky.
Click the
image to
view
the article,
more photos
and YouTube
videos of the
event.
Many suspect
Russian
missile
test. Some
even suspect
Santa was
testing a
new 'ride'
for his busy
night later
this month.
(Image
by Rex
Features)
GFS
FORECAST
for early
morning Tues
Dec 8
showing the
COLD air at
5,000 ft
over the PNW.
ENTERING A
MILD EL NIÑO
CYCLE:
Many WxCafé®
patrons ask
what the
winter of
2009 - 2010
will be like
here in the
PNW. Will
it be cold
snowy, wet,
mild,
etc.?Veteran patrons
recognize
that
prognostications
at The
Weather Café®
only extend
out 2 or 3
weeks at a
time.
Anything
past that is
for the
wisdom of
others
to discern.
That said,
scientists
are
continuing
to
understand
the impact
of El Niño
and La Niña
events. Take
a peek at
the charts
here to make
your own
comparisons
between early
Jan, 2009
and Jan,
2010 surface
temperatures
(SST)
of the
Pacific
ocean across
the
equatorial
zone west of
South
America. No
doubt, it is
warmer than
it has been
for the past
few years.
Hence, many
are calling
for a
mild El Niño
cycle in
weather
patterns
across North
America, and
elsewhere. Grab
your
morning beverage
and stop in
The Weather
Café®
as
winter unfolds.
SST Jan,
2009
SST Jan,
2010
FRENCH HORNET
INVASION:
Being an
entomologist, one cannot resist comment on
this story. The Vespids, hornet family of
insects, apparently entered the western
European region by 'hitchhiking' on ceramic
pottery from China. Many species of insects
have established populations in new
geographic regions of the earth by
inadvertently being transferred with the
movements of humanity. Global Warming is NOT
in play here. Conditions in Europe are
favorable for the survival and territorial
expansion of this species in the region.
Had the hornet piggybacked a ride to France
100 yrs ago, the species could still have
survived and migrated across the region. Oh
yeah, did you also hear this week that
global warming is blamed for elevating
children's fevers? You get my point.
"Just found your website and I am
enjoying the real life weather
predictions compared to all the drawn
out confusion of the TV weather
forecasters. Keep up the good work.
Also, I heard from some kids that you
were at Pratum School and they loved
you! You made the weather come alive for
them." - Silverton OR. 12-10-09
"I have been able to prepare my bee
hives for up coming storms and keep them
alive with the information you provide.
Thank you for sharing weather reports
that I trust and don't have to filter
through all the media drama."
-beekeeper in the Snoqualmie Valley, WA
"You are a focal point of our week, for
all us farmers. We quote you, celebrate
or bemoan the good/bad news of weather
that is to come from your uncanny
weather predictions (we think you are
half animal, sniffing the air and
knowing what lies ahead!) We are
tickled by your beverage-speak, and the
little glimpses of your life that we get
in our weekly weather updates." -
Snoqualmie Valley Growers, WA
"Your sound ability to predict PNW
weather is uncanny. Your accuracy has
been shared quite a bit by my
co-workers, it has helped me in planning
trips and 'To-Do' items very well,
Thanks for the efforts!" -Portland
Oregon
"Just a quick "note" to say thank you!
Your forecasts have information of
value, but even more, they show a sense
of humor and personality. I appreciate
that in a person." -Gresham, OR
"You seem
to be the only weather person on the
continent who can intelligently predict
what's coming next. Thanks for the
website. We will definitely let OVS know
how much we enjoy the site. Hope they
keep you forever!" -Sarasota, Florida
"The more I travel and mention your
report, the more people say they have
been getting it and relying on it. You
are a great help to all of us in the
food business." -Los Angeles, CA
“Thank
you, Rufus. We speak of you as if
we know you: ‘Let’s see what Rufus
says on Monday’ and so forth. Your
work is esteemed. –Kent, WA
“It’s just
right, that is, concise, detailed enough
but not too wordy.” –Willamette Valley,
OR
“I
particularly like your forecasts because
they are not bogged down with details –
just straight and to the point with
enough humor to keep everyone
interested.” –Boring, OR
“I, for
one, really appreciate what you do!! I
actually plan my life around what you
write, and I haven’t been sorry once.”
–Corvallis, OR
Rufus - Finally a weather forecast I can
rely on to help me make better decisions for
my nursery.
Simple things like: should we take the poly
off the greenhouses today or just roll up
the sides; can we move the gunneras outside
yet, etc ... well let's go see what Rufus is
predicting.
Even when you aren't "dead-on" accurate the
trend is always just as you said and your
understanding of agricultural issues makes a
world of difference in the helpfulness of
your forecasts.
Thanks from Scappoose, OR
Dear Rufus,
I am really blown away how accurate and far ahead
your forecasts are.
Once again you announce a major weather event FAR in
advance, and the knuckleheads in the media wait
until it is upon us.
Why is that?
Over the last few years you have warned of several
major events far into advance.
Very good work!
Thanks again! -Salem, OR
Rufus graduated with
honors in Biology from California State University
Humboldt
and completed a Master’s degree in Entomology at
Oregon State.
Beginning in 1979,
Rufus has focused on developing environmentally
sound management programs for insects on small
fruits and stored grain products.
Since the early part of
his scientific career, Rufus has been an advocate
for the practical application of meteorology in the
life sciences. For nearly 30 years, he has prepared
weather forecasts for friends and colleagues.
In 1994, Rufus initiated his virtual Weather Café®.
The Weather Café®
provides uniquely informative long-range forecasts
for specific patrons in the PNW. It is a
free service for patrons from British Columbia to
northern California.
In the spring of 2005,
the Council of the American Meteorological Society
elected Rufus as a full member of the Society
– a long time personal goal.
Humboldt
and completed a Master’s degree in Entomology at
Oregon State.