The WxCafe™

Half Dry

Posted by Rufus La Lone on October 03, 2025

Friday October 3

Good morning, Patron. ☕️ Grab that Mug and refill for the latest peek into the outlook for the first half of October 2025.

Currently, a cool, somewhat damp pattern remains over the PNW, with an occasional shower here & there, along with fall-cool temps. By Sunday the 5th, dry & warmer conditions will arrive.

Next week will start out dry and pleasant, with temps in the 70s most locations through Wed Oct 8. A ridge of high pressure will provide the favorable weather. A weak system may arrive sometime late Thu, bringing with it cloudiness, cooler temps, and possibly some precipitation. Fri the 10th does look rather wet & chilly, at least for now (models indicate uncertainty in this system getting close enough to the coast to usher in rainfall).

Weekend of Oct 11,12: trending wet & chilly on Sat, then turning dry again Sunday for another extending period of DRY & MILD conditions.

Early yet, but it we may get a return of some rainfall by Sunday Oct 19. Therefore, the first half of October will likely be mostly dry.

“Discretion is simply leaving a few things unsaid.”

-Rufus

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Wet Dry Repeat

Posted by Rufus La Lone on September 29, 2025

Monday September 29

On the road in Santa Cruz, so delayed posting. Not much has changed in the wx outlook for the next couple of weeks, so here goes - - -

Rain / Showers on & off all this week around the PNW, and to a lesser extent, northern CA. Drying over the coming Oct 4,5 weekend, with mild seasonal temperatures.

Week of Oct 6 - 10 should start off dry, then another couple of shots of rain & showers arrives Thu Oct 9 on into early Sat the 11th. The Low that will spawn the dampness is modeled to drop south, just off the coast of OR / northern CA, as the weekend progresses, so expect the moisture to stop. That Low will settle west of the Bay Area, so showers possible there, if the system moves close enough the CA coast.

It will turn DRY and seasonally warm early the week of Oct 13-17.

We’ll be back in the home office for this Friday's update. Ciao.

-Rufus

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Some Rain

Posted by Rufus La Lone on September 26, 2025

Friday September 26

Greetings from Gilroy, CA. Questions coming in about rain next week, so let’s get to the latest possibility. We are Mug ready here. You?

Dry Sep 26,27 weekend ahead, except for central Vancouver Island. Temps will remain Fall-mild.

Next week continues to present some precipitation, with a stretched out rain field approach the coasts of WA, OR & northern CA on Monday the 29th. Most areas should get a short-shot of steady rain, then showers lasting into the evening. Tue Sept 30th will begin with another system, which at this time, may hold more moisture and be centered across southern OR to start, before spreading broadly northward. Model solutions indicate deep Low pressure center (975 mb) that normally brings fairly strong winds inland, however, this time around the storm center will remain well offshore, so winds should remain minimal. Rain and shower overnight Tue. That Low will spin a secondary front over the PNW on Wed Oct 1 for additional rain/showers. By Thu the 2nd, that Low will move towards the NW corner of WA, with an increasing wind field for the Puget Sound, although not too strong. It should remain showery throughout the night, drying down on Fri Oct 3. Potato country (southern ID) will be wet mostly on Mon & Fri next week.

The PNW will catch a break in the rain action over the weekend of Oct 4,5. And, for the early portion of the Oct 6-10 week. Rain & showers will spread across the entire PNW again on Wed - Fri Oct 8-10. Colder, too. East side snow showers possible at higher elevations overnight Thu. A chilly Fri, with a widely scattered showers, will end the week.

Cumulative precipitation for the periods noted above: 1/2” to 3/4” in the lowlands west side, both WA & OR next week; then another inch or so added Wed - Fri Oct 8-10. Dry otherwise. Yes, there has been lots of variance in model runs, however, we have note moderate consistency for next week, and thus, forecast accordingly.

Heading to Monterey & Santa Cruz tomorrow. Hope to post again on Monday. Ciao.

-Rufus

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Inching Closer

Posted by Rufus La Lone on September 22, 2025

Fall Equinox - Monday September 22

Meteorological Fall began Sept 1; Astrological Fall begins today. Your latest forecast begins as soon as you get back here with a full Mug. Ready?

Warm week ahead, with temps climbing into the mid-80s in the Willamette Valley by mid-week; a bit cooler around the Puget Sound, as usual. Still, a decent ‘summer-like’ period to get the official Fall season started. It will cool down 10 degrees or so heading into the coming Sep 27,28 weekend, because of an increasing onshore flow. However, it will remain DRY. Rain is inching closer.

Rain Week. The closing days of September & beginning of October 2025 (week of Sep 29 - Oct 3) will be WET around the entire PNW. A series of 3 systems will begin to hit the PNW, starting over northern Vancouver Island before sunrise Mon the 29th. Steady rain from northern CA to Canada will fall by mid-day Monday. Wet all day Tue to end September. The second front of the series pushes onshore overnight Tue, with plenty of rain & showers on Wed Oct 1. The final storm front of the week arrives overnight Wed, with heavy rain as Thu Oct 2 gets started, esp. Eugene north. Drying down on Fri to end the first truly ‘fall rains’ period. Temps will be rather chilly. Of course, this detailed forecast scenario could change but, for now, plan accordingly should outdoor activities be scheduled that week. Cumulative precipitation expected during ‘rain week’ is anywhere from 1.25” to 2.5” Think Mud.

Weekend of Oct 4,5: Trending showery & cooler on Sat; drier by Sunday morning but notable chilly.

Oct 6-10 week is looking dry & warmer than the previous weekend. Rain may return to end the week. Maybe.

“Memory is the faculty that enables you to give someone most of your zip code.”

-Rufus

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Still Waiting

Posted by Rufus La Lone on September 19, 2025

Friday September 19

We still see rain ahead, with Oregon needing to wait a bit longer than our neighbors to the north. At least all of us can have a Mug of our fav morning beverage while in waiting.

Pleasant wx week will continue into most of Saturday. Rain will move in over Vancouver Island later on Saturday, spreading south & east as the night progresses. Oregon will likely get more clouds than rain, but some precip is likely, esp north of Salem by Sunday. Notably cooler for all. Sunshine should pop out late afternoon on Sunday.

Next week presents a change from our earlier forecast, with NO RAIN arriving, nor any wind event mid-week. Rather, it is now trending on the models as DRY and rather warm. Farm & construction operations will appreciate the favorable change; rake up those hazelnuts! That said, the PNW is experiencing a significant drought cycle since last April, so the region needs fall rains to show up soon. Anyway, Mon-Fri next week look dry, with warm temps cooling off a bit by late week. (Exception: the northern half of Vancouver Island likely to receive additional precip on the 26th.)

Weekend of Sep 27,28: Looking DRY & mild. However, a system may clip WA north of Seattle with some rain late Sunday the 28th.

Week of Sep 29 - Oct 3: Here’s when we may finally get the big shift into fall rains. The clipper bringing rain to northern Puget Sound will shift south enough to wet the entire area from Olympia north on Mon the 29th. Bigger changes will be taking place in the Gulf of Alaska, with a large upper-level trough forming, and a series of fronts developing to bring on wide-ranging rains to the PNW by overnight Tue Sep 30. This large rain-field should produce rain from Eureka CA up along the entire coast of BC and the Alaskan Panhandle. Yeah, a classic fall system. Dare we believe? Rain will slack off a bit Thu before picking back up on Fri Oct 3, primarily over western WA north. Fall cool.

Oct 4,5 Weekend: Threat for showers throughout the weekend. Fall cool.

“A conference is nothing more than an organized way of postponing a decision."

-Rufus

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