The rain has refreshed both land and people of the great PNW.  Thank goodness, because the coming dry spell will snap land & people right back into drought concerns.  Got your Mug ready?  Here goes - - 

 

Additional precipitation is possible today through Tue, before that pesky Low off the coast ‘fills in”.  Expect more sunshine by mid-week, with afternoon temperatures popping right back into summer mode by Thu & Fri.  Recall our Heads or Tails discussion from last week?  Well, Tails it is.   

 

Model solutions for the coming weekend have resolved away from any moisture or coolness, projecting instead rather warm-to-hot conditions.  In fact, the PNW is likely heading into a heat wave, with afternoon temps jumping into the 90s+ starting Sunday and continuing well into next week.  Coastal locations may get relief from an onshore breeze to mitigate the heat.  

 

The week of Jun 21-25 is trending DRY & HOT.  By Tue or Wed, temps may top the hottest of 2021 thus far for many west side locations.  Patrons in NW WA & southern BC will likely get in the summer heat mode, as well.  The only cooling possible depends on whether or not an onshore breezy picks up enough to push some marine air into west side valley locations.  Even then, it will probably remain too hot for Patrons that don’t like mid-to-upper 80s temps.  A major heat wave will grip UT & desert SW states.  

 

Weekend of Jun 26,27: while a long-way out on the charts, Sat is trending HOT, with temps possibly topping triple digits in the southern Willamette Valley, Roseburg, Medford areas.  Sunday could be - finally - the start of a period of COOL DOWN, with cooler air aloft drifting over the PNW;  resulting showers for both sides of the Cascades during the last week of Jun 2021.  

 

“You are getting old if it takes you longer to rest than it did to get tired.”  

 

 

The sound of rain will be on the wx stage the next few days.  What else?  Read on, Patron.

 

The Low pressure trough west of the coast, mentioned last week, is now in position to spin several bands of notable moisture across the PNW between now and Monday evening.  Imbedded thunderstorms should not be ruled out, esp Saturday evening.  Overall, there is a high probability for rainfall totals ranging in the 1/2" - 2” over the next 4 days in the lowlands.  We can sure use the precip.  

 

Next week will turn dry & WARM by mid-week, as temps rebound considerably, with highs topping out in the 80s in many west side OR locations; a upper 70s for Puget Sound.  That said, if the onshore breeze kicks-in strong enough (some solutions suggest this), that will tap down temps a bit, but still present dry conditions.  Friday the 18th could be in the low-to-mid 80s.  

 

Head or Tails.  Here’s where we get into a model coin flip.  Several model runs indicate that dry, warm-turning-hot conditions will prevail after our rainy period.  A few solutions bring in another round of rain/showers, keeping the region cooler, starting again next weekend.  Well, which do we go with?  Flip the coin for now.

 

  Heads -  the weekend of Jun 19,20 starts out on the warm side (80s) with increasing clouds from the NW by late Sat night and precipitation moving onshore sometime Sunday morning.  Wettest over NW WA.  On Mon Jun 21, moderate rain may work south into OR as a Low center directly over the state.  Cool air aloft could spawn thunderstorms south of Salem by Tue.  Showers continue over WA and NW OR into mid-week; past that, sun and warmth should return by late that week, into the last weekend of June.

 

  Tails - the other side of the model “coin” charts dry through the weekend of Jun 19,20 with an onshore breeze, with temperatures continuing to climb when as the following week (Jun 21-25) gets underway. Temp topping in the 90s for OR, bit cooler for Puget Sound.

 

If this has swirled your Mug too much, don’t worry, it will likely change anyway.   The bottom line:  we are going to receive a decent period of rain/showers, with warmer temps afterward.  How long that heated dry spell will last is the question.  We’ll sip through the updated model scenarios on Mon Jun 14.

 

A giggle from the ’net:  “Chocolate is vital for our survival.  Dinosaurs didn’t have chocolate and look what happened to them."

 

Ah, some rain did fall, spotty & mainly north of Portland.  We should forecast 'no rain' more often, that way the region can dig out of this drought.  Seriously, it was good for several locations to get dust-settling showers.  A bit more on the way before it turns warm again.  Mug up time.

The PNW will be under the influence of a large trough of Low pressure that has settled in, so expect rather cool temps, periods of cloudiness and an occasional shower over the next few days.  The wind should diminish, relative to this past weekend.  Another chance for measurable rain/showers is on tap for late Thu Jun 10 on into Fri the 11th because another, more ‘organized’ Low will set up west of the coast and slowly drift south through the 15th.  The result will be warmer temps, a bump-up in humidity and chance for showers and/or thunderstorms, mainly west side & along the west slopes of the Cascades.  Therefore, the coming weekend should be mild & carry a risk for a shower here & there.  

 

Although the possibility of a June heat wave keeps popping up on some model solutions, it is less likely to occur early in the week of Jun 14-18.  Models are trending for continued mild temps & WINDY conditions the first part of that week, with an onshore flow prevailing.  The serious HEAT will remain over the desert SW, NV & UT.  It will take a western shift in the Pacific High to set up a heat wave in the PNW.  As mentioned, that is possible at some point around Jun 18 or 20th.  Give or take a day or two.   We’ll keep you posted, for sure.  For now, seasonal temps and BREEZY conditions through the week of Jun 14-18. 

 

The weekend of Jun 19,20 is trending on the warmer side of the previous several days.  Could be quite WINDY again on the 20th.  Keep the iced tea & sunblock handy, as that weekend may be transitional into a summer heat wave Jun 21-25.  Repeating: some model solutions keep the PNW on the cool side that weekend, but we have seen too many model runs of the PNW heating up to dismiss that possibility outright.  

 

 

Rain watch continues.  Gee, it doesn’t look favorable in that regard.  

 

This weekend:  it will be on the windy side through the weekend.  Farm Drat. Cooler temps because of the onshore flow.  There could be a stray shower or two, esp north of Olympia, even that may hold off until later Sunday.  The wind should diminish a bit by Mon; although cooler air will remain overhead, the onshore pressure gradient weakens.  

 

Next week continues to look DRY, with a large area of Low pressure spinning its way south, well west of the coast.  The result will be a more southerly component to the air flow, with a breeze will be from the SW.  Mild temps, with higher humidity, esp by late week.  Dry the weekend of Jun 12,13.

 

Mid-June heat?  Well, model charts swing back-n-forth on the possibility of a notable heat wave during the week of Jun 14-18.  The most recent chart trend is for NO HEAT issues, just more of the same onshore flow, with showers possible esp north of Portland.  Other options have been for a delay in the heat-up, keeping the region cooler under an onshore flow until late week, then temps begin to build on into the weekend of Jun 19,20.  As stated earlier, this period is a bit far out there on the charts, so much will change.  

 

Bottom line: even with a few WA showers, we do not see needed rainfall over the next 2 weeks.  There is that outlier model run showing moderate rain north of Seattle Wed-Thu Jun 16,17.  Just say’n.

 

 

 

Here you go —

 

HEAT will be the game for a couple more days west of the Cascades; east side will remain in the heat until Fri.  As the weekend arrives, so too will cooler onshore conditions.  The region may experience a few showers over the weekend, esp on Sunday.  Vancouver Is. could get a few showers a bit earlier.  Across the PNW, winds will again pick-up.

 

Next week will be dry, although the cool air aloft may spur on some showers, esp along the Cascades.  Temperatures will return to mild (60s - 70s; warmer east side later in the week).  Review of the charts for the weekend of June 12,13 indicates WARMER temps, dry. 

 

Look Patron, the region needs precipitation - this is a drought.  In fact, 64% of PNW is in drought.  Willamette Valley in Severe Drought (drought.gov).  The week of June 14 could really compound the problem.  Here’s why.

 

Temperatures in the June 14-18 period are charting to build into the 90s and, indeed, triple-digit ranges for many locations, including southern Willamette Valley.  We’ll monitor this closely; we recognize it is 2 weeks out.  Still, should this verify, several crops will be negatively impacted.  Overall, water conservation will be wise, for all.