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 Current Forecast

Monday - August 30, 2010

Up and Down

Last week of summer vacation for many PNW patrons. Some rain likely but also a couple of nice, warm days. Let's see what can be expected.

Another, stronger trough of low pressure modeled to dip over the PNW late Monday, departing Wednesday. Expect RAIN and showers, esp Salem north. Quarter inch possible for some. Wouldn't that be refreshing? As Thurs and Friday arrive, sunny, warm days will prevail heading into the weekend.

Labor Day Weekend: by Saturday another weak trough will arrive, increasing cloudiness and definitely cool W to NW breezes, esp along the coast. The system, right now, doesn't appear to be a wet one, so more clouds than dampness. For Tues and Wed, Sept 7-8, showers possible for west side patrons.

Week of School: for many, school will kick-in and slowly warmer weather Thur and Fri will work its way back into the PNW. Weekend of Sept 10,11 looks dry and in the upper 70s and 80s for most. Warmer still by Tues Sept 14. 90s???

Tropical Activity: EARL now strengthening and heading for a real messy situation along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Tracking could bring EARL right up against Virginia shoreline, then drag right along the coast, with strongest winds hitting Wash DC and NY areas. Very heavy surf, erosion issues will prevail well up into the New England states. The trough of low pressure that moved into the PNW will push into the mid-west causing EARL to 'roll up' the coast. FIONA may be named later this week, as well. This storm will track right on the tail of EARL, but could move a tad farther east, so not quite the impact. All that can change, of course. Two more systems setting up off Africa this week; lots to monitor.

For this Monday's humor, PLEASE go The WxCafe Graffiti Box (TM) http://tinyurl.com/WxCafe and determine if you will grant the founder a pardon!

Happily in Oregon this week,

-Rufus

Topical Tropical

EARL well set to cause major issues along nearly the entire eastern seaboard, as projected. Media covering storm adequately enough. Our 'call out' here, therefore, will be for HDG to be sure to review power outage plans as a precaution. Even though EARL's winds will weaken considerably by the time it is close by Maryland, it's always best to be prepared.

FIONA will not have much "fuel" left in the wake of EARL, and will track more easterly, pushed back by the upper level trough that is modeled to nudge EARL just off the shoreline (we hope). The storm will keep surf up along the Atlantic coast, north of Virginia.

GASTON now named and gathering strength. Westward movement is slowing, allowing for increased intensity before threatening the Caribbean islands. The upper atmosphere will 'wet up' again and be favorable to intensification, as opposed to FIONA. My read of the extended model solutions indicates that GASTON may wander north before making an unusual loop back SW towards the Atlantic seaboard. Could end up following EARL's trailblazing. Too early for definites, but this could be a storm with impact like EARL.

The formation of soon-to-be-named HERMINE just now moving off the west coast of Africa. HERMINE may pose the biggest threat to FL or even Gulf of Mexico of the series, to date, because upper level winds may hold movement across the southern zone of hurricane action.

What will become IGOR is now over the African Congo region.

PNW weather for first half of Sept looks cool, DAMP. More tomorrow.
 

Patron-to-Patron Stories


The Windstorm of Dec 14, 2006
“Virtual Tips” left on the ole’ WxCafé counter

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Definitions of Meteorological Terms The WxCafé Graffiti Box™

SNOW ROLLERS:  Nature's way to "mirror" man-made bails of hay!  Cylindrical masses of snow that form when wind picks up snow moist enough to be cohesive and rolls it down a slope.  While not uncommon in mountainous or hilly regions, it is a bit unusual for this late in the year.  [Adapted from Glossary of Meteorology, AMS publication]

Snow Rollers from the PNW!  A fellow WxCaf
é patron shared this info.  Image, courtesy of Tim Tevebaugh, taken March 31, 2009.  Please, click on this NOAA link for the full story.   

HEAT WAVE: A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather.  Back in 1900, A.T. Burrows defined a 'hot wave' as a spell of three or more days during which the maximum temperature in the shade reaches at least 90 degrees F on each day.  While more recent definitions have been tailored to reflect local conditions - that is, the 'comfort criteria' is dependent on the normal conditions of the specific region, your WxCafé prefers to stick closer to Burrow's criteria. [Adapted from Glossary of Meteorology, AMS publication]

A GLORY is a delightful phenomenon formed when light is scattered backwards by individual water droplets. The light source usually is the sun.  Glories are visible directly opposite the sun, centered at the antisolar point below the horizon except at sunrise and sunset.  While an observer’s shadow plays no role in the phenomenon, it provides an easy way to find the antisolar point.  This is because shadows converge on the antisolar point, therefore, glories typically accompanied by your shadow or that of the aircraft you are in.

Mountain climbers and folks in aircraft see glories.

When the shadow itself is oddly distorted by perspective it is called a "Brocken spectre".

The image here is that of a brocken spectre taken in NE England by photographer Vincent Lowe (shown w/permission) in February 2006.  
Wiki Hopegill Head for a look at this beautiful ‘fell’.


The sky this morning (8/31/07 8:20 a.m.) was striking. I simply had to capture the image. Cirrus clouds are ice-crystals at altitudes generally >20,000 ft.  Some cirrus formations tend to foretell an approaching warm front.

Point-Source CO2 Polluter Caught in the Act:
Given the EPA’s declaration that carbon dioxide (CO2) is now an official “health hazard," the founder of The Weather Café® thought it prudent to come before the Board of Patrons and ask for a pardon.

Be it hereby disclosed that following a week of relaxation on Scout Lake (in the Cascades of Oregon), Rufus was digitally documented releasing an environmental pollutant into the air within the boundaries of a National Forest. Authorities commented that said polluter had been observed over several consecutive days in a prone position on a “device inflated with a known toxic gas.” It was further noted that the device had been previously filled to capacity with the gaseous discharge from a reservoir owned by the polluter himself – a human lung – and then deliberately discharged into the atmosphere after use.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLAY A KEY ROLE IN WEATHER PATTERNS. It is Interesting to note the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean west of the PNW for June 20, 2010, as compared to the same for June 13, 2009. Much COLDER SSTs are noted for Pacific, relative to last year. A mild La Nina is also setting up in the Pacific tropical zone (look west of South America) - which is opposite of last year at this time. Also, compare Atlantic sea surface temps west of Africa and in the Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico 2009 to 2010. Much warmer water can fuel tropical depressions into stronger storms.

   

SST June 20, 2010  

SST June 13, 2009

JAN 1 - MAY 2 DAY DEGREE / HEAT UNIT CHART Current status of heat unit / day degree accumulation from Jan 1 through May 2. For comparison, graph shows 2009 and 2007. As patrons recall, 2009 was a "late" year for many PNW crop harvests (similar, but not quite as late as 2008). For our purpose here, the 2007 figures are shown, as that year had relatively normal timing for most ag crops in the PNW. All figures are calculated using the same double sine,min/max temps formula. Your WxCafé™ will update in another month or so. For our Abbotsford patrons: values are similar to Bellingham. How to use this chart -- A typical PNW day at 70-75F will yield approx. 10-15 DD units. Divide the chart DD difference between years for your location by 12 to estimate how many days 'ahead' you are relative to previous years.

AURORAS:  A strong solar wind stream approached the Earth a couple of days ago (Jan 19, 20), which triggered polar geomagnetic storms yielding a night light show 'to believe in.' Please enjoy, with personal permission granted The WxCafé by the photographers, these two images.

ICELAND: Sean Micheal Scully took his photo between 10 and 11 pm (after the moon had set) in Akureyri, Iceland. He writes, "The auroras were extremely bright and intense at times; fast moving curtains ranged in color from green to bright red (and possibly purple). The displays became visible just after sunset (~6 pm) and filled up to 80% of the sky."

NORWAY: Øystein Lunde Ingvaldsen also captured the sky show, writing, "It was cloudy and rainy all day, but suddenly the sky cleared up and the northern lights danced for us!" Enjoy his picture from Boe in Vesteralen in Norway.

FINGERLING RIDGE. Prog chart illustrating the "fingerling" ridge of high pressure over western U.S. - early January 2010.

GRAPH OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY DURING 2009 Courtesy of one of The WxCafe's favorite websites (spaceweather.com).  FYI:  the number of spotless days in 2009 were 260 (71%); 771 days since 2004.  In a typical solar minimum the number of spotless days runs 485, so the sun has been exceedingly 'quiet' for much of the decade ending today.  Is that about to end?

Having coffee watching a beautiful  SUNRISE on the Channel Islands  beach in Oxnard, CA, Fri Dec 18,  2009

PATRONS: Amazing images and report from Norway concerning the Blue Spiral in the sky. Click the image to view the article, more photos and YouTube videos of the event. Many suspect Russian missile test. Some even suspect Santa was testing a new 'ride' for his busy night later this month.                 (Image by Rex Features)

GFS FORECAST for early morning Tues Dec 8 showing the COLD air at 5,000 ft over the PNW.

ENTERING A MILD EL NIÑO CYCLE:  Many WxCafé patrons ask what the winter of 2009 - 2010 will be like here in the PNW.  Will it be cold snowy, wet, mild, etc.?Veteran patrons recognize that prognostications at The Weather Café® only extend out 2 or 3 weeks at a time.  Anything past that is for the wisdom of others to discern.  That said, scientists are continuing to understand the impact of El Niño and La Niña events.  Take a peek at the charts here to make your own comparisons between early Jan, 2009 and Jan, 2010 surface temperatures (SST) of the Pacific ocean across the equatorial zone west of South America.  No doubt, it is warmer than it has been for the past few years.  Hence, many are calling for a mild El Niño cycle in weather patterns across North America, and elsewhere.  Grab your morning beverage and stop in The Weather Café® as winter unfolds.

   SST Jan, 2009          SST Jan, 2010

FRENCH HORNET INVASION: Being an entomologist, one cannot resist comment on this story. The Vespids, hornet family of insects, apparently entered the western European region by 'hitchhiking' on ceramic pottery from China. Many species of insects have established populations in new geographic regions of the earth by inadvertently being transferred with the movements of humanity. Global Warming is NOT in play here. Conditions in Europe are favorable for the survival and territorial expansion of this species in the region.

Had the hornet piggybacked a ride to France 100 yrs ago, the species could still have survived and migrated across the region. Oh yeah, did you also hear this week that global warming is blamed for elevating children's fevers? You get my point.


Display Previous WxCafé Graffiti Box Items

What people are saying about The Weather Café®

"Do you KNOW how wonderful it is to have such an ear-to-the-ground weatherman??? Although the weather this season has made us grumpy farmers, we for sure do not wish to kill the messenger. You are a treasure, we are so dang lucky to have you out there, reading our skies in your RainMan way for us (especially THIS spring…) You are uncanny in your aptness!" -East of Redmond, WA

"Just found your website and I am enjoying the real life weather predictions compared to all the drawn out confusion of the TV weather forecasters. Keep up the good work. Also, I heard from some kids that you were at Pratum School and they loved you! You made the weather come alive for them." - Silverton OR. 12-10-09

"I have been able to prepare my bee hives for up coming storms and keep them alive with the information you provide. Thank you for sharing weather reports that I trust and don't have to filter through all the media drama."  
-beekeeper in the Snoqualmie Valley, WA

"You are a focal point of our week, for all us farmers.  We quote you, celebrate or bemoan the good/bad news of weather that is to come from your uncanny weather predictions (we think you are half animal, sniffing the air and knowing what lies ahead!)  We are tickled by your beverage-speak, and the little glimpses of your life that we get in our weekly weather updates."   - Snoqualmie Valley Growers, WA

"Your sound ability to predict PNW weather is uncanny. Your accuracy has been shared quite a bit by my co-workers, it has helped me in planning trips and 'To-Do' items very well, Thanks for the efforts!" -Portland Oregon

"Just a quick "note" to say thank you! Your forecasts have information of value, but even more, they show a sense of humor and personality. I appreciate that in a person." -Gresham, OR

"You seem to be the only weather person on the continent who can intelligently predict what's coming next. Thanks for the website. We will definitely let OVS know how much we enjoy the site. Hope they keep you forever!" -Sarasota, Florida

"The more I travel and mention your report, the more people say they have been getting it and relying on it. You are a great help to all of us in the food business." -Los Angeles, CA

“Thank you, Rufus.  We speak of you as if we know you:  ‘Let’s see what Rufus says on Monday’ and so forth.  Your work is esteemed.  –Kent, WA

“It’s just right, that is, concise, detailed enough but not too wordy.” –Willamette Valley, OR

“I particularly like your forecasts because they are not bogged down with details – just straight and to the point with enough humor to keep everyone interested.” –Boring, OR

“I, for one, really appreciate what you do!! I actually plan my life around what you write, and I haven’t been sorry once.” –Corvallis, OR


Rufus - Finally a weather forecast I can rely on to help me make better decisions for my nursery.

Simple things like: should we take the poly off the greenhouses today or just roll up the sides; can we move the gunneras outside yet, etc ... well let's go see what Rufus is predicting.

Even when you aren't "dead-on" accurate the trend is always just as you said and your understanding of agricultural issues makes a world of difference in the helpfulness of your forecasts.

Thanks from Scappoose, OR


Dear Rufus,
I am really blown away how accurate and far ahead your forecasts are.

Once again you announce a major weather event FAR in advance, and the knuckleheads in the media wait until it is upon us.
Why is that?

Over the last few years you have warned of several major events far into advance.
Very good work!  Thanks again! -Salem, OR


About Rufus La Lone

Rufus graduated with honors in Biology from California State University Humboldt and completed a Master’s degree in Entomology at Oregon State.

Beginning in 1979, Rufus has focused on developing environmentally sound management programs for insects on small fruits and stored grain products. 

Since the early part of his scientific career, Rufus has been an advocate for the practical application of meteorology in the life sciences. For nearly 30 years, he has prepared weather forecasts for friends and colleagues.  In 1994, Rufus initiated his virtual Weather Café®.

The Weather Café® provides uniquely informative long-range forecasts for specific patrons in the PNW.   It is a free service for patrons from British Columbia to northern California.

In the spring of 2005, the Council of the American Meteorological Society elected Rufus as a full member of the Society  – a long time personal goal.

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