Notice: This is a
secure area of our web site,
all "bookmarks" begin at our
Home page
Current
Forecast
Monday - August 30, 2010
Up and Down
Last week of summer vacation for many PNW patrons. Some rain likely but also a couple of nice, warm days. Let's see what can be expected.
Another, stronger trough of low pressure modeled to dip over the PNW late Monday, departing Wednesday. Expect RAIN and showers, esp Salem north. Quarter inch possible for some. Wouldn't that be refreshing? As Thurs and Friday arrive, sunny, warm days will prevail heading into the weekend.
Labor Day Weekend: by Saturday another weak trough will arrive, increasing cloudiness and definitely cool W to NW breezes, esp along the coast. The system, right now, doesn't appear to be a wet one, so more clouds than dampness. For Tues and Wed, Sept 7-8, showers possible for west side patrons.
Week of School: for many, school will kick-in and slowly warmer weather Thur and Fri will work its way back into the PNW. Weekend of Sept 10,11 looks dry and in the upper 70s and 80s for most. Warmer still by Tues Sept 14. 90s???
Tropical Activity: EARL now strengthening and heading for a real messy situation along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Tracking could bring EARL right up against Virginia shoreline, then drag right along the coast, with strongest winds hitting Wash DC and NY areas. Very heavy surf, erosion issues will prevail well up into the New England states. The trough of low pressure that moved into the PNW will push into the mid-west causing EARL to 'roll up' the coast. FIONA may be named later this week, as well. This storm will track right on the tail of EARL, but could move a tad farther east, so not quite the impact. All that can change, of course. Two more systems setting up off Africa this week; lots to monitor.
For this Monday's humor, PLEASE go The WxCafe Graffiti Box (TM) http://tinyurl.com/WxCafe and determine if you will grant the founder a pardon!
Happily in Oregon this week,
-Rufus
Topical
Tropical
EARL
well set
to cause
major
issues
along
nearly
the
entire
eastern
seaboard,
as
projected.
Media
covering
storm
adequately
enough.
Our
'call
out'
here,
therefore,
will be
for HDG
to be
sure to
review
power
outage
plans as
a
precaution.
Even
though
EARL's
winds
will
weaken
considerably
by the
time it
is close
by
Maryland,
it's
always
best to
be
prepared.
FIONA
will not
have
much
"fuel"
left in
the wake
of EARL,
and will
track
more
easterly,
pushed
back by
the
upper
level
trough
that is
modeled
to nudge
EARL
just off
the
shoreline
(we
hope).
The
storm
will
keep
surf up
along
the
Atlantic
coast,
north of
Virginia.
GASTON
now
named
and
gathering
strength.
Westward
movement
is
slowing,
allowing
for
increased
intensity
before
threatening
the
Caribbean
islands.
The
upper
atmosphere
will
'wet up'
again
and be
favorable
to
intensification,
as
opposed
to
FIONA.
My read
of the
extended
model
solutions
indicates
that
GASTON
may
wander
north
before
making
an
unusual
loop
back SW
towards
the
Atlantic
seaboard.
Could
end up
following
EARL's
trailblazing.
Too
early
for
definites,
but this
could be
a storm
with
impact
like
EARL.
The
formation
of
soon-to-be-named
HERMINE
just now
moving
off the
west
coast of
Africa.
HERMINE
may pose
the
biggest
threat
to FL or
even
Gulf of
Mexico
of the
series,
to date,
because
upper
level
winds
may hold
movement
across
the
southern
zone of
hurricane
action.
What
will
become
IGOR is
now over
the
African
Congo
region.
PNW
weather
for
first
half of
Sept
looks
cool,
DAMP.
More
tomorrow.
SNOW
ROLLERS:
Nature's
way to
"mirror"
man-made
bails of
hay!
Cylindrical
masses
of snow
that
form
when
wind
picks up
snow
moist
enough
to be
cohesive
and
rolls it
down a
slope.
While
not
uncommon
in
mountainous
or hilly
regions,
it is a
bit
unusual
for this
late in
the
year.
[Adapted
from
Glossary
of
Meteorology,
AMS
publication]
Snow
Rollers
from the
PNW!
A fellow
WxCafé™
patron
shared
this
info.
Image,
courtesy
of Tim
Tevebaugh,
taken
March
31,
2009.
Please,
click on
this
NOAA
link for
the full
story.
HEAT WAVE: A period of abnormally
and
uncomfortably
hot and
usually
humid
weather.
Back in
1900, A.T.
Burrows
defined a
'hot wave'
as a spell
of three or
more days
during which
the maximum
temperature
in the shade
reaches at
least 90
degrees F on
each day.
While more
recent
definitions
have been
tailored to
reflect
local
conditions -
that is, the
'comfort
criteria' is
dependent on
the normal
conditions
of the
specific
region, your
WxCafé™
prefers to
stick closer
to Burrow's
criteria.
[Adapted
from
Glossary of
Meteorology,
AMS
publication]
A GLORY
is a
delightful phenomenon formed
when light is scattered
backwards by individual
water droplets. The light
source usually is the sun.
Glories are visible
directly opposite the sun,
centered at the antisolar
point below the horizon
except at sunrise and
sunset. While an observer’s
shadow plays no role in the
phenomenon, it provides an
easy way to find the
antisolar point. This is
because shadows converge on
the antisolar point,
therefore, glories typically
accompanied by your shadow
or that of the aircraft you
are in.
Mountain climbers and folks
in aircraft see glories.
When the shadow itself is
oddly distorted by
perspective it is called a
"Brocken spectre".
The image here is that of a
brocken spectre taken in NE
England by photographer
Vincent Lowe (shown
w/permission) in February
2006. Wiki
Hopegill Head
for a look at this beautiful
‘fell’.
The sky this morning
(8/31/07 8:20 a.m.)
was striking. I
simply had to
capture the image.
Cirrus clouds are
ice-crystals at
altitudes generally
>20,000 ft. Some
cirrus formations
tend to foretell an
approaching warm
front.
Point-Source
CO2 Polluter
Caught in
the Act:
Given the
EPA’s
declaration
that carbon
dioxide
(CO2) is now
an official
“health
hazard," the
founder of
The Weather
Café®
thought it
prudent to
come before
the Board of
Patrons and
ask for a
pardon.
Be it hereby
disclosed
that
following a
week of
relaxation
on Scout
Lake (in the
Cascades of
Oregon),
Rufus was
digitally
documented
releasing an
environmental
pollutant
into the air
within the
boundaries
of a
National
Forest.
Authorities
commented
that said
polluter had
been
observed
over several
consecutive
days in a
prone
position on
a “device
inflated
with a known
toxic gas.”
It was
further
noted that
the device
had been
previously
filled to
capacity
with the
gaseous
discharge
from a
reservoir
owned by the
polluter
himself – a
human lung –
and then
deliberately
discharged
into the
atmosphere
after use.
SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES
PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN
WEATHER
PATTERNS.
It is
Interesting
to note the
sea surface
temperature
of the
Pacific
Ocean west
of the PNW
for June 20,
2010, as
compared to
the same for
June 13,
2009. Much
COLDER SSTs
are noted
for Pacific,
relative to
last year. A
mild La Nina
is also
setting up
in the
Pacific
tropical
zone (look
west of
South
America) -
which is
opposite of
last year at
this time.
Also,
compare
Atlantic sea
surface
temps west
of Africa
and in the
Caribbean /
Gulf of
Mexico 2009
to 2010.
Much warmer
water can
fuel
tropical
depressions
into
stronger
storms.
SST June 20,
2010
SST June 13,
2009
JAN
1 - MAY 2 DAY DEGREE
/ HEAT UNIT CHART
Current status of
heat unit / day
degree accumulation
from Jan 1 through
May 2. For
comparison, graph
shows 2009 and 2007.
As patrons recall,
2009 was a "late"
year for many PNW
crop harvests
(similar, but not
quite as late as
2008). For our
purpose here, the
2007 figures are
shown, as that year
had relatively
normal timing for
most ag crops in the
PNW. All figures are
calculated using the
same double sine,min/max
temps formula. Your
WxCafé™ will update
in another month or
so. For our
Abbotsford patrons:
values are similar
to Bellingham.
How to use this
chart -- A typical
PNW day at 70-75F
will yield approx.
10-15 DD units.
Divide the chart DD
difference between
years for your
location by 12 to
estimate how many
days 'ahead' you are
relative to previous
years.
AURORAS:
A
strong solar
wind stream
approached
the Earth a
couple of
days ago
(Jan 19,
20), which
triggered
polar
geomagnetic
storms
yielding a
night light
show 'to
believe in.'
Please
enjoy, with
personal
permission
granted The WxCafé™
by the
photographers,
these two
images.
ICELAND:Sean
Micheal
Scully took
his
photo
between 10
and 11 pm
(after the
moon had
set) in
Akureyri,
Iceland. He
writes, "The
auroras were
extremely
bright and
intense at
times; fast
moving
curtains
ranged in
color from
green to
bright red
(and
possibly
purple). The
displays
became
visible just
after sunset
(~6 pm) and
filled up to
80% of the
sky."
NORWAY:Øystein
Lunde
Ingvaldsen
also
captured the
sky show,
writing, "It
was cloudy
and rainy
all day, but
suddenly the
sky cleared
up and the
northern
lights
danced for
us!" Enjoy
his picture
from Boe in
Vesteralen
in Norway.
FINGERLING
RIDGE.
Prog chart
illustrating the
"fingerling" ridge
of high pressure
over western U.S. -
early January 2010.
GRAPH OF SUNSPOT
ACTIVITY DURING 2009.
Courtesy of one of
The WxCafe's™
favorite websites (spaceweather.com).
FYI: the number of
spotless days in
2009 were 260 (71%);
771 days since
2004. In a typical
solar minimum the
number of spotless
days runs 485, so
the sun has been
exceedingly 'quiet'
for much of the
decade ending
today. Is that
about to end?
PATRONS:
Amazing
images
and
report
from Norway
concerning
the
Blue
Spiral in
the sky.
Click the
image to
view
the article,
more photos
and YouTube
videos of the
event.
Many suspect
Russian
missile
test. Some
even suspect
Santa was
testing a
new 'ride'
for his busy
night later
this month.
(Image
by Rex
Features)
GFS
FORECAST
for early
morning Tues
Dec 8
showing the
COLD air at
5,000 ft
over the PNW.
ENTERING A
MILD EL NIÑO
CYCLE:
Many WxCafé™
patrons ask
what the
winter of
2009 - 2010
will be like
here in the
PNW. Will
it be cold
snowy, wet,
mild,
etc.?Veteran patrons
recognize
that
prognostications
at The
Weather Café®
only extend
out 2 or 3
weeks at a
time.
Anything
past that is
for the
wisdom of
others
to discern.
That said,
scientists
are
continuing
to
understand
the impact
of El Niño
and La Niña
events. Take
a peek at
the charts
here to make
your own
comparisons
between early
Jan, 2009
and Jan,
2010 surface
temperatures
(SST)
of the
Pacific
ocean across
the
equatorial
zone west of
South
America. No
doubt, it is
warmer than
it has been
for the past
few years.
Hence, many
are calling
for a
mild El Niño
cycle in
weather
patterns
across North
America, and
elsewhere. Grab
your
morning beverage
and stop in
The Weather
Café®
as
winter unfolds.
SST Jan,
2009
SST Jan,
2010
FRENCH HORNET
INVASION:
Being an
entomologist, one cannot resist comment on
this story. The Vespids, hornet family of
insects, apparently entered the western
European region by 'hitchhiking' on ceramic
pottery from China. Many species of insects
have established populations in new
geographic regions of the earth by
inadvertently being transferred with the
movements of humanity. Global Warming is NOT
in play here. Conditions in Europe are
favorable for the survival and territorial
expansion of this species in the region.
Had the hornet piggybacked a ride to France
100 yrs ago, the species could still have
survived and migrated across the region. Oh
yeah, did you also hear this week that
global warming is blamed for elevating
children's fevers? You get my point.
"Do you KNOW how wonderful it is to have
such an ear-to-the-ground weatherman???
Although the weather this season has
made us grumpy farmers, we for sure do
not wish to kill the messenger. You are
a treasure, we are so dang lucky to have
you out there, reading our skies in your
RainMan way for us (especially THIS
spring…) You are uncanny in your
aptness!" -East of Redmond, WA
"Just found your website and I am
enjoying the real life weather
predictions compared to all the drawn
out confusion of the TV weather
forecasters. Keep up the good work.
Also, I heard from some kids that you
were at Pratum School and they loved
you! You made the weather come alive for
them." - Silverton OR. 12-10-09
"I have been able to prepare my bee
hives for up coming storms and keep them
alive with the information you provide.
Thank you for sharing weather reports
that I trust and don't have to filter
through all the media drama."
-beekeeper in the Snoqualmie Valley, WA
"You are a focal point of our week, for
all us farmers. We quote you, celebrate
or bemoan the good/bad news of weather
that is to come from your uncanny
weather predictions (we think you are
half animal, sniffing the air and
knowing what lies ahead!) We are
tickled by your beverage-speak, and the
little glimpses of your life that we get
in our weekly weather updates." -
Snoqualmie Valley Growers, WA
"Your sound ability to predict PNW
weather is uncanny. Your accuracy has
been shared quite a bit by my
co-workers, it has helped me in planning
trips and 'To-Do' items very well,
Thanks for the efforts!" -Portland
Oregon
"Just a quick "note" to say thank you!
Your forecasts have information of
value, but even more, they show a sense
of humor and personality. I appreciate
that in a person." -Gresham, OR
"You seem
to be the only weather person on the
continent who can intelligently predict
what's coming next. Thanks for the
website. We will definitely let OVS know
how much we enjoy the site. Hope they
keep you forever!" -Sarasota, Florida
"The more I travel and mention your
report, the more people say they have
been getting it and relying on it. You
are a great help to all of us in the
food business." -Los Angeles, CA
“Thank
you, Rufus. We speak of you as if
we know you: ‘Let’s see what Rufus
says on Monday’ and so forth. Your
work is esteemed. –Kent, WA
“It’s just
right, that is, concise, detailed enough
but not too wordy.” –Willamette Valley,
OR
“I
particularly like your forecasts because
they are not bogged down with details –
just straight and to the point with
enough humor to keep everyone
interested.” –Boring, OR
“I, for
one, really appreciate what you do!! I
actually plan my life around what you
write, and I haven’t been sorry once.”
–Corvallis, OR
Rufus - Finally a weather forecast I can
rely on to help me make better decisions for
my nursery.
Simple things like: should we take the poly
off the greenhouses today or just roll up
the sides; can we move the gunneras outside
yet, etc ... well let's go see what Rufus is
predicting.
Even when you aren't "dead-on" accurate the
trend is always just as you said and your
understanding of agricultural issues makes a
world of difference in the helpfulness of
your forecasts.
Thanks from Scappoose, OR
Dear Rufus,
I am really blown away how accurate and far ahead
your forecasts are.
Once again you announce a major weather event FAR in
advance, and the knuckleheads in the media wait
until it is upon us.
Why is that?
Over the last few years you have warned of several
major events far into advance.
Very good work!
Thanks again! -Salem, OR
Rufus graduated with
honors in Biology from California State University
Humboldt
and completed a Master’s degree in Entomology at
Oregon State.
Beginning in 1979,
Rufus has focused on developing environmentally
sound management programs for insects on small
fruits and stored grain products.
Since the early part of
his scientific career, Rufus has been an advocate
for the practical application of meteorology in the
life sciences. For nearly 30 years, he has prepared
weather forecasts for friends and colleagues.
In 1994, Rufus initiated his virtual Weather Café®.
The Weather Café®
provides uniquely informative long-range forecasts
for specific patrons in the PNW. It is a
free service for patrons from British Columbia to
northern California.
In the spring of 2005,
the Council of the American Meteorological Society
elected Rufus as a full member of the Society
– a long time personal goal.